Excellent Early Forecast

2. Excellent Early Forecast • In one of the earlier predictions for 2015 holiday sales, eMarketer is forecasting a 5.6% increase, which would be the largest since 6.3% for 2011. • eMarketer also predicted retail ecommerce holiday season sales would increase 13.9% to $79.4 billion and represent 23.3% of all 2015 e-commerce sales and 9.0% of all 2015 holiday season sales. • In its August 2015 forecast, Kiplinger expects retail sales to increase 4.5% for the year and unemployment to decline to 5.1% by year’s end. The gasoline price prediction is $2 per gallon or less throughout the holiday shopping season.

3.  A New Trend and an Old Tradition • A new trend and an old tradition defined the 2014 holiday shopping season and are likely to continue for many years, as 32.3% of consumers started during October or earlier while 41.2% didn’t finish until after December 15. • In fact, according to research from First Data SpendTrend, 9 of the 10 biggest shopping days were during December, with Christmas Eve the biggest. In a survey from Retale, an online weekly ad site, 15% of consumers waited until the last minute to shop. • Alliance Data reported that 12% more 2014 holiday shoppers paid less for their purchases with the use of discounts, coupons and rewards programs. Almost 60% of consumers found those discounts in email offers.

4. 2014 Takeaways Point the Way to 2015 Success • Although online sales increased at a faster pace than physical store sales during the 2014 holiday shopping season, 6.8% and 4.0%, respectively, total in-store sales were $616.1 billion, compared to $101.9 billion online. • According to Nielsen, 10% of the total population expected to spend more during the 2014 holiday shopping season; however, multicultural households were responsible for 43% of this increase, with African-Americans first, at 17%. • The National Retail Federation reported that 32.4% of 2014 holiday shoppers found or became aware of shopping Websites through an email from the retailer; followed by shopped from the Website before, 30.0%. TV was 10th, at 6.6%.

5. Trailing Consumers Through the Crowds • According to a CivicScience Q4 2014 consumer survey, men did more of their holiday shopping in a store than online through a store-specific Website; however, women were more likely to use that channel, 61%, compared to 55% in-store. • Consumers with incomes of $75,000 or less were the largest group to shop online through a store-specific Website, at 63%. First among those shopping online through an Internet-only retailer had an associate degree or higher, at 62%. • The CivicScience survey also found that TV was the #1 influence of consumers’ 2014 Christmas shopping behavior: 62% for those who shopped in-store, 53% who shopped on store-specific Websites and 50% on Internet-only retailers’ Websites.

6. More Clicking to Complete Christmas Shopping • comScore reported during January 2015 that total 2014 US holiday season spending on home and work desktop computers increased 15%, or a total of $53.3 billion, compared to $46.5 billion during the same 2013 period, November 1–December 31. • During the last full week of the 2014 holiday shopping season (December 15–21), US retail e-commerce spending from desktop computers increased 18%. For the weekend of December 20–21, it increased 36%. • Online shoppers didn’t rest their index fingers on Christmas Day 2014, as e-commerce sales increased 8.3%, with the average order value at $100.33, or a 6.2% increase, compared to 2013.

7. Christmas Shopping on the Move • According to data from IBM, online mobile traffic increased 25.5% during the 2014 holiday season, which was 45% of all online traffic. Mobile sales increased 27.2%, or 22.6% of all online sales. • For the 2015 holiday shopping season, these numbers are projected to increase another 24.4% for mobile traffic, to 56% of all online traffic, and 23.8% for mobile sales, or 26% of all online sales. • As has been the case, total online traffic was greater on smartphones than tablets, 31.2% and 13.4 percent, respectively, but 13.4% of online sales occurred on tablets, compared to 9.1% of smartphones.

8. Advertising Strategies • As recommended often in these Profilers from THE MEDIACENTER, Christmas 2015 is when retailers must use their TV spots to drive traffic to their stores and Websites since TV is the #1 influence on in-store and store-specific Website shoppers’ behaviors. • Help retailers develop a complete schedule of holiday shopping season discount and coupon offers and matching TV ad flights for both early season (late September/October), pre- and post-Thanksgiving and late season (the two weeks and weekend prior to Christmas). • Recommend that retailers consider offering a free $5 gasoline card to all customers that return to the store within a week of their first visit and purchase, presenting the receipt from their first visit as proof-of-purchase.

9. Social Media Strategies • Retailers should start planning now to decorate their social media pages with festive holiday cover photos; write and post holiday-related content to their blogs, Websites and social media pages; and upload photos/videos from the store’s Christmas party. • A full complement of holiday-themed gift boards on Pinterest is a must for every retailer, with merchandise from the store included among boards with gifts from other sources for different members of the family, by age group, interests, personal styles, etc. • Create a holiday-themed video with a hidden code for a discount, free shipping or a free gift included in the video and promote the video through email campaigns, social media pages and the store’s Website and/or blog.