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Presented to: 2009 RNC Women’s Summit June 25, 2009

Presented to: 2009 RNC Women’s Summit June 25, 2009. Linda A. DiVall, President Randall Gutermuth, Vice President

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Presented to: 2009 RNC Women’s Summit June 25, 2009

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  1. Presented to: 2009 RNC Women’s Summit June 25, 2009 Linda A. DiVall, President Randall Gutermuth, Vice President 300 North Lee Street, Suite 400 - Alexandria, VA 22314 - 703-684-3325 (Phone) – www.amview.com

  2. Red to Blue – Why they Flipped • Economy overwhelmingly #1 issue concern • Significant change with intensity of POTUS disapproval 3. Results in clear shift of party identification across all 9 states. In ‘08, 7 of 9 states showed DEM ID advantage, whereas GOP held party ID advantage in 7 of 9 states in ‘04.

  3. Exit Poll Analysis - Congress

  4. Exit Poll Analysis - Congress

  5. Female Voters Rank Ordered by McCain %

  6. Female Voters Trend Analysis

  7. Lessons Learned from 2008

  8. Ideas and Vision Be the Party that stands for something again.  The GOP brand has lost its identity and while there are inherent advantages to being the minority party in these difficult times, until Republicans can show voters a vision of how they will improve voters’ everyday lives and have ideas that address voters’ concerns - health care, economic crisis and energy efficiency - there will be no reason to oust the current party in power.

  9. Take back the middle Independents, especially Independent women, moderates, suburbanites and college graduates continue to trend Democratic.  The Party no longer speaks to the middle class.  These voters don’t want government controlling their lives, but at the same time they expect government to function properly in a time of crisis, be it economic, international or an act of God.

  10. Tap into the wrong track sentiment The Democrats are now forced to govern and while the mood of the country will undoubtedly improve, displeasure—especially among Independents—won’t immediately disappear and will likely shift to the new Democratic administration and the expanded Democratic majority.

  11. The rural strategy math doesn’t add up The 2004 election was an exception rather than a rule.  In 2006 and 2008 successful Democratic candidates learned that by just marginally cutting into the rural base in states such as Virginia, Ohio and Missouri, they would win close races.  Until the GOP can stop the bleeding in the suburbs and actually recapture some of the former Republican coalition there, the trend in statewide losses will continue.  

  12. Continuing to alienate Hispanics will make the GOP a permanent minority party. The growth in the Hispanic vote and the drop off in support with them from 2004 was one of if not the main factor to McCain losing New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado.  If this trend continues suddenly Republicans will have to fight to win Texas.  Rather than alienating Hispanics with fiery rhetoric, the Party needs to find areas of agreement and create true outreach coalitions that go beyond just token Spanish-language ads.

  13. Recapture the technology edge Democrats overwhelmed the GOP on the new technology frontier. This in turn was a contributing factor that drove the huge disparity in the youth vote going for Obama as his campaign was simply technologically relevant to them. Nearly 50% of the electorate are under 44 years of age and the GOP must determine ways to be technologically relevant to them in voter contact, paid advertising, driving traffic to campaign websites and the ability to field candidates that appeal to this younger generation.

  14. Recruit a new breed of Republican Candidates If anything good can come out of losing it is to realize that the same old strategies no longer work.  Recruitment of candidates from areas such as the technology arena, small business endeavors, the health care and education fields, community and municipal leaders and leaders of charitable organizations are all better alternatives than elected officials “moving up.”  Obama and the Democrats owned the change dynamic in 2008, but in 2010 and 2012 GOP candidates can compete on this level if they can be seen as not just another typical politician. We need more women, younger candidates with a strong message appeal that stand out against the perception of the typical GOP politician.

  15. $ $ Role of Government $ $ Do More-Doing Too Much Women: 53%-39% Men: 47%-49% “Do More” Voters Supported Obama 23%-76% “Doing Too Much” Voters Supported McCain 71%-27%

  16. Direction of the Country Diageo/Hotline

  17. Methodology - Women • 1. Battleground States: FL, NC, VA New South • MI, OH, PA Old Economy • IA, IN, MN, MO, WI Heartland • 2. n=800 White Women • Not liberal, not straight voting Republicans or straight voting Democrats • Party ID: GOP 30% • DEM 24% • IND 38% • Ticket-Splitters 51% 5. This universe represents approximately 25% of voters nationally.

  18. Female Typologies Medicare Grandmas (7% of sample) MINOS (17% of Sample) • - 65+ • Receive Medicare • Have grandchildren • Liberal or moderate on fiscal and social issues • Strongly Pro-Choice Wall Street Blues (25% of sample) Single Professionals (7% of sample) • Invest in the Stock Market • Concerned about losing their jobs • Not exclusively reliant on Social Security for retirement • College Degree • Not married or widowed Cul-de-sac Moms (16% of sample) Wal-Mart Women (18% of sample) • Have children • Live in the suburbs or medium sized towns • High school education or less • Household income below $50,000 Country Pride (27% of sample) • - Married • Live in small towns and rural areas • Either moderate or conservative on fiscal and social issues Values Voters (23% of sample) • Conservatives on social issues • Strongly Pro-Life

  19. Wall Street Blues (25% of sample) • Invest in the Stock Market • Concerned about losing their jobs • Not 100% reliant on Social Security for retirement

  20. Wal-Mart Women (18% of sample) • High school education or less • Household income below $50,000

  21. Medicare Grandmas (7% of sample) • - 65+ • Receive Medicare • Have grandchildren

  22. Single Professionals (7% of sample) • College Degree • Not married or widowed

  23. Cul-de-sac Moms (16% of sample) • Have children • Live in the suburbs or medium sized towns

  24. Party Brand

  25. Women’s Typologies Party and Leadership Perceptions

  26. Women Target Mod. Wal-Mart W. MINOS Single Prof. WomenIssue: Everyday Solutions Country Pride WS Blues Medicare GM Cul-De-Sac Moms Value Voters Unsure Strong Agree ‘B’ Somewhat Agree ‘B’ Somewhat Agree ‘A’ Strong Agree ‘A’ Statement A: “The Republican Party is out of touch with the needs of average Americans.” Statement B: “The Republican Party has the solutions to everyday problems.” 58% Agree 28% Agree 34% Strongly Agree 7% Strongly Agree

  27. Women Value Voters Wal-Mart W. Single Prof. MINOS Cul-De-Sac Moms WomenIssue: GOP and Middle Class Medicare GM Country Pride Target Mod. WS Blues Unsure Strong Agree ‘B’ Somewhat Agree ‘B’ Somewhat Agree ‘A’ Strong Agree ‘A’ Statement A: “The Republican Party is oblivious to the needs of the middle class.” Statement B: “The Republican Party’s policies promote a strong economy and create jobs.” 34%Agree 50% Agree 11% Strongly Agree 29% Strongly Agree

  28. Women Cul-De-Sac Moms Value Voters Target Mod. MINOS WomenIssue: Spending Country Pride WS Blues Medicare GM Wal-Mart W. Single Prof. Unsure Strong Agree ‘B’ Somewhat Agree ‘B’ Somewhat Agree ‘A’ Strong Agree ‘A’ Statement A: “The Republican Party can no longer be trusted to curb wasteful spending and manage tax dollars.” Statement B: “The Republican Party is fiscally responsible and protects tax dollars from wasteful spending.” 46% Agree 33% Agree 23% Strongly Agree 8% Strongly Agree

  29. Women Value Voters Target Mod. Single Prof. MINOS Cul-De-Sac Moms WomenIssue: GOP Problems Wal-Mart W. Country Pride Medicare GM WS Blues Unsure Strong Agree ‘B’ Somewhat Agree ‘B’ Somewhat Agree ‘A’ Strong Agree ‘A’ Statement A: “The Republican Party faces fundamental problems that go beyond just President Bush and the bad economy.” Statement B: “There is basically nothing wrong with what the Republican Party stands for, they just need to do a better job at communicating to voters.” 46% Agree 44% Agree 11% Strongly Agree 24% Strongly Agree

  30. Female Typologies Medicare Grandmas (7% of sample) MINOS (17% of Sample) • - 65+ • Receive Medicare • Have grandchildren • Liberal or moderate on fiscal and social issues • Strongly Pro-Choice Wall Street Blues (25% of sample) Single Professionals (7% of sample) • Invest in the Stock Market • Concerned about losing their jobs • Not exclusively reliant on Social Security for retirement • College Degree • Not married or widowed Cul-de-sac Moms (16% of sample) Wal-Mart Women (18% of sample) • Have children • Live in the suburbs or medium sized towns • High school education or less • Household income below $50,000 Country Pride (27% of sample) • - Married • Live in small towns and rural areas • Either moderate or conservative on fiscal and social issues Values Voters (23% of sample) • Conservatives on social issues • Strongly Pro-Life

  31. For more information, please feel free to contact • Linda DiVall and Randall Gutermuth at: • American Viewpoint300 N Lee Street, #400Alexandria, VA 22314 • (703) 684-3325 / (800) 684-4410(703) 684-9295 fax • divall@amview.comrgutermuth@amview.com

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