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New technologies, including geo / climate engineering

New technologies, including geo / climate engineering. Philippe Bougeault Météo-France. Trends for NWP systems. Integrated NWP systems (for efficiency ) nowcasting , short-range, medium-range, monthly , seasonal and decadal are increasingly part of an integrated set of codes

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New technologies, including geo / climate engineering

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  1. New technologies, includinggeo/climate engineering Philippe Bougeault Météo-France

  2. Trends for NWP systems • Integrated NWP systems (for efficiency) • nowcasting, short-range, medium-range, monthly, seasonal and decadal are increasingly part of an integrated set of codes • Seamlessforecasts (more easy to explain to users) • transition smoothlyfrom on time range to the next • Continued trend towardshigherresolution • global grid <10km, regionalgrid < 500m expected in 2020 • Generalization of ensembles • Ensembles of impact models • Towards the end of the « deterministicforecasts »?

  3. Model dynamics • Revisiting the basic equations for non-hydrostatic dynamics • More scalable dynamical cores, optimizing the data flux between processors • More « local » discretization methods • Develop use of GPUs and accelerators • Towards unstructured grids to better represent steep orography (already done in ocean models) Renewed interest in anelastic formulation ECMWF scalability programme

  4. Model physics • Towards more conservative variables • Marquet’s « entropicpotentialtemperature » Θs • More advancedmicrophysics • two-moment schemeswillbecome the minimum complexity for a microphysicsscheme • Accounting for horizontal exchanges by turbulence and radiation for gridcells < 1km • Parametrization of convection remains a difficultproblem for gridcells > 5km • More « grey zone » problems as the integratedforecastssystemswillbeusedatvariousresolutions

  5. New couplingrequirements(Earth system) Copernicus Atmosphere Service delegated to ECMWF • Coupling with atmospheric composition • MACC project as a forerunner • Aerosols first for cloud/aerosol interactions, fog forecasts, then ozone, CO2, etc… • More requirements in mass conservation • Coupling with continental surfaces • Emergence of tiled surface models as independant (complex) systems, coupled to the atmosphere, and in need of their own data assimilation • Need for more realistic representations of urban surfaces and boundary layers • Coupling with the ocean and the sea-ice • Also increasingly for short-range NWP • Possibly with an explicit description of the ocean waves Development of urban meteorology

  6. Data assimilation techniques • Evolution driven by bothprogress in science and constraintsfrommassivelyparallel machine architectures • Increasinglyhybridmethods (ensembles-variational) • 4D-EN-VAR nowexplored in several centres • Avoids the need for TL and AD models • Requires more storage of data Driving requirements for HPC and storage

  7. New observations: • High spectral resolution IR sounders on geostationnary satellites (MTG in 2020) • Earthcare mission willprovide new information on aerosols and clouds • GPM mission on global precipitations • First wind lidar in space: Aeolus in 2016 • Advanced usage of met radars • Doppler, polarimetry, refractivity • Radars/windfarms cohabitation, specific issues to explore • New types of observations • Surface wind lidars, Mode S aircraft data, opportunity data fromtelecom networks, etc….

  8. Geo-Engineering • Increasinginterest in variousgeo-engineering techniques as GHG emissions continue to be important and threaten the Earthclimate • There are many good reasons to refuse to engage intogeo-engineering • Urgent need to develop expertise on geo-engineering impacts and costswithin CAS and WMO, in order to become a key player in international discussions on geo-engineering and deliver the best possible scientificviews

  9. Recent progress in France • Geo-engineering will likely appear as a research topics in the new National Research Strategy => this will drive research budgets of the National Research Agency • The National Research Agency has conducted a wide discussion on the ethics and feasibility of geo-engineering, conclusions have been delivered recently

  10. Recommandations made to theNational Research Agency (March 2014) • Use veryprecisewording, as geo-engineering is a vague concept and carries lots of ethicalconcerns • Capture of atmospheric CO2 by confined, regional or global techniques • Solar radiation management • Solar radiation management • Not OK to fundpurelytechnologicalresearch on this! • OK to fund « systemic » researchincludingassessment of impacts and efficiency

  11. CO2 capture and storage • The confined/regional/global techniques pose differentproblems, especiallywhentheyrely on commongoodslike the ocean • OK to fundtechnologicalresearch of confined or regionalremoval techniques, thatcouldbelatergeneralized • Fund in priorityresearch on « geo-engineering as second intention » • Conductdetailedriskanalysis in a systemicapproach, egassesscarefully impacts of any technique on water • Develop a national expertise in all aspects of geo-engineering • Philosophical, ethical, historical, juridical, governanceaspects • Continue promotingactively the reduction of GHG emissions • Engage in dialogue with civil society

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