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Narrative Descriptions to Improve the Salience of Climate Projections to Policy and Planning

Narrative Descriptions to Improve the Salience of Climate Projections to Policy and Planning. Richard B. Rood AMS Annual Meeting January 9, 2013. Thanks to NCPP Core Team and Laura Briley. Related Talk: 1:30, Room 12B, Reducing Barriers . Outline. Climate Policy Interface I

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Narrative Descriptions to Improve the Salience of Climate Projections to Policy and Planning

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  1. Narrative Descriptions to Improve the Salience of Climate Projections to Policy and Planning Richard B. Rood AMS Annual Meeting January 9, 2013 Thanks to NCPP Core Team and Laura Briley Related Talk: 1:30, Room 12B, Reducing Barriers

  2. Outline • Climate Policy Interface I • Uncertainty Fallacy • Knowledge System • Definition • Model • Climate Policy Interface II • Salience Challenge • Translational Information • Description • Synthesis • Structured approach to science – policy interface – interface with user and educational communication Chapter 12: Advancing Climate Modeling

  3. From Lemos & Rood (2010) Science-Policy Interface

  4. Science-Policy Interface I: Uncertainty Fallacy • Uncertainty can always used to create doubt and disrupt policy formation. • Reduction of uncertainty is not the essential ingredient in increasing usability and use of climate data and knowledge. • Uncertainty from climate change is only part of the uncertainty of decision making. • Development of policy requires catalysts to promote convergence. From Lemos & Rood (2010)

  5. Knowledge System • Need to bring together disparate information and different points of view to develop strategies for applied problem solving • Key to development of successful strategies: iterative process or co-development with information providers and information users Cash et al: 2002 Lemos & Morehouse, 2005 Dilling & Lemos, 2011

  6. Knowledge System, Science Focused • Two Points • This figure overstates the role of “science” in the knowledge systems • I choose not to draw a line between the two bubbles, as the relation between “science” and the application is not direct. Applications Science & Research

  7. Heuristic Knowledge System Political Science& Research Applications Disciplinary Knowledge These elements sit in a complex and changing relationship within any specific application, as well as across multiple applications. Local Reality Budget Etc.

  8. Knowledge System, Science Focused Dilling & Lemos, 2011 • Information brokers • Collaborative group processes • Embedded capacity • Boundary Organizations • Knowledge Networks Applications Science & Research Cash et al: 2002 • Boundary Management • Dual Accountability • Boundary Objects

  9. Knowledge System, Science Focused Dilling & Lemos, 2011 • Information brokers • Collaborative group processes • Embedded capacity • Boundary Organizations • Knowledge Networks Applications Science & Research Cash et al: 2002 • Boundary Management • Dual Accountability • Boundary Objects Cash et al: 2002 • Legitimacy • Credibility • Salience

  10. Credibility, Legitimacy, Salience • Credibility is an attribute of scientific adequacy. • Legitimacy is an attribute of objectivity, fairness, and a lack of political bias. • Salience requires that information be relevant to the problem to be addressed.

  11. Science-Policy Interface II: Salience Challenge • Usable Science? Tang and Dessai (2012) • U.K. Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) • Bayesian probabilistic projections – highly quantitative uncertainty descriptions • Increases credibility and legitimacy • Reduces salience and usability • Understanding and Interpretation • Information required • Strategy to increase salience • Tailoring to adaptation context or problem

  12. To Support Iterative Co-development“Translation” • Tag information (range of descriptors) • Translate information across disciplinary boundaries • Tailor information to be relevant to specific application • Describe uncertainty • Provide judgment on usability of information •  Knowledge applied to real problems

  13. Types of Translational Information Applications Global Regional Local Basic Data Digital Information Indices Downscaled GIS Formats Seasonality Assessments IPCC NCA Local Narratives What has happened? What will happen? What are the impacts? Guidance Judgment Model Output Fact Sheets Summaries Images Figures Observations Quality Assessment Homogeneity Uncertainty Descriptions Risk Assessments

  14. Challenges: Translational Information • What do we mean by the term? • How do we generate? At scale? • How do we manage? • Link to primary data and knowledge sources • How do we re-use? • How do we accelerate the use of climate knowledge in policy and planning?

  15. Synthesis • Structured approach based on model of knowledge system • Integrated, End-to-end system • Interfaces between different parts of system • Iterative process • Translational information to improve salience •  Scale up by developing translators and boundary organizations • Chapter 12: Advancing Climate Modeling

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