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valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

On the possible origins of Pre-seismic TIR anomalies Valerio Tramutoli 1,2 1 University of Basilicata, Potenza – Italy (valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it) 2 Institute of Methodologies of Environmental Analysis, CNR, Tito Scalo – Potenza – Italy.

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valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

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  1. On the possible origins of Pre-seismic TIR anomaliesValerio Tramutoli1,21 University of Basilicata, Potenza – Italy (valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it)2 Institute of Methodologies of Environmental Analysis, CNR, Tito Scalo – Potenza – Italy SCEC CSEP Workshop on Testing External Forecasts and Predictions Los Angeles 7-8 May 2013 1 valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

  2. Physical Models Anomalous TIR emissions are foreseen by most of the models describing earthquakes preparation phases e.g. Freund (J. Geodyn. 2002) positive hole-type charge carriers in rocks, activated when rocks are subjected to high levels of stress 2 valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

  3. Physical Models Anomalous TIR emissions are foreseen by most of the models describing earthquakes preparation phases e.g. LAIC (Lithosphere Atmosphere Ionosphere Coupling, Pulinets, 2009) 3 valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

  4. Increasing RTIRSIGNAL wind TIR Increasing SurfaceTemperature Physical ModelsLocal greenhouse effect (Quiang, 1991, Tramutoli et al., 2001, 2005, 2013) VIS SOURCE of CO2 and/or CH4 4 valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

  5. 0 decade month year year decade month day week week day Physical Models (before) A under stress microcracks formation can increases degassing rate (TIR anomalies) valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

  6. 0 decade month year year decade month day week week day Physical Models (just before) A further stress increasing determines microcracks closure interrupting previous degassing increase (TIR anomalies disappearance) valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

  7. 0 decade month year year decade month day week week day California 2000-2006 MODIS 7 YEARS Physical Models (immediately after) A major rupture can determine new escaping ways and a new increase of degassing rate (TIR anomalies) valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

  8. Expected atmospheric spectral radiance excesses (BT in K) at ground in presence of different CO2 concentrations MODTRAN simulation, (Tramutoli et al., 2009) 70 60 50 40 TIR radiance excesse in BT units [K] 30 20 10 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 wavelengths [µm] CO2x20 CO2x10 CO2x5 CO2x3 CO2x2 Physical ModelsLocal greenhouse effect (Quiang, 1991, Tramutoli, 2005, Tramutoli, et al., 2012) 8 valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

  9. MFG/MVIRI TIR BAND Physical ModelsLocal greenhouse effect not direct CO2 emission ! 9 valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it valerio.tramutoli@uibas.it

  10. Rapid (few hours) temperature increase! 10 Adapted from Pfanz (2012) valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

  11. Physical models: CO2 CO2 - river CO2 - lake 11 valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

  12. Physical models: CO2 25 January2001 28 January 2001 25 June1996 (4 days before EQ) 27h January2001 26 January 2001 Bhuj-Gujarat (India), Ms= 7.9, 26 gennaio 2001 CO2 - river CO2 - lake 12 valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

  13. Physical models: CH4Mud Volcanoes in Azerbaijan as controled sources of methane Panhai, Aliev, Guliev, Martinelli at Mefite, August 2006 more than 220 mud volcanoes, CH4 emission: 100-1000 ton/km2 per year (Etiope, 2003) NATO PROGRAMME SECURITY THROUGH SCIENCE 13 STREGEOS valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

  14. Physical models: known sources of CH4 22/5/95 23/5/95 No data (clouds) RETIRA ≥ 2 RETIRA ≥ 2.5 28-04-2003 RETIRA ≥ 3 26-04-2003 Bozdagh volcano eruption May 1995 21st May, 2003 Boumerdes earthquake (MW = 6.9): 14 valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

  15. Physical models 22/5/95 26 January 2001 H2Ovap CH4 Clouds CH4 Mud volcano Earth CO2 quake 15 valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

  16. Independent observations at the time of Abruzzo April 6th 2009 EQ Seismological observation (Vp/Vs) (Lucente et al, Geology, 2010) TIR anomalies SEVIRI SEVIRI SEVIRI 30 March 2009 00:00:00 GMT 01 April 2009 00:00:00 GMT 31 March 2009 00:00:00 GMT MODIS MODIS MODIS 01 April 2009 00:57:47 GTM 31 March 2009 01:14:56 GTM 30 March 2009 01:10:00 GTM AVHRR AVHRR AVHRR Vp/Vs observations have been justified by a progressive emptying of a huge gas reservoir triggered by the event of March 31st. Such an hypothesis perfectly fits with models correlating TIR anomalies with abrupt increasing of green-houses gases emissions. 30 March 2009 00:22:57 GMT 01 April 2009 01:46:49 GMT 31 March 2009 01:57:31 GMT 16 16 valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

  17. Next Future Using of satellite instrumentations (like AIRS-EOS, SCIAMACHY-ENVISAT, IASI-MetOp) for directly retrieve greenhouse gases concentration over L’Aquila only months of April from 2003 to 2009 17 valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

  18. Measuring greenhouse gases from Space(AIRS, IASI, Shamachy, etc) 50 km2 daily, multi daily and monthly means. Accuracy over the grid: 1-2 ppmv An example of an AIRS mid-tropospheric CO2 monthly mean map, July 2009. http://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/AIRS_CO2_Data/ 18 valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

  19. valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

  20. The “pneuma” theory of escaping gas as “cause” of earthquakes Anaxagoras (appr. 500-428 BC.) Aristotle (384-322 BC)  “pneuma”, a warm, dry gas escapes Straton of Lampsakos (320-270 BC) Poseidonios (135-51 BC) Pliny the Elder( 24-79 AD) Seneca (55 BC-40 AD) Pausanias (115-180 AD) Ammianus Marcellinus (second half of 4th century AD) Albertus Magnus (1193-1280 A.D.) Thomas Aquino (1225-1274 A.D.) Konrad von Megenberg (1309-1374) Leonardi da Vinci (1452-1516) violently escaping air Aristotle 2 millenia (by courtesy of Helmut Tributsch) Thanks (in any case it is a long story...) valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

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