Download
1 / 14
140 likes | 280 Views
Deriving Biomass Burning Emissions from GOES WildFire Products. P.I: Shobha Kondragunta NOAA/NESDIS/ORA Co-I: Chris Schmidt UW-Madison . NWS Air Quality Forecast Model Schematic. Emissions. Initial Conditions Boundary Conditions Meteorological Fields. Anthropogenic.
E N D
Deriving Biomass Burning Emissions from GOES WildFire Products P.I: Shobha Kondragunta NOAA/NESDIS/ORA Co-I: Chris Schmidt UW-Madison
NWS Air Quality Forecast Model Schematic Emissions Initial Conditions Boundary Conditions Meteorological Fields Anthropogenic Biogenic/Biomass Burning Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model Air Quality Forecast (O3, PM25,…)
Problem • PM25 emissions from biomass burning (forest fires) are currently not included in CMAQ simulations • This leads to uncertainties in PM25 forecasts during long range transport of forest fire smoke Long range transport of smoke (PM25) to US from forest fires in Canada during July 16-18, 2004
Satellite Observations vs CMAQ PredictionsJuly 20 2004 16Z Difference Histograms CMAQ model probably underestimating AOD fields due to absence of PM25 emissions from biomass burning
GASP-CMAQ ComparisonsJuly 20 2004 16Z Difference Histograms
Model AOD vs Model PM25 • Model internally consistent • Minimum threshold in CMAQ AOD
Satellite AOD vs Model PM25 No correlation between satellite observed AOD and Model predicted PM25 Most of the observed smoke not represented in the model
Solution: Incorporate PM25 emissions into CMAQ Approach 1: Scale emission climatologies with fire counts (e.g., GOCART model)
Red 10 ug/m3 Orange 1 ug/m3 Yellow 0.1 ug/m3 Green 0.01ug/m3 Solution: Incorporate PM25 emissions into CMAQ Approach 1: Scale emission climatologies with fire counts (e.g., GOCART model) Approach 2: Assume each fire point corresponds to 10 ha burning and emitting at a rate of 15 kg/ha/hr (e.g., HYSPLIT model)
Red 10 ug/m3 Orange 1 ug/m3 Yellow 0.1 ug/m3 Green 0.01ug/m3 Solution: Incorporate PM25 emissions into CMAQ Approach 1: Scale emission climatologies with fire counts (e.g., GOCART model) Approach 2: Assume each fire point corresponds to 10 ha burning and emitting at a rate of 15 kg/ha/hr (e.g., HYSPLIT model) Approach 3: Derive emissions using fire points, fuel load, and emission factors information E=BA X FL X FF X EF E = Emissions FF = Fuel Fraction BA = Burned area EF = Emissions Factors FL = Fuel Loading
Approach 3 (Schematic) Fire Counts (e.g., from GOES Weather Fuel moisture Vegetation Fuel type Emissions Factors Fuel Fraction Consumed Emissions Estimates Fuel loading Static CMAQ Dynamic Air Quality Forecast Model
Summary and Work Plan • Summary • CMAQ simulations during a known biomass burning event underestimate PM25 and AOD fields. This is due to the absence of smoke emissions in the model • Satellite-derived PM25 emissions in near real time will be developed to be incorporated into CMAQ • Work Plan • Collect existing static (fuel load, emission factors) data bases from USFS and other sources • Analyze and assess the databases • Derive emissions for a known fire episode (use GOES fire products and other satellite information for fuel moisture and so forth) • Conduct impact studies in collaboration with USFS and EPA • Transition technology to NWS
Acknowledgements • CMAQ runs (Pius Lee and Jeff McQueen) • GOES AOD product (Ana Prados) • GOES re-gridded AOD product (Chieko Kittaka) • HYSPLIT forecast map (Roland Draxler)
