Bwango Apuuli IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC)

1. CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY IN AFRICA WITH FOCUS ON THE GREATER HORN OF AFRICA, PARIS, 20 JANUARY 2009 Bwango Apuuli IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC)

2. OUTLINE • Introduction • Climate change and natural resources • Past, present climate migrations and conflicts • Future climate change scenarios for the region • Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change • Adaptation strategies at national and regional levels • Conclusion

3. 10 GHA Countries Sudan Eritrea Djibouti Ethiopia Somalia Uganda Kenya Rwanda Burundi Tanzania

4. INTRODUCTION • GHA prone to extreme climate events such as droughts and floods with severe negative impacts on key socio-economic sectors. • More than half of the region is classified as Arid or Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) • Most livelihoods tied to climate sensitive natural resources • Shared natural resources

5. INTRODUCTION CONTD • Rain-fed agriculture • The droughts are often associated with lack of pasture, food, water, energy, loss of society livelihoods, etc • Climate extremes lead to • loss of life and property • forced large-scale population displacement • poverty • Other miseries

6. INTRODUCTION CONT… Consequences • the region has experienced conflicts ranging from interstate tensions • interstate conflicts • cross border community conflicts over limited water, grazing land • Food insecurity

7. Forced migration due to conflict

8. Scarcity in pasture leading to conflict

9. Climate change, natural resources and security Climate Change significantly affects security in three distinct ways • Warming and drying in some regions – will reduce agricultural potential and undermine ‘ecosystem services’ • Increase in extreme weather events – floods and drought resulting into migration • Sea level rise – submerge low lying coastal areas resulting to permanent relocation

10. Failed harvest caused by floods

12. Floods often follow or precede droughts

13. Migration with livestock due to drought

14. DROUGHT IMPACTS Reduced Crop production Starvation due to lack of Rainfall Loss of Livestock

15. Past and present changes in natural resources and livelihood patterns • Effects of future climate change on agriculture may be evaluated by using analogues of climate conditions that occur in the present time, such as current periods of drought and floods. • Maps below show effects of the 2001 drought on the vegetation conditions in Africa. Vegetation condition measured by vegetation health (VH - index). • Source: NOAA/NESDIS; http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/.

16. Analogues: Drought, Floods Africa vegetation health (VH - index) Vegetation health: Red – stressed, Green – fair, Blue – favorable Source: NOAA/NESDIS

17. Trends in rainfall patterns

18. Source: FEWSnet Pop~33M (2005) and Growth Rate ~ 2.56% Declining maize production per capita

19. Multiple Interactions • Climate change is one stress among many affecting agriculture and the population that depends on it • Integration of results is essential to formulate assessments relevant to policy • Potentialfutureconsequencesdependon: • The region and the agricultural system -Where? • The magnitude [How much? Scenarios are important.] • The socioeconomic response [What happens in response to change? Adaptive capacity (internal adaptation) and planned adaptation.]

20. Causes El Niño / LA Niña CLIMATE EXTREMES: WILL THE PATTERNS CHANGE Hot & cold spells Droughts River basin flooding Tropical cyclones Heavy precipitations (rain or snow) Storm surges Ice Storms Storm (winds) Dust storms Wildland fires & haze Hail&Lightning Mud & landslides Flash floods Avalanches Tornadoes

21. Adaptation Strategies • National Level include • Water harvesting • Irrigation • Drought/pest resistant crops • Reforestation • Energy efficiency e.g. stoves • Use of renewable energy e.g. solar, wind

22. Adaptation Strategies Cont… • Regional Level include harmonization of policies e.g. power pooling, EAC water release policy on L. Victoria & its basin • Regulation e.g. fishing between Kenya & Uganda on L. Victoria (Migingo Island) • Optimum use & protection of trans-boundary waters e.g. River Nile

23. Consequences for EU-Africa Relations • Devlpmt resources will continue to be diverted to CRM • EU will be expected to support progms for CRM • EU will be expected to continue to support CC adaptation in Africa: appropriate technologies, GMES, NAPAs

24. Conclusion • Climate change will get worse with more frequent and severe extreme events such as droughts, floods • Exacerbate conflicts, famine, food insecurity • Govts need to adopt appropriate policies to support adaptation • Mainstream climate change adaptation into national planning