1972

1. About me … I run the Carbon Tax Center, an NGO in NYC. It’s my last (?) venture after a long career in eco-policy advocacy. 1972 1981 1993 1999

2. Let’s start with good news U.S. China U.K.

4. Electricity-Sector Success: By end of 2016, its emissions were 27% below 2005 levels, meeting 4/5 of Clean Power Plan 2030 goal. Clean energy caused nearly 60% of that drop. Fracking contributed less than half (despite getting the credit). Slices are changes from 2005. Gas figure reflects its CO2 but not methane. CO2 reductions credited to electricity savings were calculated by applying mean of coal’s and gas’s CO2 emission factors to kWh's that would have been generated, had electricity use grown after 2005 at 1975-2005 kWh/GDP rate.

5. Electricity Usage Is Flat Since 2005. Why? (It’s Not Because Economy Flattened. GDP Is Up 17%.) • Offshoring of manufacturing (and emissions). • Shifts from energy-intensive heavy mfg’ing to service industries. • Acceleration of EE in industry, home appliances, lighting. • Ratepayer-funded EE programs, in tandem with gov’t codes and standards for buildings, appliances and other end-use equipment. • Widening penetration of digital technologies in energy management, product design and manufacturing. • A robust business sector now finds, finances and delivers $$-saving efficiency imprvmnts in commercial buildings + multifamily housing. • Shift to urban living and delayed family formation, resulting in fewer and smaller dwellings with fewer/smaller power-hungry appliances.

6. If power-sector emissions are dropping, why do we still need a carbon tax? 1. So they’ll drop faster. 2. Because methane. 3. Other sectors need to be shrunk.

7. Policies to cut carbon fuels De-subsidize oil, coal, gas But direct FF subsidies are small in U.S. & most consuming nations Subsidize clean energy But expensive at scale; “clean” is politically determined Regulate energy-efficiency Yes. But limited reach: doesn’t touch usage • “dynamic capitalism” Tax / price fuels’ carbon content “Medicine” makes poor politics. Could this (finally) be changing?

8. Q: How does a carbon tax cut emissions? A: By incentivizing everyaction / policy / innovation / behavior / cultural norm that reduces use of fossil fuels. • Examples • Less travel • Less energy-intensive travel (bike, walk, pool, chain, higher mpg) • More reduce-reuse-recycle • Electricity mfg’ers switch from coal to gas; and both to renewables • Aircraft mfg’ers invest more in lightweight frames • Faster/broader uptake of energy-controlling digital tech • Infill development (vs. greenfield) • Urban development (vs. exurban & rural) • Less mechanized recreation • Shift in societal defaults to lower energy & less consumption • Greater reverence for nature (which reinforces the above) • Innovation we can’t foresee

9. Outlook for carbon taxes (old version) • No U.S. carbon tax while G.O.P. controls White House and Congress • Possible state carbon taxes • Persuade Greens (don’t repeat WA state) • Isolate denialist enablers • Join Citizens Climate Lobby

10. Outlook for carbon taxes (new version) Enhanced by two (potentially) significant recent developments 1. 2. Climate gaining “opinion salience” Possible carbon tax deal (CLC*) • Progressive features • Start @ $40/ton (aggressive) • Rise annually • Prog-Conservative feature • “Dividend” 100% of revenue • Conservative features • End EPA carbon reg’s • Indemnify FF producers • * = Climate Leadership Council Join / support Citizens Climate Lobby!