Connecting Geoscience Departments to the Future

1. Connecting Geoscience Departments to the Future Where is our Research Going? A Perspective on the next 25 years Eric J. Barron

2. From the Perspective of…. • Hiring • Societal relevance and the maturity of our disciplines • “Sustaining” geoscience departments • A vision for an “end game” A caution – this is a discussion of directions and not the importance of a core level of knowledge and capability, the importance of field studies, or the importance of fundamental research

3. From the Perspective of Hiring: Generalizations • We already have significant vision documents that act as guides and are ahead of our accomplishments. • The external funding system and University promotion emphasis on funded research slowly steers both the production of new PhD talent and future research • A new hire may be a 35+ year investment • Difficulties arise when you are too late to the table or attempt to eat before the table is set • Most successful faculty have a “funding window” characterized by early career growth, stability, but eventual decline

4. From the Perspective of Hiring: Conclusions • Hire the best quality available • Good people will find a way • the system is directional – by creating the research ready talent pool • Pace of change allows opportunism and not leaps • Youth is critical to departmental success • Seek individuals pre-disposed to collaboration and interaction (they have more opportunities) • Actively promote faculty success • Sense declines in faculty productivity and promote professional development to revitalize faculty

5. From the Perspective of Societal Relevance and Maturity of our Disciplines : Generalizations • Output and Outcomes are growing as metrics for success • New discoveries • Value beyond a specific discipline • Societal importance or benefit • K-12 and informal education • Recognized societal problems are being articulated as “grand challenges” • There is a long-standing pull toward applied problems (useful science) that will likely grow

6. From the Perspective of Societal Relevance and Maturity of our Disciplines : Conclusions • Seek an intersection with the Grand Challenges that have staying power • Energy security • Water security • Environmental stewardship • Natural Hazard adaptation and mitigation • Climate change • Vulnerable regions (e.g. the coast) • Developing countries and human capacity building • Watch for the opportunities to foster, recognize, and reward the transition from research to applications • Grand Challenges require collaborative research

7. From the Perspective of “Sustaining” Geoscience Departments : Generalizations • We are increasingly in a tuition-driven economy • Low # of students = stagnant hiring or even the recapture of FTEs • Difficult case to present to administrators • Attraction to our core curriculum does not sustain a student body – employment perspectives do. • Singular career opportunities cause demonstrated vulnerability

8. Example: Oil and the Geosciences

9. Or National Degree Production (AGI)

10. From the Perspective of “Sustaining” Geoscience Departments : Conclusions • A diverse and engaging research and education portfolio focused on • issues of societal importance • multiple career paths • Small programs have inherent sustainability problems (implications for small colleges) • Consortia? • “niche” small universities • Collaborative scientists may promote sustainability

11. From the Perspective of a Vision for an “End Game”: Generalizations • We aren’t even close to achieving Earth System Science • The ability to “anticipate” is what makes knowledge powerful • Protect Life and Property • Promote Economic Vitality • Improve Environmental Stewardship • Promote Fundamental Understanding • We are at the start of significant transition in earth sciences research • Science in service to society

12. From the Perspective of a Vision for an “End Game”: Generalizations • Elements in the transition: • An expansion of the “forecasting” family • An expansion in the time and space scales of interest • Demand for an integrated system approach • Failure of “cause and effect” approaches • Recognition of role of “multiple stresses” • Recognizing science elements as a “service” • Failure of “over the transom” approaches • Recognizing the importance of “user pull” • Recognizing the connection between research, operations, and decision-making

13. From the Perspective of a Vision for an “End Game”: Generalizations • The Future: Earth “Intelligence” Center(s) • The Needs (and also what we lack in trying to develop Earth System Science): • A cohesive observation framework • A data management and access system that places all information at your finger tips • Framework for developing “predictive” models • Framework for directed process studies • Vigorous connections with decision-makers • A Flexible Framework for Multiple Issues • Likely to be “place-based” and not global

14. From the Perspective of a Vision for an “End Game”: Conclusions • The notion of “interdisciplinary” will be the norm and beyond current perception. • Areas such as computational geosciences, information sciences, policy, etc. move to the forefront of future programs in the Earth Sciences • Our future is even more diverse • Creates a pull toward youth in hiring • Joint appointments or incentives for partnerships or consortia may become normal • Promote an intersection with socially-relevant Grand Challenges that have staying power

15. From the Perspective of a Vision for an “End Game”: Conclusions • Seek individuals pre-disposed to collaboration and interaction • Watch for the opportunities to foster, recognize, and reward the transition from research to applications

16. A Summary • Hire the best quality available • Youth is critical to departmental research success • Seek individuals pre-disposed to collaboration and interaction (skip the disciplinary snob) • Seek an intersection with the Grand Challenges - that have staying power • Watch for the opportunities to foster, recognize, and reward the transition from research to applications • A diverse and engaging research portfolio is a strength

17. A Summary (continued) • Start to imagine growth/partnerships in areas such as computational geosciences, information sciences, policy, etc. • Joint appointments and unusual partnerships may become normal • Actively promote faculty success (the investment is too large to leave this to chance) • Sense declines in faculty productivity and promote professional development and opportunities to revitalize faculty • Small programs and one-dimensional programs and isolated programs have some inherent sustainability problems – we may witness a future transition