1 / 15

Recent Trends and Future Paths for Russian Development

This analysis examines recent trends in policy and performance in Russia, and speculates on potential future trajectories. It discusses the challenges and opportunities facing the country and highlights key areas for structural reform. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the OECD or its member states.

doriank
Download Presentation

Recent Trends and Future Paths for Russian Development

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Possible Russian Development Paths An Analysis of Recent Trends in Policy and Performance and Some Back-of-the-Envelope Musings about the Future Christian Gianella & William Tompson Economics Department Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development Global convergence scenarios: structural and policy issuesOECD, Paris, 16 January 2006Salle des Nations, Tour Europe, La Defense OECD Economics Department

  2. The usual disclaimer… The views expressed in this presentation are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the OECD or its member states. OECD Economics Department

  3. Contributions to GDP growth (not adjusted for capacity utilisation rates) OECD Economics Department

  4. Natural resource sectors (mainly oil) have been driving the growth of output…. OECD Economics Department

  5. Non fuel TB and exchange rate OECD Economics Department

  6. Cumulative variation of the trade balanceand factors’ contributions OECD Economics Department

  7. Russia’s population is expected to continue shrinking rapidly to 2050… OECD Economics Department

  8. …as the overall population grows older. OECD Economics Department

  9. The labour force is therefore set to shrink markedly. OECD Economics Department

  10. Investment still contributes too little to growth. OECD Economics Department

  11. Saving -investment balance (in % GDP) OECD Economics Department

  12. A longer-term shift in economic policy may be unfolding. • The authorities are well aware that investment levels are too low. The question is: how to boost them? • A two-track strategy is possible: • Of course, it would be foolish to bank on consistency. . . OECD Economics Department

  13. OECD Economics Department

  14. OECD Economics Department

  15. A few observations on Russia’s choices • Institutionally, Russia is not very well equipped for any of the more demanding options. • The survey results are worrying, not least because they suggest deterioration in some of the areas in which Russia most needs to make progress. • Many areas will require substantial improvement regardless of the strategic direction Russia takes. • This implies that a very large part of the structural reform agenda should be relatively non-controversial. So why have we seen so little progress since 2003? OECD Economics Department

More Related