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Capacity Demand Curve in ISO-NE: Additional Description of Supply and Demand Shocks

Capacity Demand Curve in ISO-NE: Additional Description of Supply and Demand Shocks. ISO New England. Samuel A. Newell Kathleen Spees Mike DeLucia Ben Housman. February 14, 2014. Additional Description of Supply and Demand Shocks used in the Monte Carlo Simulations.

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Capacity Demand Curve in ISO-NE: Additional Description of Supply and Demand Shocks

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  1. Capacity Demand Curve in ISO-NE: Additional Description of Supply and Demand Shocks ISO New England Samuel A. Newell Kathleen Spees Mike DeLucia Ben Housman February 14, 2014

  2. Additional Description of Supply and Demand Shocks used in the Monte Carlo Simulations • We provided a summary of the shocks to local supply and demand on Slides 18 and 19 of our 2/6 Markets Committee meeting presentation • These additional slides illustrate the distribution of shocks aggregated across local subzones, as implemented in the 1000 draws of each Monte Carlo simulation • The total system supply shock is the sum of the shocks in the four subzones (CT, NEMA, ME, and Rest-of-System). The local supply shocks are implemented independently, each with a normal distribution and with the standard deviations listed in our 2/6 presentation • The net system supply shock is the total system supply shock minus the NICR shock. (Shocks to supply and demand are implemented independently.) • Distributions for the two sensitivities that were presented on Slides 21-23 of our 2/6 presentation (shocks 50% larger and 50% smaller than the base case) are provided here as well

  3. Summary of Supply and Demand ShocksBase Case

  4. Summary of Supply and Demand ShocksShocks 50% Larger than Base Case

  5. Summary of Supply and Demand ShocksShocks 50% Smaller than Base Case

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