Investment Trade-Off Analysis: Highway Economic Requirements System (HERS)

1. Investment Trade-Off Analysis:Highway Economic Requirements System (HERS) Data Palooza Workshop May 9, 2013 Rabinder Bains, FHWA – Office of Policy and Government Affairs

2. HERS Capabilities • Projects overall conditions & performance of nation’s highways at alternative potential levels of investment. • Estimates investment needs relative to user-specified targets - e.g. average speed, minimum BCR (benefit-cost ratio) • Bridge replacement is estimated using NBIAS model • HERS could be used to develop fiscally constrained performance targets or estimate investment levels to reach desired targets

3. HERS Evolution • Developed in the early 1990s as replacement for Highway Performance Monitoring System Analytical Process • Used to run scenarios for the Condition and Performance Report to Congress and budget analysis • Evaluates investments using engineering & economic (benefit-cost) criteria • HERS-ST is the model’s state-level version, developed in early 2000s

4. HPMS Database • Limited to highways eligible for Federal aid—arterials, urban collectors, and rural major collectors • Local roads & rural minor collectors not included because generally ineligible for Federal aid • Approximately 10% of the Federal-aid highways are sampled • Detailed data on sample of highway sections used in HERS

5. Evaluated Improvements

6. Operational improvements • Ramp metering, variable speed limits, incident management systems, upgraded traffic signals, etc. • HERS estimates incidence and impacts of current and future deployments but does not subject these deployments to BCA.

7. Non-modeled improvements • Safety improvements • Rumble strips • Safety edges • Median treatments • Signalized intersection improvements • Guardrails, etc. • Bridge Replacement, excluding expansion • Other improvements –e.g. landscaping

8. HERS Benefit-Cost Analysis Monetizes benefits from reductions in: • Travel time • Vehicle operating costs • Crashes • Emissions • Highway maintenance costs

9. HERS Analytical Steps Current Conditions Simulate Future Conditions and Performance Traffic Forecast Identify Deficiencies Identify PotentialSection Improvements Select System Improvements

10. Current Condition & Traffic Forecast Over 119,000 Highway Segments in HPMS • Pavement • Geometry • Traffic Volume • Capacity Future Travel Demand • Base Year • Specified Future Year • Adjusted by Travel Demand Elasticity

11. Simulate Future Conditions and Performance Pavement and Capacity • Pavement Deterioration • Based on AASHTO Procedure • Capacity Calculations • Based on TRB’s Highway Capacity Manual • Pavement condition and capacity affect user travel costs, which feed into future traffic forecast through the travel demand elasticity

12. Identify Deficiencies Section Evaluation • Pavement Condition - good, acceptable, poor • Surface Type – asphalt, concrete, unpaved • Volume/Capacity, Lane Width • Right Shoulder Width, Shoulder Type • Horizontal Alignment, Vertical Alignment Deficiency Levels • Trigger Levels for HERS to Consider Improvements • Seriously Deficient Level • Unacceptable Levels (not used by FHWA)

13. Identify Potential Section ImprovementsHighway Improvements Pavement • None, Resurface or reconstruct Widening • None, widen shoulder, widen lanes, add lanes Alignment • No Change, Improve Curves, Improve Grades, Improve Grades & Curves

14. Identify Potential Section ImprovementsImprovement Evaluation Estimate Reductions in Road User Costs • Travel time • Vehicle operating costs • Safety Estimate Reductions in Highway Agency Costs • Maintenance costs • Residual value Estimate Reductions in Societal Costs • Emissions Estimate Improvement Costs Estimate a benefit cost ratio (ratio of user , agency, and societal costs to improvement costs)

15. SELECTING SYSTEM IMPROVEMENTS Minimum BCR Runs • Implements All Potential Improvements With BCR Above Minimum Target Level, use BCR=1.5 in C&P Report Scenario Funding or Performance Constrained Runs • Ranks Potential Section Improvements by BCR • Implements Improvements with Highest BCR’s Until Funding or Performance Target is Reached.

16. HERS Outputs Projected 2028 Pavement Ride Quality Indicators on Federal-Aid Highways Compared With 2008, for Different Possible Funding Levels

17. HERS Output Projected 2028 Highway Operational Performance Indicators on Federal-Aid Highways Compared With 2008, for Different Possible Funding Levels

18. HERS Output Projected Changes in 2028 Highway Travel Delay on Federal-Aid Highways Compared With 2008, for Different Possible Funding Levels

19. Summary • HERS model allows for trade-off between improvements in infrastructure condition, safety and operational improvements using benefit cost analysis • HERS results can provide a benchmark against which to assess the performance targets under consideration • While HERS model is applicable for national level highway program, HERS-ST could be used for State level analysis • HERS is updated continually to incorporate new research findings and policy initiatives