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by Carlos Rodríguez Otero, Ada Luisa Pérez Hernández, Isidro Salas García CUBA, 2001

Given at Open Meeting Of The Global Environmental Change Research Community Rio De Janeiro 6-8 October, 2001 . by Carlos Rodríguez Otero, Ada Luisa Pérez Hernández, Isidro Salas García CUBA, 2001. GLOBAL CHANGE AND VULNERABILITY OF THE COASTAL ZONES IN CUBA . OBJECTIVES.

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by Carlos Rodríguez Otero, Ada Luisa Pérez Hernández, Isidro Salas García CUBA, 2001

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  1. Given at Open Meeting Of The Global Environmental Change Research Community Rio De Janeiro 6-8 October, 2001 by Carlos Rodríguez Otero, Ada Luisa Pérez Hernández, Isidro Salas García CUBA, 2001 GLOBAL CHANGE AND VULNERABILITY OF THE COASTAL ZONES IN CUBA

  2. OBJECTIVES TO STUDY THE RISK AND VULNERABILITY ELEMENTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES CONSIDERING CONCENTRATED AND DISPERSE POPULATION, FOREST AND CROP AREAS, AND OTHER ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES • TO PROPOSE MEASURES OF ADAPTATION THAT CONSTITUTE AN IMPORTANT TOOL FOR TERRITORIAL CLASSIFICATION AND MANAGEMENT OF THE COASTAL ZONES IN THE DIFFERENT LEVELS OF PHYSICAL PLANNING: NATIONAL, PROVINCIAL, MUNICIPAL AND URBAN FOR SHORT, MEDIUM AND LONG TIMES

  3. GEOGRAPHICAL LOCALIZATION Area 110 861 km2 4 000 keys 6 000 km of coasts

  4. NATURAL AND ANTHROPICS IMPACTS ON COASTAL ECOSYSTEMS CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN ACTIVITIES CLIMATE VARIABILITY SEA- LEVEL RISE EXTREME EVENTS DROUGHT FLOOD

  5. COASTAL ZONE DELIMITATION

  6. COASTAL ZONE DEFINITION The area of contact between land and sea, is scarce, vulnerable and dynamic territory, where natural, economic, demographic, social and environmental aspects come together Research objective width is varies Coastal characteristic

  7. COASTAL ZONE DELIMITATION SHORELINE 1 m 5 m 0 1000 m 12 000 m HIGH IMPACT SEA -LEVEL RISE MEDIUM AND LOW IMPACT SEA- LEVEL RISE

  8. SCENARIOS TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE FOR CUBA

  9. SCENARIOS CLIMATE CHANGE (CO2 Duplication) • AN INCREASE OF TEMPERATURE FOR THE YEAR 2100 WILL BE 1,6 - 2,5 0C • CHANGES ON PRECIPITATIONS RATES OF 10 - 15 % • SIMILAR ACTIVITY OF TROPYCAL CYCLONE AS NOWADAYS • AN INCREASING NUMBER OF COLD FRONTS DUE TO OF ENSO EVENT • EQUAL NUMBER OF SOUTHERN WINDS • INCREASE OF DROUGHT PERIODS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN REGION

  10. SEA - LEVEL RISE IN CUBA 1 meter AVERAGE SEA- LEVEL RISE DURING THE LAST THREE DECADES 2.9 mm/year Projection sensibility low high year 2050 8 cm 44cm year 2100 20cm 95cm

  11. STORM SURGES Most Dangerous Sectors STORM SURGES IN SELECTED SECTORS RecurrentPeriods Storm Surges High (m) (cases/year) . Actual Forecasted Scenario 1 m 1/100 3,7 3,8 1/50 2,2 2,3 1/20 0,7 0,9 1/10 0,5 0,7 Surges behavior will increase only 4% in forecasted scenario 1 m

  12. RISK MAP: TROPICAL CYCLONES SURGE FOR COASTAL SECTORS OF CUBA Risk degree by sectors FREQUENCY, MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION

  13. COASTAL SETTLEMENTS

  14. HUMAN SETTLEMENTS SYSTEM IN CUBA HUMAN SETTLEMENTS SYSTEM IN CUBA IS WELL STRUCTURED AND STUDIED, WITH 11.04 MILLION INHABITANTS, PROJECTIONS OF THE POPULATION INDICATE THAT ITS GROWTH TENDS TO DECREASE MAINLY DUE TO THE DESCENT OF FECUNDITY 6834 TOTAL SETTLEMENTS 573 URBANS AND 6221 RURALS 1 MILLION INHABITANTS LIVE IN DISPERSED WAY

  15. COASTAL SETTLEMENTS URBAN 62 (11%of total)1,3 MM INHABIT, 330 000 DWELLING, 12 cities TOTAL 244 RURAL 182 (0,03 % of total),52000 INHABIT, 18000 DWELLING, 79 settlements with more than 200 INHABIT Population19921 410 504inhabit 19951 464 054inhabit DISPERSE POPULATION (0,003 % of total), 2974 INHABIT

  16. COASTAL SETTLEMENTS 244 settlements / 1 400 000 inhabit. / 330 000 dwellings

  17. SEA LEVEL RISE IN COASTAL ZONES

  18. COASTAL SETTLEMENTS LOCATED TOTALLY OR PARTIALLY BETWEEN O AND 1 METER 98 SETTLEMENTS 50 000 INHABITANS 17 000 DWELLINGS Urban 42 settlements Rural 56 settlements

  19. NOWADAYS THERE ARE 53 COASTAL SETTLEMENTS REPORTING FLOODS FOR SEA - LEVEL RISE, DUE TO TROPICAL CYCLONES SURGE MAINLY

  20. VULNERABILITY FACTORS • Proximity to shoreline and coast types • Settlement size and number of inhabitants • Conditions and type constructive of dwellings • Accessibility • Population and dwellings below 1 meter high • Economic base • Technical infrastructure CWATER QUALITYLIDAD DEL AGUA URBANOS AQUEDUC RURALS SEWER ELECTRICITY ACCESSIBILITY GOOD REGULAR BAD POPULATION SETTLEMENTS

  21. DYNAMIC GROWTH año TOPOGRAPHY PROFILE N-S OF THE LOCATION OF SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR ha GEOGRAPHICAL LOCALIZATION STUDY CASE: Santa Cruz del Sur

  22. FLOOD RISK MAP. SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR VERY HIGH HIGH MODERATE RISK GRADE THE SURGE WHICH TOOK PLACE IN 1932, WAS OF 7 METERS HIGH. NOWADAY ITS PROBABILITY IS 1 TIME EVERY 333 YEARS

  23. VULNERABLE ELEMENTS POPULATION 17125 INHABIT, (9% BELOW 0,5 M) DWELLINGS 4312 (GOOD AND REGULAR TECHNICAL STATE), EMPLOYMENTS 4123

  24. VULNERABLE CROPS IN COASTAL MUCICIPALITIES Scenario 1m sea level rise 3200 ha <1m

  25. FORESTS AND VULNERABLE GRASSES IN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES Scenario 1m sea- level rise 370000 ha <1m

  26. DROUGHT IN COASTAL ZONE

  27. COASTAL ZONE WITH DRY • ENVIROMENT Dry Subhumid Dry Subhumid Annual precipitation <800mm <1000mm months of droughts 9-11 8-10 evaporation 2000/2400mm >2400mm prec/evap. >60 >40 • 55% OF COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES • 132 OF 245 COASTAL SETTLEMENTS (MOSTLY RURAL) • 990, 000 INHABITANTS (1995) 7 DRY 9 SUBHUMID ENVIRONMENT Subzonas

  28. MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION MEASURES

  29. CONSIDERATE FACTORS FOR THE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION MEASURED • Prospective impact by climate change and extreme events • Commitments territorial precedent • Sense of ownership of coastal population to area of residence • Potentialities for change in land use • Cost of the measures proposals

  30. PLANNING SCALES PROVINCIAL NATIONAL TOTAL 14 MUNICIPAL URBAN TOTAL169

  31. PHYSICAL PLANNING ACTIVITY • RECTOR OF TERRITORIAL AND URBANS PLANNING TO DIFFERENT LEVELS AND TEMPORARY HORIZONTS • COORDINATES THE INVESTMENTS LOCALIZATION • INTEGRATES SECTORIAL AND TERRITORIAL POLICIES

  32. COASTAL SETTLEMENTS PRIORITIES 44% OF TOTAL 107 52% REPORT FLOODS URBAN 43 RURAL 64 COASTAL POPULATION PRIORITIES 1 174 738 INHAB 83 % OF TOTAL 50 000 BELOW 1 METER

  33. STRATEGIES OF ADAPTATION RETREAT ACCOMMODATION PROTECTION ENGINEERING PROJECTS REGULATIONS URBANS AND THE LAND USE, BUILDING CODES AND SEVERAL LAWS Mechanisms of execution (administration and control) in the territorial planning

  34. STRATEGIES OF ADAPTATION

  35. ACCOMMODATION 72 SETTLEMENTS TERRACES 1 METE R AND TWO LEVELS TWO LEVEL FLOOD MARK “BARBACOAS” (LOFTS)

  36. RETREAT(Irene hurricane / October 1999) SOUTH COAST PLAYA ROSARIO . Floods by south winds and surges of tropical cyclones . Shoreline retreatment a rate 3m/year (5 settlements) • SURGE EFFECT • tons of rocks over the settlement • 25 destroyed dwellings

  37. Playa Rosario Mitigation Proposal: Retreat INITIAL PROPOSAL Decade 1970 Bizarrón, 15 km ACTUAL PROPOSAL Year 2000 Juan Borrel, 5 km Shoreline 2,5 km inhabitants 650 WETLAND AREA

  38. PROTECTION8 settlements LOCAL REUBICATION15 settlements NOT GROWTH13 settlements

  39. ADAPTATIONSTRATEGIES • ADVANCED ENGINEERING PROJECTS • URBAN REGULATIONS VULNERABILITY OF HAVANA CITY • AREA AFFECTED 52 HA • INFLUENCE AREA 183 HA • AFFECTED POPULATION 45,800 INHABIT • DWELLINGS 12,041

  40. COAST SUMMARY • About 250 km of coast has been urbanized (industries, tourism, port, settlements) • There are 244 coastal settlements, 63 are urban and 181 are rural ones • Coastal total population is 1.4 MM inhabitants and represent a 13% of all population in the country • 52 coastal settlements report floods • 50 000 inhabitants of 98 coastal settlements live under a 1 meter high

  41. Yearly, in Havana city, other 50 000 inhabitants exposed annually to coastal floods • There isn´t significant disperse population in the coastal zone • The areas of crops are not very vulnerable to sea - level rise • The presence of natural forests is highly significant, mainly mangroves • 440 beaches (588 km) are affected • The eastern region of Cuba is the most affected area by drought in the current and perspective • 107 coastal settlements require adaptation and mitigation measures

  42. GENERAL CONCLUSIONS • IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THE VULNERABILITY OF COASTAL SETTLEMENTS TO DESERTIFICATION AND SEA LEVEL RISE BY CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREME EVENTS • TERRITORIAL AND URBAN PLANNING IN CUBA IS THE RIGHT WAY TO FACE THE ADAPTATION OF THE COASTAL ZONES TO THE GLOBAL CHANGES WITH THE POPULAR PARTICIPATION.

  43. Carlos Rodríguez Otero • Ada Luisa Pérez Hernández, • Instituto de Planificación Física • La Habana, Cuba • Email : ipf ceniai.inf.cu • Isidro Salas García • Instituto de Meteorología • La Habana, Cuba • Email: meteoro ceniai.inf.cu

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