Urgent Call for Climate Action: Understanding the Kyoto Protocol

1. The Pernicious Impact of Climate Change A call for action-NOW! A Presentation By Dr. V.P.JAUHARI, IAS. Chairman And Sanjay Gadhalay CEO Center For Climate Change and Environment Advisory cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

2. Lets all pray to the god’s that we do not let down the future generations of inhabitants of this planet as responsible custodians in our avarice and greed to exploit what we have on hand ! cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

3. “Earth has enough for everyone’s need but not for everybody’s greed” MAHATMA GANDHI

4. An Overall Backgrounder What you wanted to know but were afraid to ask!

5. The Vexatious Carbon Cycle – Circle of life Stake holders Environment and the world I/Me /myself Us/Our society /friends /interdependents

6. The Elusive “Kyoto Protocol” The Kyoto Protocol is a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC or FCCC), an international environmental treaty with the goal of achieving stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. • The Kyoto Protocol establishes legally binding commitment for the reduction of four greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride), and two groups of gases (hydrofluorocarbons and per fluorocarbons) produced by "annex I"(industrialized) nations, as well as general commitments for all member countries. • As of January 2009 183 parties have ratified the protocol, which was initially adopted for use on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan and which entered into force on 16 February 2005.   • Under Kyoto, 36 industrialized countries agreed to reduce their collective green house gas (GHG) emissions by 5.2% from the level in 1990. cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

7. Kyoto… The reason for the lengthy time span between the terms of agreement being settled upon and the protocol being engaged( adopted for use on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan and which entered into force on 16 February 2005.) was due to terms of Kyoto requiring at least 55 parties to ratify the agreement and for the total of those parties emissions to be at least 55% of global production of greenhouse gases. cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

8. Kyoto…what do they want? Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen from 280ppm before the industrial revolution to around 387ppm today. Environmentalists say that any new global deal on climate must restrict the growth of CO2 levels to 450ppm, though more pessimistic scientists say that the world is heading for 550ppm or even 650ppm. The only way to get to 350ppm or below is not only to have major cuts in CO2 emissions but also to draw CO2 out of the atmosphere through measures. cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

9. China accounts for 16% of the total global emissions annually and 3 tonnes per capita.US @20% is comparable with China on an absolute level but its per capita emissions are 20 tonnes. India's contribution at @4% stands at a mere 1.1 tonne per capita and a meagre 4% in absolute terms on an annual basis. Kyoto –relative shares of damage … cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

10. Kyoto –Directive UNFCC UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change guidelines that developed countries should cut emissions by 25-40 per cent from 1990 levels by 2020 to keep temperatures below a 2 C rise.  Else it’s a Loose Loose game –with the developing countries being the most effected ! cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

11. India and China, which have ratified the Kyoto protocol, are not obligated to reduce greenhouse gas production at the moment as they are developing countries; i.e. they weren't seen as the main culprits for emissions during the period of industrialization thought to be the cause for the global warming of today cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

12. Key issues in Climate Change Environmental Personal Social

13. Key issues in Climate Change • Air /Water/Soil /Forests • Availability • Quality • Seasons /Monsoons • Natural Disasters • Quality of life • Water • Food • Health • Infrastructure and Livelihood /vocational issues • Safety • Social and Political issues • Education and Awareness defining attitude • Actions in Day to day Life cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

14. Air pollutionWhat is the impact on you ? cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

15. Lead: A toxic metal that’s present in normal petrol and in the air as fine particles. Can affect the central nervous system, cause renal damage and hypertension. Children are three times more at risk than adults. Sulphur dioxide: Colourless gas that is a part of diesel exhaust and factory emissions. Affects upper respiratory tract. Causes bronchial problems, nose blockage and a hacking cough. Suspended Particulate Matter: Particles of dust and carbon, coated with toxic gases, all emanating from factory emissions and vehicle exhaust. They coat the lungs. Cause respiratory infections, persistent cough and throat irritation. Aggravate asthma. Benzene: Cannot be seen, It’s part of unleaded petrol and is emitted from catalytic converters. A known carcinogen, it has been linked to lung cancer and leukemia and is said to damage the central nervous system. No safe limit: there just shouldn’t be any benzene around. Carbon Monoxide: Colourless and odourless, it comes from petrol vehicles, mostly two and three wheelers. Reduces the ability of blood to carry oxygen. Exacerbates heart disorders. Oxides of Nitrogen: Formed during fuel combustion in motor vehicles and power stations. Convert to nitrogen dioxide, which leads to bronchial infections, clods, headaches and eye irritation. A recent spurt in fibrosis cases in Mumbai has been traced to these pollutants. A Areas Affected • Lungs • Respiratory Tract • Nose/Eyes • Brain • Kidney • Entire body How the Poisons in the Air Affect You Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHS) : Unburnt from diesel engines. Cause drowsiness, eye irritation, cough and are suspected to be cancer causing. There is no such thing as a safety level for PAHs.

16. Air quality in Urban Centres is a matter of concern in India. The graphs shows the status of major cities in India. * NEERIStudies cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

17. Trends in Annual Average Concentration of SO2 in Residential areas of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata

18. Trends in Annual Average concentration of NO2 in Residential Areas of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkota

19. Trends in Annual Average concentration of RSPM in Residential Areas of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkota

20. TOTAL HEALTH COST

21. PER CAPITA HEALTH COSTS

22. The dirty lungs of a patient from Delhi. The black spots shows deposition of carbon almost like a miner’s lung. It is as if people of Delhi are living in a mine. It shows that the person has been regularly inhaling polluted air with a lot of carbon particles which can come from burning of coal or from vehicular exhaust. In Delhi, diesel vehicles put out a lot of carbon soot and diesel use is nearly three times that of petrol. Damage to lungs, however, comes not so much from the carbon as much at it comes from exposure to sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and fine particles (less than 2.5 microns) which are present in diesel exhaust in a big way. If carbon from diesel exhaust is getting into the lungs as shown in this picture, then so are the deadly elements of diesel and petrol.

23. The Dangers of Diesel usage • Diesel is more polluting than Petrol. • Diesel pollutes through Nox, So2 and SPM. 95-100% pollution comes from this. • Particles of less than 1 micron in size emitted by diesel is coated with highly Carcinogenic Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAH.)

24. Diseases Conclusively linked to Air pollution are : • Hypertension, • Renal (kidney) damage, • Asthama, • Cough, • Increased heart disorders, • Eye irritation, • Disorder in Central Nervous System, • Cancer, • Not much research is done on impacts ye but studies are planned . • Indian Institute of Health and Family Welfare found soaring levels of lead around Hyderabad/Secunderabad/Cyberabad cities ranging between 17-32 microgram per decilitre. • This will eventually impact and effect in lower IQ of children.

25. Health costs due to ambient air pollution levels exceeding WHO guidelines in Indian cities

26. WATER QUALITY • Most of rivers, lakes in the country are polluted – • Sources of pollution are • Industrial, • Domestic, • Agricultural runoff. • Available Water is deteriorating in quality due to: • Biological contamination of surface water sources, • Due to untreated or partially treated sewage, • exceeds permissible limits at many locations. • Overexploitation of ground-water, cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

27. WATER QUALITY ..contd • Around 85 per cent of the rural population of the country uses groundwater for drinking and domestic purposes. High concentrations of fluoride and arsenic in groundwater beyond the permissible limits of 1.5 mg/l and 0.05 mg/l, respectively poses health hazard. • In all, 19 states in India have been identified as ‘endemic’ areas for fluorosis, with an estimated 44 millions people impacted, and another 66 million at risk. The scenario is the worst in the hard rock terrain viz., granites. cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

28. WATER QUALITY .contd 3 , • Arsenic is a known carcinogen and is highly toxic. • It is perhaps the only human carcinogen for which there is adequate evidence of carcinogenic risk by both inhalation and ingestion (Centeno et al. 2002; Chen & Ahsan 2004). • The occurrence of Arsenic in groundwater was first reported in 1980 in West Bengal in India. Apart from West Bengal, arsenic contamination in groundwater has been found in the states of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh and Assam. • Arsenic in groundwater has been reported in 15 districts in Bihar, 9 district in Uttar Pradesh, 8 districts in West Bengal and one district each in Chhattisgarh and Assam cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

29. Do you still want to have a glass of water HAVE A GLASS OF WATER IT CONTAINS TRACES OF TOXIC DICHLORO-DIPHENYL TRICHLOROETHANE (DDT) 203.00 ng/l TOXIC BENZENE HEXA CHLORIDE (BHC)218.83 ng/l TOXIC DIELDRIN 30.44 ng/l; CHROMIUM 0.01 ng/l TOXIC ENDOESULFAN 51.30 ng/l IRON 8.20 ng/l; NICKEL 0.02 ng/l; ZINC 0.60 ng/l; CADMIUM 0.01 ng/l 80% of the diseases are water born but pitiably Sewage is treated partially in only 3-5 tons in A.P. waterstress is increasing due to wasteful water use, ground water depletion, pollution and improper re-charging & harvesting schemes. This water famine/stress will double in next 30 years.

30. Lost to sea 29% Deposited in dams 10% Annual Soil Loss 5,334 million tonnes India has lowest per capita land availability in the World but still losses it freely. Shifted about 61% (much deposited in rivers)

31. The Land Loss-where ? Estimated at National Level causes : • Water logging 3.08 Million Ha • Soil alkalinisation and salinisation 2.4 Million Ha • Mining operations • Large dams and urbanisation has diverted couple of millions of hectares of agricultural land for non-agricultural purpose • Mineral Mining … production (in rupees) has increased nearly 50 fold in the last 30 years several million hectares of good crop and forest lands have been destroyed by mining operations and hundreds of villages have been depopulated • Administration and Governance based :Absence of effective afforestation and unscientific water and land management practices under Command Areas of major projects cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

32. The Trend in AP • Closely tracks the National trend • According to a World Bank study in India land degradation accounts for between 4.0 percent and 6.3 percent productivity loss in total agricultural output every year - which amounts to US $1.5 - 2.4 billion. • Irrigation projects and Water shed projects with political rather than scientific rationale • Command area of most of the large dams in A.P. are increasingly becoming saline, waterlogged and alkaline apart from reservoirs getting stilted up. This reduces their life and lowers productivity of the land. cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

33. FORESTS • ROLE: • Filter the air and moderate local climate. • Factors such as temperature, humidity, wind, speed and rainfall. Store carbon which otherwise might contribute to global warming. • Affect flow of water on and in the ground. • Serve as moisture reservoirs. • Contribute to soil production and prevent soil erosion, • Provide habitat for a huge range of living organisms. • Provide much needed oxygen, timber, medicines. • Help in preventing floods, drought, water logging, salinisation and alkalisation.

34. Change in the Forest Cover of India cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

35. WATER BALANCE OF A NATURAL SHOLA FOREST Rain 1345 mm • Role of Forests • Forests play an extremely important role in controlling floods by • reducing and/or regulating water runoff; • increasing infiltration of water into the soil; and, • reducing soil erosion and landslides Transportation 540 mm (40%) Interception ( 35%) Runoff 335 mm (25%) Infiltration 217 mm/hr

36. NATURAL DISASTERS FLOOD - PRONE AREA (million hectares) Government flood control measures mainly consist of dams and embankments. All these efforts have failed to control floods. Dams have themselves become an important cause of floods. Embankment have disrupted the natural drainage system in flood plains. Deforestation and siltation of rivers has also compounded problem.

37. SOCIAL IMPACT OF EMBANKMENTS Embankments encourage human occupation of the flood plains by instilling a false sense of security. When rivers in spate breach the embankments a tidal wave hits the villages nearby

38. ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF EMBANKMENTS Unembanked river Unembanked river in flood Higher flood levels due to reduced flood plain and increased siltation Embanked river in flood Rise in river bed Reduced natural fertility

39. The Causes of Drought Drought is the combined result of the neglect and over-exploitation of common environmental resources - essentially the systems that provided a cushion against the problems caused by dry periods Overexploitation of forests Overexploitation of Grazing lands Overexploitation of Ground water Neglect of tanks Inequitable distribution of canal irrigation water

40. The Impact of Drought Acute Shortages of Fodder Sharp Decline in Agricultural Production Acute Shortagesof Drinking Water Acute Shortagesof Alternative Occupations

41. Drought Prone Areas of India cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

42. States under Drought Prone Area Programme cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

43. Cyclones –A natural Disaster common to the Coastal corridoor. • Cyclone are another types of Natural disaster which is on the rise. • They bring with them rising wind storms and inundation by tidal waves. • Coastal erosion gets aggravated due to this phenomena. • Evidence of permanent land submergence along Indian coast is substantial. • The global warming is threatening permanent submergence of many of the coastal cities of the world including India.

44. Climate Change • Climate change reflects abnormal variation to hurt climate and subsequent affect on other parts of the earth, such as in the ice capes over duration ranging from decades to millions of years. • In recent usage climate change usually refers to changes in modern climate or global warming. • Since industrial revolution began about 150 years ago, human activities have added significant quantities of green house gases to the atmosphere. This could lead to greater warming which in turn can impact accelerated climate change.

45. Climate Change –GHG gasses • Between Pre-industrial period and 2005, global atmospheric concentration of GHG gasses increases have been as follows : • Carbon dioxide : 280 ppm to 379 ppm, • Methane : 715 ppb to 1774 ppb • Nitrous oxide : 270 ppb to 309 ppb • Reference (IPCC 2007). • IPCC Report 2007 predicts global temperature raise by 2 - 4.5oC by the end of this century.

46. India’s share in Global CO2 Emissions cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

47. Possible impact of climate change on India. Vulnerable • Represent an additional stress on ecological and socioeconomic systems that are already facing tremendous pressures due to rapid urbanization, industrialization and economic development. With its huge and growing population, a 7500-km long densely populated and low-lying coastline, and an economy that is closely tied to its natural resource base, India is considerably vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

48. Possible impact of climate change on India The various studies conducted in the country have shown that: • The surface air temperatures in India are going up at the rate of 0.4oC per hundred years, particularly during the post-monsoon and winter season. • Using predictive models, its concluded that mean winter temperatures will increase by as much as 3.2oC in the 2050s and 4.5oC by 2080s, due to Greenhouse gases. • Summer temperatures will increase by 2.2oC in the 2050s and 3.2oC in the 2080s. cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

49. Possible impact of climate change on India .. contd • Extreme temperatures and heat spells have already become common across India specially in the plains of the North ,leading to loss of human life. • In 1998 alone, 650 deaths occurred in Orissa due to heat waves. • Erratic Seasonal weather patterns • Delayed Monsoons • Floods and Droughts simultaneously in different parts of the Country. --Water wars in MP /UP droughts in Assam , floods in AP , Bihar • Food insecurity cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg

50. Possible impact of climate change on India .Cont... • Climate change has had an effect on the Monsoons. • India and indian Economyu is heavily dependent on the monsoon to meet its agricultural and water needs, keeping 70%of its population in Rural areas Employed enabling Social Sustainability and also for protecting and propagating its rich biodiversity. • Subtle changes have already been noted in the monsoon rain patterns • by scientists at IIT, Delhi. They also warn that India will experience a decline in summer rainfall by the 2050s, • summer rainfall accounts for almost 70% of the total annual rainfall over India and is crucial to Indian agriculture. • Relatively small climatic changes can cause large water resource problems, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions such as northwest India. • This will have an impact on agriculture, drinking water and on generation of hydro-electric power. cccea.hyd.ngri071109/sg