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FDA/Industry Statistics Workshop 2005 Parallel Session 6: Vaccine Trials 10:10 am – 11:30 am, Sept. 16, 2005

FDA/Industry Statistics Workshop 2005 Parallel Session 6: Vaccine Trials 10:10 am – 11:30 am, Sept. 16, 2005.

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FDA/Industry Statistics Workshop 2005 Parallel Session 6: Vaccine Trials 10:10 am – 11:30 am, Sept. 16, 2005

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  1. FDA/Industry Statistics Workshop 2005Parallel Session 6: Vaccine Trials10:10 am – 11:30 am, Sept. 16, 2005

  2. Co-Chairs: Jingyee Kou (CBER), William Wang (Merck)Panelists:FDA Statistician: Dale Horne (CBER)Academia Statistician: Lawrence Moulton (Johns Hopkins)Industry Statistician: Joseph Heyse (Merck)FDA Clinician: Douglas Pratt (CBER)Industry Clinician: Jill Hackell (Wyeth)

  3. Outline • Vaccine Safety (1 topic) • Vaccine Efficacy (3 topics) • Vaccine Immunogenicity (3 topics) • Other (1 topic)

  4. Vaccine Safety Topic • Trial design for pre-licensure and post-licensure study • Large safety trial to detect rare adverse reaction. How rare should the event be in the interest of the public health: e.g., 1/1,000 or 1/10,000? • Long term safety trial to evaluate potential events with a long-latency pre-licensure (active reporting) versus post-licensure (voluntarily reporting, e.g VAERS )

  5. Vaccine Efficacy Topic 1 • Estimation of indirect and total effects of vaccine • Simple randomization vs Group randomization • How should group randomization be used in vaccine development?

  6. Vaccine Efficacy Topic 2 • Superiority vs super-superiority • Study Hypothesis on Vaccine Efficacy (VE) is H0: VE<=0 vs H1: VE > 0 • When is it enough for the lower limit 0 of the 95% CI to be 0 or close to 0, and when should it be set higher?

  7. Vaccine Efficacy Topic 3 • How to evaluate vaccine effect on the incidence (randomized comparison) and severity (non-randomized comparison)? • Vaccine might reduce the incidence of disease moderately, while reducing severity of the disease among breakthrough cases • How should one assess the vaccine efficacy on both the incidence and the severity?

  8. Vaccine Immunogenicity Topic 1 • Vaccine approval based only on immunogenicity • Vaccine may induce strong immune responses that have not been demonstrated as correlates of protection • Under what conditions is it appropriate to approve a vaccine based solely on immunogenicity?

  9. Vaccine Immunogenicity Topic 2 • Selection of immunologic markers and non-inferiority margins • What’s proper methodologies to establish immune responses (e.g, antibody level) as correlates of vaccine efficacy? • Regression Analysis • Proportion Explained • Discriminant Analysis • What factors should be considered in choosing delta (e.g. 10% vs 15% percentage difference on sero-response rate)?

  10. Vaccine Immunogenicity Topic 3 • Immunogenicity evaluation with multiple serotypes • Combination vaccine containing multiple serotypes • How should one evaluate non-inferiority for all components?

  11. Other Topic • Accelerated development strategy in vaccine development • Critical path initiative for vaccine development • How should one apply adaptive designs and Bayesian techniques in vaccine development?

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