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Enhancing Weather and Climate Services: STIP for Effective Solutions

This plan outlines the strategic infusion of science and technology for improved water, weather, and climate services, focusing on advancing tornado warnings, air quality forecasts, radar technology, and operational efficiency. It covers teamwork transition roles, research and development requirements, and architecture compatibility. The emphasis is on meeting user needs, enhancing operational capabilities, and leveraging collaborative efforts to bridge the gap between research and operational deployment. The plan aims to accelerate STIP infusion processes in a disciplined and cost-effective manner, with specific goals for severe weather, tropical cyclones, and hydrologic services.

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Enhancing Weather and Climate Services: STIP for Effective Solutions

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  1. Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Water, Weather, and Climate Services NOAA SAB Meeting November 5, 2002 David Rogers NOAA Research

  2. Outline • Background • S&T Infusion • STIP Overview • Next Steps

  3. Tornado Warnings BackgroundPlanning for Future WWC Services • Successfully completed Modernization and Restructuring • Products and services have improved • Performance is leveling off • Users still have needs • S&T continues advancing • How will we respond and continue to improve?

  4. Air Quality Forecasts IFPS Current Radar Upgraded Radar Background How to Improve • Know and Anticipate Customer Needs • Evolve Operational Concepts • Train Workforce • Infuse Proven Science and Technology

  5. Bridging the Valley of Death Teams - Process - Architecture - Plans Operations R & D Improved Tech Insertion S&T Infusion Key Elements • Define Roles and Responsibilities for Teamwork • To effect transition • Define Process • To establish thread to operations early • Promote Compatible Architecture - Prediction Systems and Testbeds • To streamline transition • Plan - Roadmaps leading Program, Budget and Execution Plans • To set direction and add discipline

  6. Teamwork S&T Transition Roles and Responsibilities Operations: • Identifies operational S&T shortfalls • Evaluates S&T opportunities • Conducts applied R&D – operational applications • Inserts proven new S&T into operations • Leads planning and budgeting for S&T insertion into operations

  7. Teamwork S&T Transition Roles and Responsibilities Research: • Develop/find R&D • Identify opportunities, make data/info available early • Respond to operational shortfalls • Collaborate/assist in utilization/insertion of S&T • Consult in maintenance of operational capabilities • Lead planning and budgeting for R&D

  8. Time Opportunities Push STIPInfusion Process Requirements Pull Reqirements Validation Solution Selection Solution Development Deployment R&D Required? Solution Analysis User Needs YES NO YES Potential Use? Positive R&D Evaluation? Positive Demo Evaluation? Operational Requirement? Endorsed R&D Endorsed Demo S&T Idea

  9. Architecture Commonality/Compatibility is Key WRF • Prediction systems • Vision: Compatible research and operational models • Testbeds • Vision: Develop and test new S&T supporting improved operations in laboratory settings - When proven: Timely, cost-effective transition to operations

  10. Architecture Testbed Vision Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation2003 AO planned Satellite DA Joint Hurricane Testbed 8 funded projects Universities, Labs, Other Hurricanes Climate Universities, Labs, Other Planned NWS Observations NWP Severe Weather Coastal Marine Aviation

  11. S&T Infusion Plan (STIP) Purpose • Support Operational Product, Service, and Effectiveness Improvement Needs by: • Defining S&T Needs and Solutions • Identifying S&T Opportunities • Establishing Framework for End-to-End, Research to Operations S&T Planning and Execution including: • Planning Programming Budgeting Executing • Defining processes/mechanisms to accelerate S&T Infusion in disciplined, cost-effective manners

  12. STIP Roadmap Goals Integrated Solutions Across Service/Science Areas • Performance-Measure Based • “End-to-End” • Research to operations • Observations to delivering information to users • Reflective of reasonable budget expectations

  13. Severe WeatherSummary Vision High Resolution Severe Weather Warnings with Advance Lead Time and a High Level of Certainty • R&D Needs • Tornadogenesis • R&D on Severe Weather • Cloud-Scale Models • Situational Awareness Tools and Training • R&D on Total Lightning Data and Radar Polarimetry Data • Objective Verification • Predictability Limits • Improved Understanding on Socioeconomic Impact • Implement WRF • Deploy Advanced Ensemble Techniques • Dual Polarization • New Satellite Remote Sensing • Enhanced Training Increasing Performance • WSR88D Radar Upgrades • TDWR integration • WES/Training • MDCRS R&D 2002 2007 2012 2020

  14. Tropical CyclonesSummary Vision 48-hr Track Forecast Error of 80 nm 48-hr Intensity Forecast Error 12 kt • R&D Needs • Shear Effects on Track • Rapid Intensity Changing Storms • Microphysics Effects • Improved Data Assimilation • Improved Model Physics • Ensemble Techniques • Adaptive Observations • Predictability Limits • Implement Hurricane WRF • Data Assimilation • Deploy Advanced Ensemble Techniques • Expand Adaptive Strategies • New Satellite Remote Sensing Increasing Performance • Aircraft Instrumentation Upgrades • Expand Targeted Observations Joint Hurricane Testbed 2002 2007 2012 2020

  15. Hydrologic ServicesSummary Vision Minutes-to-Months Probabilistic Forecasts and Warnings of Water Excess & Deficits More Frequently at More Locations • R&D Needs • Better QPEs and QPFs for Input to Advanced Hydrologic Forecast Models • Probabilistic NWP and Hydrologic Models with Higher Resolution, Improved Physics and Data Assimilation • Hydrometeorological Testbeds Increasing Performance • Deploy High Resolution Hydrologic Models • Enhance Flash Flood Monitoring Tools • Location-specific Warnings • Graphical, Probabilistic Products • Deploy Dual Polarization & Satellite Upgrades On-going Training 2002 2007 2012 2020

  16. Climate ServicesSummary Vision To Provide a Seamless Suite of Products and Services of Climate • R&D Needs • Conduct North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) • Develop Empirical Prediction System for Week 2-4 forecast • Develop Regional Climate Model and Hydrologic Model for Water Resource Applications Improving Forecasts and Services • Improve NOAH LSM and N-LDAS, G-LDAS • Upgrade GFDL Ocean Model from MOM1 to MOM3 and MOM4 and Improve ODAS • Improve Ocean-Land-Atmosphere-Ice Coupling with Advanced Dynamics and Physics • Modernize COOP, CRN, ASOS • Increase Moored and Drifting Buoys • Improve Satellite Observation for SST • VOS/ASAP • Develop Objective Blending Forecast Techniques 2007 2012 2002

  17. ObservationsSummary Vision Observations When and Where Needed Supporting NWS Service missions • R&D Needs • Boundary Layer Observations • Improved RH & Cloud Observations • Improved Adaptive Obs Strategies, Platforms, and Sensors • Improved Vertical Profile Resolution • WSR-88D Upgrades (Dual Pol, Phased Array) • Improved LEO and GEO Satellites; >> data volume!!! • Expansion of Adaptive Obs • Increasing Radiation Budget Observations • Mature WSR-88D ORPG, ORDA • Rapid Expansion of Mesonets • Expansion of Aircraft Obs • Development of Testbed Strategies Increasing Performance 2002 2007 2012 2020

  18. Vision Common Model Framework For Climate/Weather/Water • Common Climate/ Global System • More Realistic Cloud Physics • Improve Use of Existing & New Observations • WRF Framework • Advanced Ensembling • Cloud Analysis • Adv. Small-scale Data Assimilation • Adv. Physics/ Coupled AQ Numerical PredictionSummary Supporting NWS Service missions • R&D Needs • Assimilation of Increasing Volume of Remote Sensed Data • Mesoscale Assimilation Techniques • Improved Representation of Non-Hydrostatic Scale Physics • Probabilistic Approaches • Mesoscale Verification Techniques Increasing Performance 2002 2007 2012 2020

  19. STIP Next Steps“Plans are useless, but planning is indispensable”Dwight D. Eisenhower • Develop/Link to Program, Budget, and Execution Plans • Link to Strategic Plans • Link to Budget Process - Develop FY 05 Initiatives

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