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CRGAQS: Latest CAMx 2018 Results R2

Explore the latest 2018 CAMx simulations, compare 2004 and 2018 results, review organic carbon components, and assess various scenarios with trend lines for August and November episodes presented to the Gorge Study Technical Team.

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CRGAQS: Latest CAMx 2018 Results R2

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  1. CRGAQS:Latest CAMx 2018 Results R2 Presentation to the Gorge Study Technical Team ENVIRON International Corporation Alpine Geophysics, LLC May 23, 2007

  2. Today’s Presentation • Review 2004 extinction against IMROVE • Review modeled organic carbon components • Show revised nephelometer comparisons • Account for high humidity in November episode • Latest 2018 CAMx simulations • Review results for August episode • Compare 2004, 2018 and 2018 What-if’s • Review results for November episode • Compare 2004, 2018 and 2018 What-if’s • Trend lines • Next Steps

  3. 2004 Extinction vs IMPROVE

  4. 2004 Extinction vs IMPROVE

  5. CAMx Organics • Primary organic aerosol (POA) • Sources: any combustion • Emitted as a stable aerosol • No evaporation/re-condensation • Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) • VOCs oxidize to condensable gases • SOA forms as f(T, RH, aerosol mass) • Condensation/evaporation possible

  6. CAMx Organics • CAMx treats 5 kinds of SOA • SOA1-3 from anthropogenic VOC sources • Tracks formation from aromatics and parafins • Combustion and fugitive sources • SOA4-5 from biogenic VOC • Terpenes generate two SOA products • Less apt to evaporate • Updates coming for both CAMx and CMAQ • Sesqueterpenes and isoprene

  7. 2004 vs. 2018 Results (August)

  8. 2004 vs. 2018 Results (August)

  9. 2004 vs. 2018 Results (November)

  10. 2004 vs. 2018 Results (November)

  11. November Nephelometer

  12. November Nephelometer

  13. What-if Scenarios • Case 01 – zero Boardman emissions • Case 02 – zero NH3 emissions for PSAT region 5 (east of Gorge) • Case 03 – zero on-road mobile source emissions for PSAT region 2 (Portland and Vancouver) • Case 04 – zero major point source emissions for PSAT region 2 • Case 05 – zero major point source emissions for PSAT region 1 (in-Gorge)

  14. PSAT Regions

  15. 2004 vs. 2018 Results (August)

  16. 2004 vs. 2018 Results (August)

  17. Calculation of Trend Lines • 2004 to 2018 trend in extinction • Average daily extinction over “high” days • August Episode • August 10-15 at Mt Zion • August 12-15, 19 at Wishram • November Episode • November 6,8,9,13,16 at Zion • November 8,10-14 at Wishram • Calculate “Deciview” from extinction • Linearizes extinction effect on visual range • DV change of ~1 is “just perceptible” change in visibility

  18. August Trend Lines -0.44 Mm-1 per year -0.07 per year -6.2 Mm-1 -10% -1.0 -0.22 per year -3.1 -0.99 Mm-1 per year -13.9 Mm-1 -27%

  19. 2004 vs. 2018 Results (November)

  20. 2004 vs. 2018 Results (November)

  21. November Trend Lines -0.07 per year -2.42 Mm-1 per year -1.0 -33.9 Mm-1 -9% -0.12 per year -1.7 -3.67 Mm-1 per year -51.4 Mm-1 -15%

  22. Next Steps • Apply modeled changes to observed levels • Finish PSAT (2004/2018, August/ November) • Complete report

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