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Monetary Policy Review Q3 2018: Governor's Media Presentation

This presentation covers the Monetary Policy Committee's decision to maintain the Policy Rate, global and domestic economic developments, macroeconomic outlook, and key financial market indicators for the third quarter of 2018.

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Monetary Policy Review Q3 2018: Governor's Media Presentation

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  1. MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR THIRD QUARTER 2018 Governor’s Presentation to the Media 21st November, 2018 Bank of Zambia

  2. INTRODUCTION The presentation is structured as follows: • Decision of the Monetary Policy Committee • Overview • Global economic developments • Domestic economic developments • Macroeconomic outlook • Conclusion

  3. MONETARY POLICY DECISION • At its Meeting held on 19 – 20 November 2018, Monetary Policy Committee decided to maintain the Policy Rate at 9.75%. • In arriving at the decision, the Committee took into account the following factors: • Inflation projections which indicate that inflation will remain outside the upper bound of the 6-8% target range in the earlier part of the forecast period, but trend into the target range thereafter; • Continued low economic growth, with heightened downside risks; • Low private sector credit growth, though picking up;

  4. MONETARY POLICY DECISION • Sustained high fiscal deficits, rising public debt and external debt service payments; and • Continued fragilities in the financial sector as reflected in high non-performing loans.

  5. OVERVIEW Inflation averaged 7.9% in the third quarter, up from an average of 7.5% in the second quarter. Reduced supply of selected food items and the depreciation of the exchange rate of the Kwacha against the US dollar were the main reasons for the increase in inflation. In October, inflation rose to 8.3% from 7.9% in September 2018, driven by the increase in fuel pump prices. Figure 1: Inflation (Annual Change, %) Source: Central Statistical Office and Bank of Zambia

  6. OVERVIEW The overnight average interbank rate was contained within the Policy Rate corridor and closed the quarter at an average of 9.73%, close to the Policy Rate of 9.75%. Figure 2: BOZ Policy Rate and the Interbank rate (%) Source: Bank of Zambia

  7. OVERVIEW • The Kwacha depreciated against the US dollar and the Euro, but appreciated against the British pound and South African rand. Figure 3: Exchange rate developments Source: Bank of Zambia

  8. GLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Global growth momentum was maintained in the third quarter, but downside risks appear to have increased. In 2018 and 2019, the global growth was revised downwards to 3.7% from the previous 3.9% for both years (WEO, October 2018). • Underlying global growth was largely: • continued growth in the United States on account of fiscal stimulus; • strong growth in some oil exporting emerging market economies; and • accommodative monetary policy in most major central banks.

  9. GLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Commodity prices were mixed in the third quarter. Copper prices declined by a further 6.8%, while crude oil prices increased by 3.4%. Table 1: Commodity Prices Source: World Bank

  10. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSMonetary Policy Operations • Monetary policy continued to focus on keeping inflation within the 6-8% target range. • In terms of monetary operations, the Bank continued to keep the interbank rate close to 9.75%. • Consistent with the policy stance, the average overnight interbank rate remained within the Policy Rate corridor, closing the quarter at an average of 9.73%. • During the quarter, market liquidity rose to K2.5 billion from K1.1 billion mainly on account of: • Net Government securities maturities; and • BoZforeign exchange purchases for foreign reserves build-up (Table 2).

  11. Key Liquidity Influences (K ’billion) DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSMonetary Policy Operations Table 2: Key Liquidity Influences (K’billion) Source: Bank of Zambia

  12. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSMoney Market The volume of funds traded in the interbank market increased to K45.4 billion from K42.5 billion as liquidity continued to be concentrated in a few banks. Figure 5: Interbank Trading Activity (K’billion) Source: Bank of Zambia

  13. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSMoney Market Due to continued liquidity concentration, the volume of funds accessed through Overnight Lending Facility rose to K10.5 billion from K4.2 billion. Figure 6: Volume of Funds accessed at the OLF (K’billion) Source: Bank of Zambia

  14. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSGovernment securities market Demand for Treasury bills improved slightly while that for Government bonds declined further in the third quarter. Table 3: Government Securities Auctions Source: Bank of Zambia

  15. Total funds raised through Government Securities auctions declined further to K5.3 billion (at cost) fromK6.2 billion (at cost). With maturities worth K6.4 billion, a deficit of K1.1 billion was recorded. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSGovernment securities market Figure 6: Government Securities Source: Bank of Zambia

  16. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSGovernment securities market The outstanding stock of Government securities increased to K54.7 billion from K51.8 billion due to the rise in outstanding bonds. Figure 7: Total Outstanding Government Securities (K’billion) Source: Bank of Zambia

  17. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSGovernment securities market Non-resident investor holdings of Government Securities declined to K8.6 billion from K8.9 billion as demand for bonds fell. Figure 8: Non-resident Holdings of Government Securities (K’billion) Source: Bank of Zambia

  18. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSGovernment securities market Yield rates on Government securities rose, with the weighted average Treasury bills rate increasing to 18.45% from 16.96% while the composite yield rate on Government bonds increased to 19.64% from 18.07%. Figure 9: Government securities yield rates (%) Source: Bank of Zambia

  19. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSBanks’ Nominal Interest Rates In the third quarter, commercial banks average lending rate declined to 23.0% from 24.3% in June. The accommodative monetary policy stance provided an opportunity for banks to lower lending rates. However, the average savings rate for 180-day deposits remained unchanged at 8.3%. Figure 10: Nominal Interest Rates (%) Source: Bank of Zambia

  20. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSBanks’ Nominal Interest Rates The average lending rate, excluding banks with the highest and lowest lending rates, declined further to 21.0% from 21.7%. Figure 11: Nominal Interest Rates (%) Source: Bank of Zambia

  21. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSCredit growth and money supply Total credit grew by 9.9%, up from a growth of 2.9% as lending to private enterprises and households increased (Table 4). Excluding Government, credit grew by 14.3% compared to a growth of 5.0% in the second quarter. However, growth in credit to Government rose to 6.2% in the third quarter from 1.3% in the preceding quarter. Credit growth to private enterprises increased to 19.2% from 4.7% while growth in credit to households rose to 7.5% from 5.3%. Sustaining high growth in credit to private enterprises is critical to supporting strong private sector-led economic activity.

  22. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSMoney supply and credit Table 4: Domestic Credit Growth, Quarterly percent changes) Source: Bank of Zambia

  23. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSMoney supply and credit Growth in money supply increased to 13.0% from 7.3% in the second quarter. Growth was due to increase in Kwacha deposits and valuation effects on foreign currency deposits following the depreciation of the Kwacha against the US dollar. On an annual basis, money supply grew by 24.7%, 9.1 percentage points higher than in the second quarter. Continued high money supply growth rates are important to supporting sustained economic activity. Figure 11: Money Supply Source: Bank of Zambia

  24. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSForeign Exchange Market Following relative stability for most of the year to August, the Kwacha depreciated by 19.5% against the US dollar in September. For the quarter as a whole, the Kwacha depreciated against the US dollar by 4.2%, up from a depreciation of 1.4% in the second quarter. Sustained demand for foreign exchange, particularly for procurement of petroleum products, a strong US dollar and negative market sentiment following credit rating downgrades explains the depreciation of the Kwacha/US dollar exchange rate. The Kwacha also depreciate against the Euro by 1.7%, but appreciated by 0.1% and 6.4% against the British pound and South African rand, respectively. Figure 12: Exchange rate developments Source: Bank of Zambia

  25. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSForeign Exchange Market Source: Bank of Zambia

  26. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSForeign Exchange Market Net supply of foreign exchange reduced to US $280.4 million from a net US $334.2 million in the second quarter. Mining firms continue to dominate supply, while the public administration continued to dominate the demand-side. Figure 14: Supply and Demand (US$’million) Source: Bank of Zambia

  27. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSReal Sector Activity Preliminary estimates indicate a year-on-year real GDP growth of 3.3% the first half of 2018, up from 3.1% in the corresponding period of 2017. Selected indicators of economic activity point to improved performance, with copper production increasing by 4.4% to 220,130.7 metric tons (mt) in the third quarter; On a year-to-date basis, copper production at 631,359.4 mt in September 2018 was 10.4% higher than produced in the corresponding period of 2017. Production of cement grew by 24.2% to 628,293.6 mt in the third quarter, supported by increased demand for construction activities.

  28. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSReal Sector Activity Electricity generation increased by 5.9% in the quarter under review to 3,656.1 GWh; During the year to September 2018, electricity generation was 10.4% higher than produced in the corresponding period of 2017. Figure 15: Electricity Generation Source: Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation

  29. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSReal Sector Activity In the manufacturing sector, the performance was mixed during the third quarter. Table 5: Selected Manufactured Products (Quarterly, Metric Tons)

  30. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSReal Sector Activity Consumer spending declined by 4.7% in the third quarter compared to an increase of 4.7% in the second quarter; However, compared to the corresponding quarter in 2017, consumer spending was 1.0% higher. Figure 16: Retail Sales (Quarterly, K’million and annual growth) Source: Bank of Zambia

  31. Preliminary data indicate that the current account deficit narrowed by 4.4% to US $277.5 million, underpinned by an increase in the surplus on the balance on goods*. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSExternal Sector Table 6: Balance of Payments (US$’million) *Trade data was revised after adjustments made to imports of cobalt ores from Congo (DR). The revised data was realigned to the International Monetary Fund’s Balance of Payments Manual 6 Standards. Source: Bank of Zambia

  32. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSFiscal performance The fiscal deficit, on a cash basis, for 2018 is estimated at around 7% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) against the budget target of 6.1%, and the actual outturn of 7.8% of GDP in 2017. However, as reflected in the Ministry of Finance November 2018 Statement, domestic arrears rose to K14.7 billion as at end-June 2018 from K13.9 billion in March 2018. Speedy implementation of austerity measures outlined by Government has the potential to moderate the pressures on Government financing, private sector liquidity challenges, debt distress, inflationary pressures, and threats to the stability of the financial sector.

  33. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSInflation During the quarter, inflation rose to an average of 7.9% mainly due to high food prices and the depreciation in the Kwacha exchange rate. Inflation outcome was 0.4 percentage points higher than the average of 7.5% recorded in second quarter. • At end-September 2018, inflation was 7.9%, up from 7.4% in June (Figure 15). • Food inflation increased to an average of 8.3% from 7.0% in the second quarter. • However, non-food inflation declined to an average of 7.7% from 8.2% in the second quarter.

  34. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSInflation • Month-on-month inflation closed at 0.2% in September 2018, same as in June 2018 (Figure 16). • Monthly food inflation was recorded at 0.1% in September, down from 0.3% in June while monthly non-food inflation rose to 0.3% from 0.2%. • In October 2018, annual inflation rose to 8.3%, driven by non-food inflation which increased to 8.3% from 7.3% following increase in fuel prices and depreciation in the Kwacha/US dollar exchange rate; however, food inflation declined to 8.3% from 8.6%. • Monthly inflation rose to 0.7% in October 2018 on the back of the increase in both food and non-food inflation to 0.3% and 1.2% from 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.

  35. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSInflation • Figure 17: Inflation Developments, y-o-y Source: Bank of Zambia

  36. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSInflation • Figure 18: Inflation Developments, m-o-m Source: Bank of Zambia

  37. MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK Real GDP growth Real GDP growth outlook remain positive, but faces significant downside risks. Growth expected to be driven by: Mining; Manufacturing; Construction; and, Wholesale and retail Stable supply of electricity will support growth in these sectors. Figure 19: Real GDP Growth (%) Source: Ministry of Finance, Central Statistical Office

  38. MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK Inflation Inflation is projected to remain outside the upper bound of the 6-8% target range during the first three quarters (i.e. fourth quarter 2018 to second quarter 2019) of the forecast period (i.e. fourth quarter 2018 to third quarter 2019), and trend toward the mid-point of the target range (7%) thereafter. The inflation outlook is dominated by upside risks, which include: tighter than expected global financial conditions; higher than expected crude oil prices; lower than anticipated copper prices; higher than programmed fiscal deficits; and, rising debt service payments.

  39. CONCLUSION The MPC observed that although inflation is projected to exceed the upper bound of the target range in the early part of the forecast period, it will return and remain within the target range in the latter part of the forecast period. The Committee also noted that growth in the economy remains low, with increased downside risks. Further, the Committee observed that sticking to the 2019 Budget and speedy implementation of the austerity measures announced by Government is critical to restoring macroeconomic stability, investor confidence and supporting economic growth.

  40. CONCLUSION High non-performing loans (NPLs) also remain a concern to the Committee given the potential to compromise the stability of the financial sector if not reduced to acceptable levels. On the whole, the Committee concluded that should inflation remain outside the upper bound of the target range for longer than projected, adjustments to the policy stance would be taken.

  41. THANK YOU AND GOD BLESS…

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