Systemic Thinking to Developing a Meta-Synthetic Support for Complex Issues

1. 16th JISR-IIASA Workshop on Methodologies and Tools for Complex System Modeling and Integrated Policy Assessment July 15-17, 2002,   IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria Systemic Thinking to Developing a Meta-Synthetic Support for Complex Issues Xijin Tang Institute of Systems Science Academy of Mathematics and Systems Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080 P.R.CHINA

2. Contents • Approaches to Complex Problems Solving • Meta-Synthesis Method • Developing Meta-Synthetic Tool for Complex Problem Solving xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

3. Customers • Man-Machine Meta-Synthetic Support for Macroeconomic Decision Making • A Major Project by Natural Science Foundation of China (1999-2003） • Computerized Support for Comprehensive Assessment of Weapon System • A Defense Innovation Project by Chinese Academy of Sciences（2001-2002) xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

4. Complex Problems • Socioeconomic Problem • Sustainable Development • Evaluation of large project especially R&D Projects Semi-Structured or Unstructured problems Open Complex Giant System (Qian, 1990) xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

5. Purposes When facing unknown problems, • does current framework of resources (Models, Knowledge) still work? • how to utilize current framework of knowledge and models? • how to integrate current resources ? • how to create new knowledge or models based on experts’ wisdom and ready framework of models with new data and information? xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

6. Approaches to Complex Problem Solving • Hard System Approaches • Soft System Approaches Hard OR vs. Soft OR Hard System Analysis vs. Soft System Analysis xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

7. Modeling Strategic Problem • Strategic Choice (J. K. Friend) • Soft Systems Methodology (P. Checkland) • Journey Making (previously known as SODA & Cognitive Mapping) developed by Colin Eden and colleagues at the Universities of Bath and Strathclyde • Dialog Mapping xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

8. Hard system approach systematic world end-means scheme optimization  satisfaction content-oriented positive-empirical models do the thing right Soft system approach systemic mind participation/debate learning  satisfying process-oriented interpretive methods do the right thing Comparisons between Hard and Soft System Approaches xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

9. Modern Oriental System Approaches • Shinayakana system approach (Sawaragi, etc. Japan, 90s) • i-System: Intelligence, Imagination, Involvement, Integration and Intervention • Meta-synthesis from qualitative to quantitative approach (Qian, et al. China, 90s) • Hall for Workshop of Meta-Synthetic Engineering (HWMSE) • Wu-li Shi-li Ren-li System Approach (Gu, et al. 90s) • Spiral System Methodology (Wang, China, 90s) xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

10. Systems Approach to Problem-Solving Cultural Facet Systemic Facet Technological Facet xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

11. Meta-Synthesis Method • Above meta-analysis method • Data, information, models, knowledge • From qualitative (expert knowledge and wisdom) to quantitative (quantitative analysis) • Making full use of breaking advances in IT • Formulating confident hypothesis vs. To be precisely tested, verified, and validated. • Workshop or Seminars for discussion and debate xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

12. A Practical Example Research on Man-Machine cooperated Meta-Synthetic Engineering System Supporting Macro Economy Decision-Making • A NSFC Major Project • 12 units, > 50 people • 4-year (99.06-03.06) xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

13. Project Organization Master Coordinating Group (0) Over=all Design Group Environment Group (1) Economy Group (2) Method Group (3) KDD and Cognition Group (4) ISS, CAS IA, CAS BIIC Tsinghua XJTU RMU BISE SHTU SDPC IP, CAS BNU HUST IA, CAS xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

14. Issues during Project Implementation • Multiple views, multi-institution involvement, multiple disciplines • Lack coordinating endeavors • Lack of actionable framework • Utilization of ready resources • Bottom-up research achievements xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

15. Bottom-up Research Halls for Meta-Synthesis xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

16. Some Methods and Computerzied Support • Brainstorming • Delphi • Voting • AHP • Other MCDM methods • Nominal Group Techniques xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

17. Final Product? ? Databases, Methods, Models, Tools, Halls for Meta-synthesis Input Output xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

18. What will NSFC see? Meta-Synthesis Practice • Aggregation of resources • One centralized hall / component-based • Distributed rooms / agent-based xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

19. Outcome? Cultural Facet Systemic Facet Technological Facet xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

20. Functions • Communication, Collaboration and Consensus building • Group Thinking • Group Decision Making xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

21. Group Work Activities Communication Various Knowledge Various Issues Collaboration New Knowledge Resolution Consensus xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

22. Divergent and Convergent Thinking Knowledge Creation Knowledge Synthesis Convergent Thinking Divergent Thinking xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

23. Knowledge Creation Knowledge Synthesis Convergent Thinking Divergent Thinking BA xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

24. Group Thinking Model Individual Thinking Cooperative Thinking Group as a Thinking Entity Collaborative Thinking Individual Thinking Individual Thinking Mase, et al .(1998) BA xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

25. Group 1 Economic Models (BIIC) Main Room (IA) Group 3 Discussion Room (XJTU) Group 2 Discussion Room (HUST) Models Tools Economic Models (SJTU) System Reconstruction Model (ISS) Room Beijing (BISE) DB Group 4 Discussion Room (ISS) KDD Models (Tsinghua) xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

26. Group Argumentation Template • Electronic Brainstorming Room (BAR) • Personal Viewer • Common Viewer (Seminar Blackboard) • Information View (Searching Engine) • Automatic Affinity Diagramming • Nominal Group Technique (NGT) xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn

27. Common Viewer

28. Personal View

29. xjtang@staff.iss.ac.cn