Resilience Systems Analysis [insert place and dates]

1. Resilience Systems Analysis [insert place and dates] [Insert a picture relevant to the context]

2. Introduction [Insert a picture relevant to the context]

3. [Fine tune the objectives according to your specific context and scoping question] Workshop Objectives By the end of the workshop participants will be able to: • Describe concepts linked to resilience such as risks, shocks, stresses, vulnerabilities and capacities; • Share a vision of current and future risks and their impact on the system; • Develop a road map to boost the system’s resilience.

4. Ground Rules/Principles of effective collaboration • Keep your mobile on silent • Close your laptop during all sessions • Be punctual, including after breaks • Participate and listen actively • Stay on the topic • Ensure there is one conversation at a time • Respect each other Any additional points ?

5. Workshop Agenda [Paste a picture of your workshop agenda here]

6. Workshop’s scoping question [Modify this column to include elements from your scoping question]

7. 5 Modules 1 3 2 4 Developing a roadmap to strengthen resilience Risks, stresses and their impact on systems Analysis of stakeholders and processes influencing the system Analysis of characteristics of the system’s components Identifying gaps in the system’s resilience Past, Present, Future Estimation of negative and positive impacts of each shocks on each system component Past, Present, Future Past, Present, Future Present Future Definition of analysis scoping question Exercices Review of stakeholders processes, size and influence related to access to system components Discussion on the ability of system components to resist the expected combined impacts of the external context + the internal pressure Identification of risk adverse and risk taking actors Analysis of causes and effects linking covariate, idiosyncretic, seasonal, cyclical risks, low impact and high frequency events with stressors Prioritizing and sequencing possible actions to support the three types of capacities for each system component Analysis of components vulnerability and capacity and change linked with internal pressure Identification of current actions by external actors to support existing strategies when facing shocks Brainstorming on measures to boost resilience Listing of livelihoods assets per capital group Listing of system components Exploring how to measure impact of the actions aiming at strengthening resilience Ranking of system component from the least to the most affected Analysis of main risks’ severity Products List of stakeholders and processes per society level Graphical representation of causes and effect linking risks with stressors Two lists of system components : the most and the least affected by chocks. Comparison between local lessons learnt and external best practice to reinforce pathways of weaknesses and support pathways of strengths Roadmap with short, medium and long term actions to strengthen resilience. Stakeholder map. Current and future risk heatmaps Identification of interdependency between system’s components Identification of key stakeholders and processes to be engaged with List of current actions by external stakeholders for each system component classified per capacity . Analysis sheet per risk Mapping of existing databases and gaps List of measures to exploit to exploit opportunities, to change systems in perpetual negative state and to add capacities and reduce vulnerabilities. Identification of existing absorption, adaptation, transformation strategies List of potential opportunities triggered by specific risks

8. How to ensure we reach the workshop’s objectives • Active and balanced participation • Daily evaluation and daily review • Suggestion Box • Final evaluation • Participant Action Plans

9. Security and Logistics • x [Add a few key points]

10. INTRODUCTORY module: Whatisresilience? [Insert a picture relevant to the context]

11. Module Aim To provide an overview of definitions and concepts to deepen understanding of resilience [Insert a picture relevant to the context]

12. Module Objectives • List key words to define idiosyncratic and covariate shocks, risks and stresses and resilience • Explain the three types of capacities which contribute to strengthening resilience. • Describe the added value of resilience, compared to Risk Reduction approaches

13. What is risk?

14. Terminology: Risks, Shocks and Stresses Past Future • Shocks • Crisis • Disasters • Risks Seasonal shocks/ risks Recurring shocks/ risks Stresses • Idiosyncratic: impactingonly on specificelements of a system • Covariate : impacting on systems on a large scale • Stress: A long-term trend drivingshocks and risks

15. Resilience is the ability of households, communities and states – layers of society – to absorb and recover from shocks, whilst positively adapting and transforming their structures and means for living in the face of long-term, changing and uncertain impacts of stresses x Different Definitions: What is Resilience? • OECD definition • XXX • definition [Include the definition of the host of the workshop or a participating agency]

16. Resilience is the capacity to manage, adapt to, cope with or recover from stresses, shocks and disasters. Disaster Resilience is the ability of countries, communities and households to manage change, by maintaining or transforming living standards in the face of shocks or stresses - such as earthquakes, drought or violent conflict – without compromising their long-term prospects What is Resilience? Resilience is the ability of people, households, communities, countries, and systems to mitigate, adapt to and recover from shocks and stresses in a manner that reduces chronic vulnerability and facilitates inclusive growth. • DFID definition • IGAD definition • USAID definition

17. Three Capacities to boost Resilience • Intensity of change / transaction costs Adaptive capacity Transformative capacity Absorbtive/ coping capacity

18. Picturing what Resilience Systems Analysis is about

19. How can we actually boost resilience? An example from Mindanao island, Phillipines

20. A Complex Operating Context • • A complex risks panorama including natural and geopolitical risks • A complex conflict combining land issues with multiple rebellions • Marginalised minorities • Variety of ecosystems with intense exploitation of resources • Widespread poverty • Political and economic power in the hands of a few • Lack of harmonised legislation.

21. Key Success Factor: A technical approach supporting the three types of capacities

22. Key Success Factor: Various actors combining their efforts at different levels of society National Level RegionalLevel Local Level

23. Exercise 1 Strengthening Capacities at Different Levels of Society

24. Exercise 2 Definitions!

25. Review of Module Objectives • List key words to define idiosyncratic and covariate shocks, risk and stresses. • Describe the added value of Resilience compared to Risk Reduction approaches. • Explain the three types of capacities which contribute to boosting resilience.

26. Module 1 risks, stresses and their impact on systems [Insert a picture relevant to the context]

27. Module Aim Share a vision of covariate, idiosyncratic and low-impact recurring shocks, as well as stresses and their long-term role fuelling change and uncertainty for the system under analysis [Insert a picture relevant to the context]

28. Objectives • Identify the key events and stresses that have impacted on and will impact on the system • Describe the cause and effect relationships between these shocks and stresses • Plot the likelihood and impact of shocks, to prioritise the most severe ones both now and within the agreed timeframe.

29. Whatexternalevents trigger change in the system underanalysis? • What key shocks and stresses have caused significant changes in the system? • Are there low-impact but high frequency events that have an important cumulative effect on the system? • Are there seasonal or cyclical events that have an important effect on the system? • What are the characteristics of the most important shocks affecting the system (nature, intensity, duration, frequency, impact, trigger)?

30. Analysing Causes and EffectsbetweenShocks [Replace with a picture of the cause and effect map you came up with for the Briefing Dossier]

31. Exercise 3 Causes and Effects between Shocks [Replace with a picture of the causes and effects map you came up with for the Briefing Dossier]

32. How can we estimate each risk’s severity ? Severity = likelihood * impact • The likelihood of a risk becoming a shock can be estimated based on existing contingency plans and scenarios, and research forecasting. • The impact of each risk on each part of the system can be ranked based on qualitative or quantitative data if available.

33. Drawing a Risk Heatmap [Replace with a picture of the risks heatmap you came up with for the Briefing Dossier]

34. Exercise 4 Review of RiskHeatmap

35. Review of Module Objectives • Identify the key events and stresses that have impacted on and will impact on the system under analysis • Describe the cause and effect relationships between these shocks and stresses • Plot the likelihood and impact of shocks, to prioritise the most severe ones both now and within the selected timeframe

36. module 2 analysis of characteristicsof thesystem’s components [Insert a picture relevant to the context]

37. Module Aim Explain how different risks affect the various components of the system differently, depending on capacities and vulnerabilities, and on cascading impacts or new opportunities triggered by shocks [Insert a picture relevant to the context]

38. Module Objectives • Explain why some components are less affected and some more affected by shocks • Identify key variables in terms of vulnerabilities and existing capacities, that explain the impact of the risk landscape on the system • Identify links between key system components which accelerate vulnerabilities or capacities • List existing capacities of priority components

39. Whatis the SustainableLivelihoodsApproach?

41. Examples of Assets per Capital Group • Education • Vocational training • Health • Knowledge of essential practices • Income to cover basic needs • Additional production for sale • Formal employment • Informal employment • Savings • Gifts / Donations • Banks • Transfer of funds • Credit/ savings group • Participation in community meetings • Participation in community organizations influencing local power • Participation in democratic processes (elections, decentralization) • Membership in political parties • Access to those in authority •  Knowledge of rights and duties Human Financial Political National Structure Physical Natural • Shelter • Access to Commodities • Access to Drinking Water • Access to Essential Household items • Access to Productive Land/ Productive capital ( Means of Transportation, Livestock etc.) • Access to Social Infrastructure • Sanitation • Energy • Source of drinking water • Land for agriculture / livestock • Forest • Livestock • minerals • Biodiversity of the environment • Rivers and waterholes Social • Formal/Informal Conflict management mechanisms • Links & Social Networks supporting IDPs • Measures to protect girls and boys • Participation of women in social life • Community Committees

42. Key Questions Underpinning this Module • What have been the impacts of shocks and stresses on specific components of the system in the past? • Which components performed poorly? Which components continued to perform well? Why? • Which components benefited from opportunities that arose with the shock? • Which components suffered from cascading impacts, and interdependency with other components of the system? • Which components experienced change not linked with a shock, but with the cumulative effect of small events? • Do you foresee that any of the components’ characteristics will change in the future ?

43. Exercise 5 Characteristics of System Components

44. An example before starting the exercise: Financial Capital

45. Exercise 6 Selection of System Components to be Further Analysed

46. Exercise 7 Different Systems have Different Strategies to face Risk, for all three types of capacities

47. Exercise 8 Existing Capacities for Priority Components

48. Review of Module Objectives • Explain why some components are less affected and some more affected by shocks • Identify key variables in terms of vulnerabilities and existing capacities, that explain the impact of the risk landscape on the system • Identify links between key system components that accelerate vulnerabilities or capacities • List existing capacities for priority components

49. Day one Evaluation! [Insert a picture relevant to the context]

50. Module 3 Analysis of stakeholders and processes influencing the system