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THE PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGY Ing. S. Castello castello@casaccia.enea.it

THE PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGY Ing. S. Castello castello@casaccia.enea.it ENEA, Renewable Sources Sector July 2006. PV plants features Applications Stand alone plants Grid connected systems and Distributed generation Demonstrative projects Tracking and concentrating systems Market

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THE PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGY Ing. S. Castello castello@casaccia.enea.it

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  1. THE PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGY Ing. S. Castello castello@casaccia.enea.it ENEA, Renewable Sources Sector July 2006

  2. PV plants features Applications Stand alone plants Grid connected systems and Distributed generation Demonstrative projects Tracking and concentrating systems Market PV industry Plant and kWh costs Diffusion programmes SUMMARY

  3. The efficiency of cells is higher (30% - 40%) high concentration factors: 100X – 1.000X (Irr*logIrr) smaller cells Solar radiation Solar radiation Lens PV cell PV cell CONCENTRATING PV • PV material (high cost), is partially substituted with mirrors or lenses (lower cost)

  4. CONCENTRATING PV The incident energy is almost the same with respect to fixed plates systems: only the direct component of light is exploited Concentrating system Fixed flat plate (tilt = latitude)

  5. CONCENTRATOR MODULES • - Concentration factor: 100X – 400X • - Lens efficiency: 80% - 85% • - cell cooling difficulty • - Inexpensive polymer lens • lifetime not verified

  6. CONCENTRATORS Central tower Dishes • - Concentration factor: 1.000X • - Mirror efficiency: 85% - 92% • currently high costs • Cooling challenge Trough system

  7. Aim: assessment of technical and economical feasibility of PV concentration for centralised generation Ongoing activities Optimisation of the most appropriate technologies for solar cells, optical devices, concentrator modules, tracking system Development of a 5 kW standard unit c-Si cells optimised at 100-400 suns refractive prismatic lenses Experimentation on 5 units Planned activities Development of high efficiency cells Investigation on optical devices based on Fresnel lenses and Compound Parabolic Concentrators PHOCUS PROJECT (PV Concentrators for Utility Scale)

  8. CONCENTRATOR MODULE Optical system (prismatic lenses) Structure with separators PV cells Heat sink

  9. Contains information on the technical performance, reliability and costs of 431 monitored PV plants located worldwide. Germany (118), Japan (95), Switzerland (64), Italy (35), France (31),… Applications: Stand alone, hybrids, grid connected Plant size: from 1 to 3300 kW Mounting typologies: facades, flat and sloped roofs, integrated roofs, sound barriers, free-standing Performance data collected from 1986 (Japan) IEA-TASK 2 PERFORMANCE DATABASE

  10. For each plant provide General information Component data and system configuration Data collected (Irr, Pdc, Pac,..) Costs Calculated data (index of performance) The user can select PV system, present monitoring data, calculated results export these data into spreadsheet programs check the operational behavior of existing PV plants get a report on performance results Can be downloaded from www.iea-pvps-task2.org IEA-TASK 2 PERFORMANCE DATABASE

  11. IEA source

  12. EFFICIENCIES AND COSTS Costs 84 85 91 91 93 94 96

  13. INDICES OF PERFORMANCE

  14. aimed to collect worldwide: Costs of systems, components, maintenance (during their life cycle) Production data and maintenance information will allow to: compare costs of system for different markets in different countries as well as different sizes of installations know the true LCA predict performance life expectancy, mean time between failure and costs to service and replace parts accessible on http://iea.tnc.ch GLOBAL ECONOMIC SURVEY

  15. IEA source

  16. INSTALLED POWER • - IEA countries: 2.8 GW • Total: 3.3 GW • 1.2 MW in 2004 • Growth rate: 42% • Projections for 2005: 4,5 GW • applications: 70% of small grid connected systems Worldwide IEA countries IEA source

  17. CUMULATIVE POWER IN THE COUNTRIES(end 2004) • 94% in JPN, USA and DEU • Impact of market support in terms of installed capacity per capita: • DEU: 10 W/c • JPN: 9 W/c • CHE: 3 W/c • NLD: 3 W/c • ITA: 0,5 W/c IEA source

  18. TRENDS IN SOME COUNTRIES • Annual rate growth: • DEU: 137% • Sustained by feed-in tariffs (0.5 €/kWh) • constant in JPN: 22%, net metering at 0.2 €/kWh + low subsidy on capital costs (10%) IEA source

  19. DISTRIBUTION OF APPLICATIONAS • PV roofs : CHE, DEU, GBR, JPN, NLD • Vacation cottages: SWE NOR, FIN • Rural electrification: MEX, FRA • Commercial applications: USA e AUS IEA source

  20. Primary applications Off Grid domestic: 5,3 MW rural electrification (5000 isolated households promoted through 80% incentives in the early 80’) lighting Economic industrial applications: 7 MW telecommunication signaling cathodic protection Demonstration (sharply increasing in the 90’): 6,7 MW Distributed generation, growing over the last year (rooftop Programme): 17 MW TOTAL: 36 MW PV SYSTEM MARKET IN ITALY

  21. Rooftop Programme Demonstartion Projects (UE) Law 308: rural electrification CUMULATIVE POWER IN ITALY

  22. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IEA source

  23. World module production in 2004 : 1200 MW (700 in 2003). Only IEA countries: 1070 MW Average growth : 60% JPN: 70 % (50% of the world production) DEU: 66% (second producer) CHI: 400% (100 MW in 2004) ESP: second producer in Europe FRA and ITA: continue to lose market shares Production capacity growth: 17% DEU: awaited expansion not fulfilled yet USA: capacity reduction (abroad production) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

  24. MODULE PRODUCTION BY REGIONS (year 2004) IEA source

  25. Producers: ingots and wafers USA (4 companies + Elken based in NOR): 5100 t DEU (Wacker): 2800 t JPN (Tokuyama) : 1000 t cells and modules C-Si: 850 MW a-Si: 40 MW Others: 280 MW BOS components (inverter) EU: 30 companies (SMA) USA and JPN: 20 companies (Xantrex, Sharp) THE PV INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

  26. Vertically integrated companies (from ingots to cells) Kyocera (JPN), BP Solar, Shell Solar, Photowatt Company attempting to commercialize new processes Silicon ribbon: RWE Schott String ribbon: Evergreen Solar Micro spherical silicon tech.: Canadian Spheral Solar Power Silver cells: Australia Origin Energy THE PV INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

  27. MODULE MANUFACTURERS

  28. 2 major module manufacturer Enitecnologie (ENI, Italy’s oil and gas giant) Mono and multi-crystalline silicon cell and module production Production capacity: 9 MW/year (4.2 MW last year) Helios Technology Fabrication of cells and modules from mono-crystalline silicon wafers Production capacity: 10 MW/year (7 MW last year) Some small companies assembling and encapsulating tailor-made modules (facades, windows, coloured cells). Capacity: 10 MW/y 5 companies manufacturing small and medium size inverters, for on-grid and off-grid applications 100 specialist PV companies offering consultancy, design, installation services and component delivery (some of them constituting “GIFI”, the Italian PV Firm Group) ITALIAN PV INDUSTRY

  29. TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTION p-Si • Limited availability of C-Si feedstock (electronic industry): • necessity of a specific production: solar grade silicon • increase of a-Si market share (has remained at a modest level from 5% to 15%) • Material reduction (Si utilization is still relatively low) and efficiency increase • Concentration (use small area, high efficiency cells)

  30. Actions to be taken: Development of a sustainable market driven by incentives (implementation of deployment measures) Rules clear and appropriate (overcome barriers related to regulations, standards, safety) budget adequate for R&D and activities coordination Strengthen joint initiatives between research and industry Adopt instruments to encourage investment Promote BIPV through the development of PV components to be used in buildings Ensure the Si availability matter at acceptable costs Optimize the recycling process Cooperation with other high tech sectors (flat panel display, micro electronics, nanotechnologies PV INDUSTRY

  31. MARKET EXPECTATIONSTUDY COMPARISON Growth rate) +60% +40%

  32. MODULE PRICES EVOLUTION • Modules prices 3.5 €/W • Module prices increased: • tightening of Si supply • more order in the books of manufacturers than they could fill in • Cost reduction (to 1.5-2 €/ in 2010) • can be achieved by • market growth (scale effect) • research efforts (new materials, manufacturing process optimization)

  33. LEARNING CURVE OF MODULES • Historic learning curve shows a 18% cost decrease for every doubling of the cumulative installed power • The cumulated power has doubled 4 times in the last 10 years (prices reduction: 70%) • The learning curve for C-Si and is expected to continue for the next 10 years till C-Si will reach its saturation value: 1€/W • thin films have the potential to extend learning curve beyond C-Si limit (less material and energy in the process, simpler and highly efficient process 2000 c-Si 2010 thin film 2020 Growth rate in the past: 20%

  34. PRICES OF MODULES AND SYSTEMS IN SOME COUNTRIES • Module prices: 3-4,5 €/W • GCS: 5-7 €/W • slight increase in prices over the previous year • learning curve of systems: shows a 15%-20% cost decrease (BOS cost decrease is along with module cost reduction) systems modules IEA Source

  35. SYSTEM PRICES IEA Source • System prices depend on • application (S.A or G.C.), size, location and mounting typology • dedicated design, technical specification

  36. PRICES IN ITALY

  37. COST DISTRIBUTIONsmall G.C. plants 65% in large size plants

  38. COSTS PROPORTIONAL TO THE SIZE OF THE PLANT PV modules 3,6 €/W Cables and accessories 0,4 €/W Supporting structures 35 €/m2 Site preparation 10 €/m2 dc/dc converter (charge controller)0,3 – 0,6 €/W COSTS PROPORTIONAL TO THE SIZE OF THE BATTERY Battery housing 80 €/kWh battery 200 €/kWh * N° of replacements COSTS PROPORTIONAL TO THE SIZE OF THE MAXIMUM LOAD inverter 400 - 700 €/kW COSTS IN S.A. SYSTEMS

  39. CkWh = (Ci*A + Cm) / E Ci: investment cost 6 - 7 €/W (grid-connected) 10 – 12 €/kW (stand alone) A: capital recovery factor = r / (1- (1+r)-T) r: interest rate (3 %) T: system life span (30 years) Cm: annual maintenance cost (50 – 200 €/kW) E: yearly energy production (1000 – 1300 kWh/kW) CkWh: 0,3 – 0,35 €/kWh (grid-connected) 0,5 – 0,7 €/kWh) (stand alone) THE PV ENERGY COST

  40. COST OF THE kWh For typical system prices (6 €/W) corresponds 0,3 to 0,34 €/kWh, depending on location (Solar radiation) Analysis show that system prices may reduce to 3.5 €/W (0,17-0,2 €/kWh), comparable with the price of energy paid by the end user Rome 2010 Palermo

  41. COST OF THE kWh Small G.C. systems (<5 kWp) • Plant cost: 6 €/W • maintenance : 1% • interest rate: 4% • optimal exposition • kWh cost: • 30 c€ in Sicily • 40 c€ in North Italy • 55 c€ in Germany

  42. 0,6 Grid ext 20 km Diesel 0.75 $/L Grid ext 5 km Grid ext 1 km 0,4 Diesel 0.5 $/L Energy cost ($/kWh) 0,2 PV PV/DIESEL GRID Daily load (kWh/day) PV VS DIESEL ANDGRID EXTENTION For SAS the comparison is done with diesel generator or grid extension. In the case of small daily loads PV is not only cleaner and more reliable, but also a cheaper option

  43. GENERATION COSTS 900 h/a Grid connected rooftop systems 1800 h/a Price payd by end user (including taxes) Bulk cost In sunny countries, GCS will reach competitiveness with retail electricity in few years. PV generation cost will began to compete with bulk production only within 20 years

  44. Time necessary to have NVA = 0 Net value (actualized): NVA = CFA – (Ci – Contribution on c.c.) Cashflow (actualized): CFA = S Pi * (1+r)-i Proceed: Pi = Ep*CkWh – Cm (1+r)-i : actualization factor r: interest rate PAY-BACK TIME Payback time Net value actualized (€/kW) years

  45. c.c.= 20% c.c.= 0% Feed-in tariff Rooftop programme c.c.=75% c.c.= 60% MIXED INCENTIVES

  46. Net value actualized (€/kW)

  47. Electric Grid parameters improvement (peak, transmission losses) Emergency Environmental Emission reduction, acid rain prevention Architectural Building functions (heat and noise insulation water and fire protection electromagnetic reflection) Socio-economic Induced employment Resource diversification Technological transfer ADDED VALUE

  48. COSTS AND ADDED VALUE 42 28 14 0 -14 incentives kWh cost (c€/kWh)

  49. HIGH COST At present is not realistic to recourse to this technology for Energy source diversification Significant emission reduction INTRINSIC FEATURES Among the RES is the most attractive and promising for local and diffuse electricity production (medium and long term) HIGH STRATEGIC VALUE National Governments have launched important Programs increasing Market Production capacity R&D efforts PV PROS AND CONS

  50. INCENTIVES

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