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Tracking North Carolina Out of the Recession Richard Kaglic November 9, 2010

Tracking North Carolina Out of the Recession Richard Kaglic November 9, 2010. The Outlook (Last Year). Low trajectory climb out of the trough Consumers constrained by rising joblessness, need to rebuild the balance sheet

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Tracking North Carolina Out of the Recession Richard Kaglic November 9, 2010

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  1. Tracking North Carolina Out of the Recession Richard Kaglic November 9, 2010

  2. The Outlook (Last Year) • Low trajectory climb out of the trough • Consumers constrained by rising joblessness, need to rebuild the balance sheet • Investment hindered by weak demand, capacity excesses, credit conditions • Global economy is weak, but improving • What to look for: • Production to pick up, survey results, particularly PMIs • Banks start lending again (risk spreads, lending surveys) • Firms stop firing and start hiring (jobless claims)

  3. ISM: Business Survey Indexes DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate a preponderance of expanding firm activity. Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics

  4. Senior Loan Officer Survey Source: Board of Governors

  5. Initial Jobless Claims (000s, 4-wk MA Source: BLS/Haver Analytics

  6. Carolinas Business Activity Index Index > 0 indicates expansion Source: FRB Richmond

  7. Unemployment Rates Percent Sep. Sources: BLS/Haver Analytics

  8. Payroll Employment Index, December 2007 = 100 Sep. Sources: BLS/Haver Analytics

  9. Employment Concentration Location Quotients, U.S. average = 1.0 Sources: BLS/Haver Analytics

  10. Payroll Employment, North Carolina Index, recession trough = 1.00 Sources: BLS/Haver Analytics

  11. Carolinas Business Expectations Index Index > 0 indicates expansion Source: FRB Richmond

  12. Real Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

  13. Real Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

  14. Nonfarm Payroll Employment Quarterly average of monthly changes, Thousands of persons Oct. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

  15. Alternative Measures of Unemployment Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

  16. Alternative Measures of Unemployment Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

  17. Gauges of Inflation Notes: Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services. Source: BEA, BLS, Commodity Research Bureau, Haver Analytics

  18. Miscellaneous: $154 Source: Board of Governors

  19. Federal Reserve System Assets $, Billions Term ABS Lending Facility (TALF): $28 TALF: $32 Total: $2,346 Total: $2,342 AIG & Bear Stearns: $113 AIG & Bear Stearns: $114 Miscellaneous: $154 Miscellaneous: $159 Agency MBS: $1,051 Agency MBS: $1,092 Agency Debt: $154 Agency Debt: $150 Treasury Securities: $801 Treasury Securities: $840 Notes: Discount Window lending and Foreign Currency Swaps are less than $1 billion as of 9/22 and 11/03. Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics

  20. www.richmondfed.org

  21. Richard.kaglic@rich.frb.org

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