Investigation of Complex River System Operational Policy – Modeling Obstacles and Solutions

1. Investigation of Complex River SystemOperational Policy – Modeling Obstacles and Solutions James VanShaarRiverside Technology, inc.(TVA Flood Control Operations EIS Model)

2. RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background Purpose To determine if changes in reservoir system operating policies could create greater overall public value

3. RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background Purpose To determine if changes in reservoir system operating policies could create greater overall public value System Integrated system provides multiple benefits Trade-offs create competing demands for use of water Stakeholders have different views on priorities

4. NO Holds Barred! RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background Purpose To determine if changes in reservoir system operating policies could create greater overall public value System Integrated system provides multiple benefits Trade-offs create competing demands for use of water Stakeholders have different views on priorities Plan Two-year Reservoir Operations Study initiated Any and all uses of the water that flows through the reservoir system and all aspects of the current operating policies

5. RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background Issues Flood risk Water quality Economic Environmental Cultural Navigation Water supply Recreation (reservoir and downstream) Hydropower and non-hydropower generation Public values on the use of water Support of other federal agencies

6. RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background Base Case Simulation 99 years at 6 hour timestep: ~144k timesteps

7. RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background Base Case Simulation 99 years at 6 hour timestep: ~144k timesteps

8. RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background Base Case Simulation 99 years at 6 hour timestep: ~144k timesteps 36 dams and 14 damage centers

9. RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background Base Case Simulation 99 years at 6 hour timestep: ~144k timesteps 36 dams and 14 damage centers 69 historic storms scaled 1.5x, 2.0x and 2.5x

10. RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background Base Case Simulation 99 years at 6 hour timestep: ~144k timesteps 36 dams and 14 damage centers 69 historic storms scaled 1.5x, 2.0x and 2.5x Lather. Rinse. . .

11. RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background Base Case Simulation 99 years at 6 hour timestep: ~144k timesteps 36 dams and 14 damage centers 69 historic storms scaled 1.5x, 2.0x and 2.5x Alternative Scenarios Modify for alternative operational policy Repeat for 5+ alternative operational policies.

12. RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background Base Case Simulation 99 years at 6 hour timestep: ~144k timesteps 36 dams and 14 damage centers 69 historic storms scaled 1.5x, 2.0x and 2.5x Alternative Scenarios Modify for alternative operational policy Repeat for 5+ alternative operational policies.

13. RESERVOIR OPERATIONS STUDY Background Base Case Simulation 99 years at 6 hour timestep: ~144k timesteps 36 dams and 14 damage centers 69 historic storms scaled 1.5x, 2.0x and 2.5x Alternative Scenarios Modify for alternative operational policy Repeat for 5+ alternative operational policies. Analysis Extract seasonal and annual peak flow / pool / stage Compare Alternatives against Base Case If necessary, combine / revise alternatives. Repeat.

14. Model Design Major Concerns • Run-time • Model size • Accuracy of policy representation • Decision tracking: debugging, calibration, reproduction • Extensibility to alternatives

15. Model Design Power production rule set Generic Tributary Algorithms • Applied to virtually all non-sloped power reservoirs • Foundation of all operation policy • Quarantined deviation code for non-conformist projects

16. Model Design Power production rule set Mainstem Fixed Rule (sloped-power reservoir) • Acceptable discharge vs. pool elevation operational points

17. Model Design Power production rule set Mainstem Fixed Rule (sloped-power reservoir) • Acceptable discharge vs. pool elevation operational points • Recovery mode • Fixed rule curve abandonment

18. Model Design Power production rule set

19. Model Design Power production rule set Results of rule set design • Carefully tested, compact, reused code base • Eliminated re-firing of rules • Decision variables stored • Limited re-solution of objects • Individual policy relegated to parameters, not logic

20. Model Application System Segmentation • Space

21. Non-Power Tributary Upper Tributary Upper Mainstem Lower Mainstem Model Application System Segmentation

22. Model Application System Segmentation • Space • Four Models • Reuse of power rule set • Time

23. Model Application Control and Data Management

24. Model Application Control and Data Management

25. Model Application Control and Data Management

26. Model Application Control and Data Management Control Algorithm: For each successive run period-- • Modify TSTool and RiverWare batch control files • Run TSTool initialization commands • Access archived data • Locate RiverWare input in expected directory • Run RiverWare using its control file • Import data • Simulation • Export data • Save model with new name • Run TSTool archival commands • Store results in archive time series files

27. Model Application Control and Data Management Design Storms • Apply revised control algorithm for each storm • Revision includes consideration for • Appropriate initial data • Storage location of new archival data

28. Model Application Results of Approach • Flexibility • Debugging • Event isolation • Run-time • Consistency throughout alternatives • Built-in archival of runs / models / decisions • Elimination of model size concerns

29. Regulated Alternative X Alternative Scenarios Alternative Operational Scenario Flood Frequency and Damage Curves Dollars of Damage Percent Exceedance

30. Conclusion Thank you for your time and attention. Any Questions?

31. Thank you. Fall Creek Falls, TN