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Importance of meteo and hydro services in HEP group

Importance of meteo and hydro services in HEP group. Barbara Tolić, HEP Trgovina d.o.o. SEECOFF-10 20.-21.11.2013., Belgrade. HEP Group. HEP Trade Ltd. O ptimization of power plants operation and trading intermediation  in the domestic and international market

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Importance of meteo and hydro services in HEP group

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  1. Importance of meteo and hydro services in HEP group Barbara Tolić, HEP Trgovina d.o.o. SEECOFF-10 20.-21.11.2013., Belgrade

  2. HEP Group

  3. HEP Trade Ltd • Optimization of power plants operation and trading intermediation  in the domestic and international market • Midterm planning – a week up to a year ahead • Short term planning – day ahead up to a week ahead • Intraday planning – hourly re-planning • Electricity trading • Goal – profit maximizationofentire HEP Group inconsiderationwithpowersystemneeds

  4. Hourly forecasts and hourly historical data Users of meteo and hydro data in HEP Group Temperatures (°C) Cloud cover (%) Fog (%) Low clouds (%) Middle clouds (%) High clouds (%) Humidity (%) Dew point (°C) Precipitation(mm) Inflow (m³/s) Evaporation (m³/s) Pressure (hPa) Wind direction(°) Wind speed (m/s) Satellite maps Radar maps Lightning maps

  5. Installed generation capacities in Croatia • Hydro powerplants

  6. Energy balance in Croatian power system GWh GWh

  7. Renewablesin Croatia

  8. Midtermplanning • Verydeterministic • Seasonalplanning • Weeklyandmonthlyplanning

  9. Midtermplanning - seasons • Energy consumptionforecasts • Large reservoirs management strategy – depending on long term precipitation forecasts • Fuel purchase and management (coal, natural gas and oil) • Guidelinesfor maintenanceplanning • Generation (hydro and thermal power plants) • Transmissionsystem • Longterm trade

  10. Weatherforecast - seasonal • Inputdata for planning • Temperature trends (normal, unusualyhot/cold) • Forecasts for regionalcapitals Zagreb, Split, Rijeka and Osijek • Precipitation (normal, dry or wetyear/season) • Regionalcapitalsandriverbasins

  11. Midtermplanning – weeklyandmonthly • Electric energyconsumptioncurves – verydependant on weather • Smallerreservoirsmanagementstrategy • All but twoofourreservoirsfallintothiscategory • Torrentialrivers – reservoirshave a highriskofoverflow • Run-of-riverpowerplants – dailyreservoirs • Renewablesplanning (windfarmsandsolarpowerplants) • Shorttermelectricity trading plan

  12. Weatherforcasts – weeklyandmonthly • 10-15 daysaheadmeteograms • Daily temperature (average, high, low) • Precipitation (quantityandtype) • Cloudsandfog (big influence on energyconsumption) • Relativemoisture • Windspeedanddirection • Regionalcapitals (especialy on the Adriatic coast) • Windfarmlocations • Extremeweatherconditions (storms, floods)

  13. Forecastinterpretation • Ourplanning – verydeterministic • Weatherforecasts – probabilistic • Problem – weneedquantitativeinputdata • How to interpret probabilisticweatherforecasts? • {probability, interval, quantity}  {quantity, reliability}?

  14. Thankyou!

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