What do Gartner’s 2005 Predictions Mean for Libraries

1. What do Gartner’s 2005 Predictions Mean for Libraries Stephen Abram VP, Innovation Sirsi Corporation March 17, 2004

2. Gartner Group • Gartner Predicts research initiative in 2005 spanned more than two dozen technology and vertical industry focus areas. All told, more than 140 analysts proposed and collaborated on approximately 150 predictions that will affect IT users, vendors and most industries in 2005 and beyond. • Space limitations prevent highlighting all focus areas — let alone all the predictions — today. I will pull out selected predictions that demand your attention and action.

3. View technologies and innovations as related to future of library services. • Connecting, Collaboration, Community News Service March 29, 2004 U.S. President George W. Bush called for universal and affordable access to broadband Internet service by 2007, saying that the technology would speed the flow of information and spark innovation.

4. Next Massive Wave of Innovation and Demand for IT Will Start in 2006/7 Transition to Service-oriented architecture Real-Time Infra-structure Low-Power-Consumption Mobile/Display Devices 2006/7 Secure Broadband Wireless

5. Emerging Trends & Technologies

6. Hardware Innovations in the Next Decade • A bridge for the physical and electronic worlds, multipurpose technology • Accelerometers, sensors, micro actuators • Smart Pills, Nano, Quantum, Optical, Molecular MEMS • Tagging physical objects with electronic information • Supply chain automation • Product information discovery RFID • Physically and logically separate processing space for trusted applications • Ubiquitous billing infrastructure — µ-payments • Easy-to-use DRM, new business models • Key Issue: Can it be implemented right? Trusted Computing

7. Mobile and Wireless in the Next Decade • Innovation in personal device format and user interaction • Lots of Functions: Phone, Calendar, Internet, MP3 Player, Camera, Video, House/Car Key, Payment, Authentication, Biometrics, Life Saving, Stun Gunning, Insect Repelling • Shared Hub: I/O, Security, Battery, Storage, Call Center • PAN: for user interaction Personal Area Networks • A mix of technologies, including Zigbee, UWB, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi x.y, 2.5/3/4G, will allow best economical mix: reliability, costs, size, bandwidth, reach • Sensor Networks, Smart Dust • Self-Organizing Principles: Plug-and-Play Mesh Networks Mobile Commerce • Devices + Reliable Networks + Business Models + Content • Context- and Location-Based Services • Hybrid offerings blending traditional and mobile commerce

8. Computer Human Interactionin the Next Decade • Biometrics, Speech, Handwriting, Eye Position • Gait Analysis, Infrared • Emotion/Lie Detection Human  Computer • OLED/OLEP, E-Ink • Head-Mounted Displays • Speech Synthesis • Avatars, Synthetic Characters Computer  Human Logic • Natural Language Search • Taxonomies/Browsing • Personalization • Machine Translation

9. Data Analytics in the Next Decade • Hardware revolution continues to drive the data explosion • Analysis and action gaps widen – skills shortage • Data mining remains niche; most pockets of opportunities are still within business intelligence • Data mining shifts to intermediaries (Wal-Mart, eBay) Trends • Embedded Data Mining Advanced Functionality • Visualization, neural nets, genetic algorithms, machine learning • Text and information extraction • Audio and video mining • Exploiting networks and communities (Google, Amazon)

10. XML XQuery Development Long fuse Aspect-OrientedProgramming Business Rules Engines Service-Oriented Software Extreme Programming Int. Web Services System Development and Managementin the Next Decade Heavy Ontologies Integration Agent-Based Integration More ModularityLess Monolithic More Agility More Complexity Identity Management BAM Complex Event Processing Portals Service-oriented Business Applications Composite Applications Application Platform Suites ManagementandSourcing Outsourcing Business Process Fusion “Virtual Enterprise” ASPs Grid Computing Real-time Infrastructure • Bottom Line: • Standards matter! • Modularity implies more flexibility — but also more complexity.

11. Strategic Planning Assumption:By 2010, 70% of the population in developed nations will spend 10 times longer per day interacting with people in the electronic world than in the physical one (0.6 probability). Connected Society

12. Connected Society Identity and Profiles Wearables Wireless Ad Hoc Communities Privacy, Preference and Discrimination WiFi Smart Phones Collaboration: I, borg Ultrawideband Augmented Reality Location-Based Services Healthcare as a Utility

13. Connected Objects and Places Smart spaces On-chip wireless/RFID Smarter people On-chip sensors/MEMS What should objects know? Location, owner, safety ... Low-power CPUs Low-power displays Products as services Ad hoc networking/ mesh networks Personalized retail Disposable computers Smart dust

14. Connected Enterprises Enterprise as Ecosystem Real-time Infrastructure Service-Oriented Everything Business Process Fusion Communications-Enabled Business Processes Voice/Data Convergence Offshore Outsourcing Measuring Knowledge Work Shifting Job Roles Compliance and Data Visibility Exploiting Network Effects: Innocentive Semantic Standards

15. Top 10 Technologies To Watch Bluetooth MEMS Real-time DW Grid Linux WLANs Smartphones CRM Portals iSCSI SANs IP Telephony BAM Instant Messaging SCM Opteron Nanocomputing LEP UWB Software as Services Zibgee Real-Time Infrastructure Mobile applications Natural Language Search Micro fuel cells Tablet PCs MMS Speech recognition 802.11g Trusted Platforms Utility computing OLED Mesh networks Camera Phones e-inkIT self-service Network Security Convergence Smart dust Semantic Web RFID Tags 4G wireless Taxonomies Location aware services Ontologies Unified communications Metadata management Maturing within 36 months Network security convergence IP telephony Software as services Instant messaging Established, wider usability Utility computing WLANs Partial value next three years RFID tags Grid Taxonomies Real-Time Infrastructure

16. Real-Time Enterprise A real-time enterprise (RTE): • Monitors, captures and analyzes root cause and overt events that are critical to the success of the enterprise • Does it the moment those events occur • Exploits that real-time information to progressively remove delays in managing and executing critical detection, reporting, decision- making and response business processes

17. Connected Society Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2005, 60 percent of interpersonal data messaging done by consumer and enterprise users via mobile and fixed devices will be instant (real-time) by exploiting location and other presence indicators (0.7 probability).

18. Wireless Encryption Protocol is broken, but better than nothing Wi-Fi Protected Access (WPA) protocol brings WLAN to business-level security, but needs to move to at next refresh cycle of the protocol Still need to worry about end-point security Don’t forget about public hot spots Wider Deployment of WLAN for Enterprises

19. Interoperability Is Cheaper Than Integration Service-Oriented Development of Applications (SODA) • Interface Separation • Wrapping (Reflection) • Description • Dynamism Develop OOP Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) • Contracts • Messages • Repository • Servers Deploy Software Treated as Services Composite Applications “Real-Time” (JIT) Integration

20. Web Services Readiness Scope of Deployment Scope of Web Services (WS) Stage 3: 2007 onward Unlimited — Prospects, Suppliers, Influencers Full Internet Open-sourced WS-UDDI Directories Cross-industry Shared WS for trusted supply chains; narrow partner groupings Stage 2: 2005 Limited External-Trading Partners Extended enterprise Proprietary WS for internal integration Cross- enterprise Stage 1: 2003 Internal Development Individual department Scope of Standards One depart-ment. CIOoffice Industryconsortia (public) International/U.S. standards bodies

21. Connected Society Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2012, radio frequency identification (RFID) and similar wireless chips will evolve from a supply-chain technology into an enabler of value-added consumer applications, such as item location and status reporting (0.6 probability).

22. Call Center Tools CRM Device Inter- operability Remote Site Management Collaboration Services Mobility Consistent Security User Authentication Extending Telephone Features Presence Detection PC/Telephone/Video connectivity Centralized Administration Centralized Management Agent Availability Caller Information Presence Detection Presence Detection Collaboration Bridge Services Scheduling Tools IP Telephony Provides the ‘Killer Environment’ IP telephony crosses organizational units and technologies

23. PDA’s and Mobile Technology

24. How Will Wireless LANs and 3G Interoperate? Office Area Cafeteria Meeting Area DSL Cable WLL In the Home Enterprise Campus Coverage Area <150 feet < 20 computers Expect 2 Mbps to 8 Mbps through YE04 Public Hot Spots (hotels, airports, retail centers)

25. Focused on application/end-user segment alignment Packet data (CDMA 1x, GPRS, W-CDMA) Full-color screen across product portfolio Increased memory and storage (separate/integrated application processors) Application-layer interface (BREW, Java) Messaging interface (SMS, MMS, EMS?) Product portfolio “must haves” Bluetooth Camera MIDI sounds and ringers WAP 2.0 Handsets in 2004

26. The Smartphone Emerges Symbian +Mainstream mfg. - Enterprise software PalmOS +First to market - Back-end systems Windows CE +Enterprise software - Mainstream mfg.

27. OS Competition Intensifies Device Diversity Less More

28. E-Learning

29. Connected Society Strategic Imperative: For higher-education institutions to remain competitive, academic decision makers must build the case for real-time integration based on the learner’s needs and expectations

30. The Case for Integration: The Learner Benefits Authentication Single Sign-On Security/Privacy • Internal and External Content • Search and Discovery • Content Management • License Management • Rights Management • Linking 24x7 Help Personal Administrative Management (ERP) Personal Academic Management (CMS) Communication and Collaboration

31. Connected Society Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2005, at least 60 percent of new higher-education IT spending will go toward acquiring and supporting academic technologies, including e-learning, content management and library management systems (0.7 probability).

32. Beyond Course Management SIS Conferencing/Collab. Portal METADATATOOLS AUTHORING Course Management Tool Tool Tool Academic Analytics Learning Content Management Library Management External Content Repositories Institutional Content Repositories

33. Batch and Real-Time Integration of CMS With Major Systems SIS HR/Payroll Batch Real Time Financials Library MS 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percentage of Respondents

34. Connected Society Tactical Guideline: Higher-education institutional decisions concerning library management systems, campus portals and CMS should not be made in isolation from each other.

35. Library Management Systems as Learning Content Management Millennium Voyager Aleph Unicorn Horizon 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Number of ARL Member Libraries Source: ARL 2003

36. Institutional Motivation for E-Learning Enhanced Customer Service Student Demand Pedagogical Advantage Marketing Opportunities Generate Revenues Collaboration Recruiting Competition Construction Cost Savings Government Mandate Reduce Staff Head Count 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percentage of respondents rating motivation as very important or extremely important.

37. Importance of Technologies for E-Learning Infrastructure in Next Three Years: Top 10 Broadband Networking Security Technologies Learning Content Mgmt. Next-Gen. CMS Enterprise Portal 2002 2003 Video Streaming Video Over IP Digital Rights Mgmt. Wireless Networking Learner Portfolios 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Percentage of respondents rating technology as very important or extremely important.

38. The Two Big E-Learning Challenges Quality Content (The TV Show) Technical Infrastructure (The TV) Necessary Software Optimized Network Interesting, Fun,Interactive, Motivating Good content and infrastructure are both neededto be successful with e-learning.

39. E-Learning Deployments Increase E-Learning Software Spending Increase in 2004 28% IT Spending Increase in 2004 7.6% Old Focus New Focus Enterprise LMS Departmental LMS E-Learning Suites Best-of-Breed Applications Increased Focus on Custom Content Off-the-Shelf

40. Open Source

41. Status: Critical Building Blocks of IT Infrastructure Proven Internet Access Line of Business Enterprise Data Client Devices Infrastructure Server/Blade Business Application Server Data/Content Server/ Warehouse • Directory • Security • Load balance • File/print • Web • E-mail • NAS • Proxy • Caching • VPN • Firewall • WAP • VoIP Gateway • ERP • SCM • CRM • HR • Databases • Consolidation on zSeries Desktops Compute Clusters Network Edge Servers Financial, R&D, biotech, geophysical, energy, visualize

42. Now +12 months Where Linux is Used: Now and in 12 Months No Table 24 Base: CIO respondents answering question (n=105)

43. +53% Now +24 months Open Source Software Usage: Infrastructure No Table 25 Base: CIO respondents answering question (n=98)

44. +100% Now +24 months Open Source Software Usage: Applications & Collaboration No Table 25 Base: CIO respondents answering question (n=98)

45. Library Open Source Interest is Growing • Small library LMS (GreenStone, OpenBiblio, Linux School Library) • Digital Repository Management System (The Fedora™ Project) • Library Database development and search applications • Library Web front ends and portals (ASU library) • Digital collections and Audio collections • Professional Library Associations (LITA, ALA, ARL, BLA) • Major LMS vendor’s are showing interested in OSS (VTLS Inc. & Fedora Project) • OSS4Lib - open source projects for libraries

46. Knowledge Management Technologies

47. Knowledge Workplace Shared Ideas Shared Creation E-Mail Workflow Content Mgmt. Discussion Databases Web Conferencing Intranets Collaborative Design Portals Shared Presence Networked Virtual Worlds Instant Messaging Avatars Videoconferencing

48. The Future of KM Is Personal Personal Knowledge Network Characteristics • Tacit, intellectual capital is held by the individual knowledge worker • Instantaneous access to knowledge enhances the productivity of the individual knowledge worker • Collaborative connections and networks build value for the enterprise

49. A New Infrastructure Stack Emerges Line-of-Business Applications Portal Integration Suite Application Server OS and DBMS New View Old View

50. Visibility Key: Time to Plateau WCM Outsourcing Virtual Content Repositories Less than two years Two to five years Five to 10 years Personal Web Publishing Content Aggregation and Syndication Taxonomies Content Integration Globalization, Localization JSR 170 E-Forms WSRP and JSR 168 Records Management XML-Based Multichannel Output and Interaction Document Management Smart Enterprise Suites Information Retrieval/Search Content-Process Fusion Enterprise Digital Rights Management Document Imaging Web Services for CM Streaming Media WCM Information Extraction Digital Asset Management COLD, IDARS, DOM XML Database Management Systems Consumer Digital Rights Management As of June 2003 Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity Technology Trigger Maturity Acronym Key CM content management COLD computer output to laserdisc DOM distributed output management IDARS integrated document archive and retrieval system JSR Java Specification Request WCM Web content management WSRP Web Services for Remote Portals Content Management Hype Cycle