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day.1. TEDSS , Decision Types, Phases & DSS 1b TEDDS illustrates decision types supported by DSS ( WSJ : More Efficient Exodus ) 13 benefits of building DSS

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  1. day.1 TEDSS, Decision Types, Phases & DSS 1bTEDDS illustrates decision types supported by DSS(WSJ: MoreEfficientExodus) 13benefits of building DSS S-1the journey into decision making will lead to amajor revolution in management and organization (observedinCIOcases) 2TERRAIN MAP of decision making is needed because: S-2different (IT) techniques are required for different phases of the journey 3TYPES OF DECISIONS S-3a Programmed (routine sequence of responses so studied / programmed) S-3b opportunity use ITS to program decisions (TPS, MISJIT) S-3aNonprogrammed(unique & ill-structured) S-3crequire flexible / interactive (IT) techniques (DSS, AI) 4In reality, decisions exist incontinuumrequiring acomplement of ITS: PG&Vanity Fairused DSS (Stonyfield : Access) to aceess & analyze information from TPS & IOSS.4 5.aPHASES OF DECISIONS S-6.2 complex / unstructured problems are typically encountered in design & choice phases of nonprogrammed decisions Assignment: proquest search (analyic hierarchy process)

  2. day.2 design choice 2 WHAT IS A DSS? 6.1flexible/interactive ITS support complex/ill-structured DM 6.2 typicallyapplied to design/choice in nonprogrammed decisions 6.3 AHP is an example 8momentous changes for (complex/ill-structured) DM  ProQuestshows applied to many diverse decisions 9AHPdeveloped to assist DM evaluate (design / choice phases) of complex judgmental (qualitative criteria) problems 7 Analytic (decompose into components) Hierarchy (organize into hierarchical structure) Process (simpler pair-wise comparisons) 13 Simple, Intuitive, Powerful 9understanding (components of decision) 10managementof complexity (hierarchical structure, simpler choices) 11sophistication / speed of information processing (infers priorities from series of simple choices) 14aEC applied to spouse choice demonstrates DSS & components assignment: use EC to weight presentation criteria 16integrated into GDSS(Ranking Technical Managers) DSS extended by groupware & telecommunications

  3. day.3 GDSS 16.aWhat is GDSS? 17Hiring technical manager is complex, ill- structured, team decision 18Design and choice phases of GDSS relate to tablehandouts 22Benefits of GDSS

  4. DECISION SUPPORT & ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE The New Science of Management Decision Herbert Simon(1960) Wall Street Journal -Exodus (30Sep05) Wall Street Journal -Terrorist (17Feb06) Caspian Sea Pipeline Project (2012) ProQuestassignment:analytic hierarchy process young field  still dynamic TEDSS Case

  5. DSS-1.b A Decision Support System (DSS) to Save Lives Introductory Case Evacuation plan for nuclear power plant disaster multi-factor+ dynamic complex non-routine unstructured Speed TEDSS Force color graphics output (N-GAGE, Sparks, Celtics-HO) TEDSS.4 TEDSS.3&5 High Cost & Benefit quickly at the moment   best solution TEDSS.2&7 DSS-13.benefits Modeling…more efficient exodus. WSJ.30Sep05

  6. Figure 2: The presentation of the Surry Power Station area consists of the highway network and the protective action zones (PAZs).

  7. NBC10.com/traffic Provides similar graphic output (based multi-variate model) that assists decision maker in selecting best route. TEDDS: 2,7

  8. DSS-1.b A Decision Support System (DSS) to Save Lives Introductory Case Evacuation plan for nuclear power plant disaster (terrorism) multi-factor+ dynamic complex non-routine unstructured Force TEDSS Speed color graphics output (N-GAGE, Sparks, Celtics-HO)  N-Site TEDSS.4 TEDSS.3&5 High Cost & Benefit best solution quickly at the moment   TEDSS.2&7 DSS benefitss Tools to Predict Likely Teroritst Moves. WSJ.30Sep05

  9. DSS-13 What are the benefits of a DSS? DSS  Excel Access N-GAGE(AHP) • involvesinteractionbetween decision maker and IT system thatsupplements&enhances human decision making by increasing: • understandingof the problem/decision by examining intuition/judgment/experience of decision makers (spousechoice, accounting policy, terrorist activity, pipeline path) • management of complexity& lack of structure • sophisticationof processing capabilities • speedof access to & processing of information • for an organization, the enhancement of human decision making contributes to: • increasingflexibility&productivity(Dock:Sparks, DHS:WSJ) • decreasing costs(Jackpot : Celtics, Rx:CPOE)

  10. S-1 New Science of Management DecisionHerbertSimon (1960) Introduction • …this journey (into the decision making process) is going to lead…(to) a major revolution in the art or science of management and organization(observed in CIOcases)S.7.4 • …the computer and the new decision-makingtechniques associated with it are bringing momentous changeslike machinerybrought to manual jobs S.xi.1 Proquest • In 1960, described a terrainmap of decision making that provides a framework the discussion in new millennium S.7.5 DSS.2

  11. What types of decisions do you face? Types of Decisions DSS-3 StructuredUnstructured Recurring Non-recurring DM DIMENSIONS STRUCTURE Processing specific info. in specified way No precise way to get a right answer AI (DSS) FREQUENCY Programmed TPS & MIS CIO assessments (N-Gage) Stoneyfield Farm (Access) Celtics Analytics Slam Dunk repeatedly or periodically Non-programmed Spouse Choice (N-Site) Hiring Technical Managers … or University Faculty Accounting Policy Caspian Sea Pipeline Path Plant Layout Line Balancing infrequently

  12. S-2 Different Processes for Programmed vs Nonprogrammed Decisions Types of Decisions • My reason for making the distinction is that different techniques are used for handling the programmed and the nonprogrammed aspects of decision makingS.5.3

  13. DSS-5.a Figure 4.3 Phases of the Decision Making Process Spouse Choice N-GAGE GDSS [ DSS (AI )]  Subjective Complex Ill-structured Examples Hire technical manager Accounting Choices Access Assessment Spouse Choice N-Site Pipeline

  14. DAY 2 N-GAGE for SPOUSE CHOICE ENGAGEMENT

  15. Psychological Foundation: Approach – Avoidance principle

  16. Analytic: decompose into components Hierarchical Structure A B C D E F A B C D E F A B C D E F A B C D E F Process of pairwise comparisons

  17. N-GAGE PROCEDURES •  Select Criteria • Select next level (2) • Name & describe elements (alternatives) • OK • Name & describe other alternatives as previously  until finished level 2 • Select goal • Select arrow button to draw relationships • Draw arrows from the goal to each criterion in level 1 • When finished drawing arrows to define relationships at level 1, select a criterion • Draw arrows from the criterion in level 1 to each alternative in level 2 to be rated on that criterion • Repeat the process for each criterion • Go to kennedyonline.us • Select N-Gage • Run • Run • File • New • Enter file name & description • Next • Enter # of levels under the goal ( goal is level 0) • Next • Enter goal name & description • Done • Select Design tab • Select Criteria Select level 1 • Name & describe criterion • OK • Name & describe other criteria as previously  until finished level 1

  18. N-GAGE PROCEDURES • Select the Solution tab • The hierarch of criteria & alternatives appears with the weights derived from the PWC process on the arrows and an IR (inconsistency ratio) in each box • If the IR > 0.10 a “Revise IR!” statement appears in the box • To revise the inconsistent comparisons, select the compare tab • Then, double click on the box with the inconsistency message • Redo the comparison process as before  • When all the inconsistencies have been resolved, select the Goal and the select the Solution tab • Print the hierarchy (if the hierarchy does not print on a single page, use print screen -PrtSc – to copy and past into PowerPoint or Word) • Select the Compare tab • Double click the Goal (a pair-wise comparison – PWC – table appears)  Select the first row in the table • Compare (approach : avoidance) the criteria using the number line • Select the next row in the table • Repeat the comparison process • OK when the comparisons are finished in the last row of the table • Double click a criterion in level 1 (a pair-wise comparison table appears) • Select the first row in the table • Repeat the comparison process in the table just as previously  • Repeat the process for each criterion • Select the Goal when finished the comparison process for each criterion

  19. DSS-5.a Figure 4.3 Phases of the Decision Making Process Expert Choice Spouse Choice GDSS [ DSS (AI )]  Subjective Complex Ill-structured Examples Hire technical manager Accounting Choices Access Assessment Spouse Choice N-Site Pipeline

  20. DAY 3 DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS

  21. DSS-6 What is a Decision Support System (DSS)? DSS • DSS is a flexibleand interactive IT system designed to support decision making when problem is complex/ unstructured • frequently includesAI models like N-GAGE(AHP) • must be flexible / interactive in response to /because of problems that are complex / unstructured • usually involves qualitative criteria • typically in design/ choice phases of decisions • Examples: • Excel – what-if analysis in flexible budgets • MSAccess –data mining tools like queries and reports • N-GAGE (Expert Choice) – employs AHPto evaluate complex judgmental problem DSS-7 ACCESS PROJECTS

  22. Select Access ProjectsChoice: order CIO.1 presentations (Rx  Build) A-12

  23. AnalyticHierarchyProcess DSS-7 DSS: AHP • is an AI that modelshow experts approach complex hierarchical decisions involving qualitative criteria • Analytic -decompose complex problems into components (criteria / alternatives) • Hierarchy-organize into meaningful structure • Process of pair-wise comparisonsinvolving trade-offsassigns weights to the criteria and preferences to the alternatives more natural to compare two things than numerous elements (Saaty 2000, 1990, 1977)

  24. Analytic: decompose into components Hierarchical Structure A B C D E F A B C D E F A B C D E F A B C D E F Process of pairwise comparisons

  25. DSS-8 Simple, Intuitive…Powerful DSS: AHP • AHP has been applied to many diverse decisions: • Strategic Planning for a Caspian Sea Pipeline Project 2012 • AHP-Delphi GDSS for Locating WheyProcessing Facility2008 • N-Site: An Anti-terrorist Distributed Consensus Building and Negotiation Support System across the WWW 2006 • Evaluating Characteristics of FinancialInformation2004, 1995 • TQI Benchmarking Tools for Evaluating TQMprograms 2003 • Translating Financial Phrases into NumericalProbabilities1997 • Consensus Ranking of TechnicalManagerCandidates 1996 (ProQuest)

  26. Qualitative Characteristics of Financial Information Decision Usefulness design Analytical: decompose into components RELEVANCE RELIABILITY Hierarchical Structure understanding Predictive Value Feedback Value Timeliness Verifiability Neutrality Representational Faithfulness managecomplexity Process of pairwise comparisons choice Comparability (including Consistency) Similarto: Choice spouse & CIO/Access assessments FASB: SFAC2

  27. DSS-13 What are the benefits of a DSS? DSS • involvesinteractionbetween decision maker and IT system thatenhances & supplements human decision making by increasing: • understandingof the problem/decision by examining intuition/judgment/experience of decision makers • sophistication of processing capabilities • management ofcomplexity and lack of structure • speed of access to and processing of information • for an organization, the enhancement of human decision making contributes to: • increasing flexibility and productivity • decreasing costs

  28. DSS-16a ConsensusRankingTechnicalManager: similar spouse choice & CIO.1 ranking Facilitators: Researchers Team Members: Nursing Directors Nurse Managers Staff Nurse  ITTools  } DSSsupportsteam DM when problem iscomplex / unstructured (qualitative criteria) as in CIO.1RANKING Netscape/ Outlook N-GAGE LAN / internet GDSS supports TEAM STRATEGY

  29. DSS-22.a What are the benefits of a GDSS? GDSS • Achieves the benefits of a team approach to a decision by: • compressing time /space so individuals can interact • brainstorming to share ideas, facilitate consensus and achieve acceptance • perspectives from different organizational levels revealing required expertise in candidates (nursing directors, nurse managers, staff nurses) • explicit functional criteria are encouraged rather than implicit / inappropriate criteria such as sex, race, religion. Omega H.138.2

  30. DSS-22.b What are the benefits of a GDSS? GDSS • minimizes the problemsof group processes including: • groupthink in which different ideas are suppressed • conflict by keeping focus on problem not personalities • status differences that restrict participation (nursing directors, nurse managers, staff nurses) • sequential interaction in face-to-face meeting, Omega H.138.2

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