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Teflas’ Grain Asia and International Pulses Forum. Mumbai. December 18, 2010

Teflas’ Grain Asia and International Pulses Forum. Mumbai. December 18, 2010. Overview of Pulses G. Chandrashekhar The Hindu Business Line. Pulses: Big numbers, small growth. India: world’s largest producer, importer and consumer of pulses

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Teflas’ Grain Asia and International Pulses Forum. Mumbai. December 18, 2010

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  1. Teflas’Grain Asia and International Pulses Forum. Mumbai. December 18, 2010 Overview of Pulses G. Chandrashekhar The Hindu Business Line

  2. Pulses: Big numbers, small growth • India: world’s largest producer, importer and consumer of pulses • Stagnant acreage; low yield; sluggish output growth; low per capita availability; skew in consumption; • Emerging nutrition security challenge

  3. What’s certain about Indian pulses? • D E M A N D • Rising incomes + low existing per capita usage + demographic pressure drive demand up • Incremental consumption growth potential 700,000 tons

  4. Rising rural incomes, price conscious consumers • Government policies advance rural income growth: higher MSP, NREGA, Welfare schemes, Infra spending, & subsidised PDS • Pulses demand is price elastic; high prices result in lower demand mainly among poor who actually need vegetable protein;

  5. Pulses Market Fundamentals • 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Output 14.8 14.6 14.7 Imports 2.8 2.5 3.5 Usage 17.6 17.1 18.2 Proj Demand 16.8 17.5 18.3 Population* 1138 1154 1170 Per capita+ 15.4 14.8 15.2 * in millions; + in kgs;

  6. Indian government defensive • Price situation worsened last 3 years; Government reaction? Export ban, suspension of futures trading, duty-free imports, increased role for state agencies (compensation for trading losses), subsidy for PDS supplies;

  7. Will situation improve? • No. Not anytime soon. Structural issues remain unaddressed; MSP alone cannot trigger sustained output growth; India needs non-price and non-trade initiatives to boost production & productivity • No +ve signal yet

  8. New challenges emerging • Land constraints; competition for acreage; water shortage (only 4 ml ha or 15% area irrigated); soil health; Global Warming / Climate Change • Lack of policy support for pulses (unlike fine cereals); • So, what does one infer?

  9. Inference • Indian demand conditions robust • Supply uncertainties persist • Demand-Supply gap set to widen in future, barring exceptional years like 2010-11 • Output projected at >16 ml.t. and demand > 19 ml.t.

  10. XI FYP Projection • Pulses Demand, Supply and Shortfall • 2010-112011-12 Output ml.t 15.5 16.1 Demand ml.t. 19.1 19.9 Shortfall ml.t 3.6 3.8

  11. Quo vadis? • Need to discipline /regulate PSUs in pulses business • Pulses procurement and supplies thro PDS critical • Ongoing research : promising new hybrid in pigeon pea; trials on insect resistant pigeon pea, chick pea (Bt);

  12. Thank You • G. Chandrashekhar The Hindu Business Line Kasturi Building, J. Tata Road Churchgate, Mumbai 400020 Phn: 91-22-22885593 – 22021099 email: gchandra@thehindu.co.in

  13. Pulses vs. other food products • Sudhakar TomarPulses industry size : 62 Million Tons • Value : US$ 100 Billion • Food-Feed-Protein-Agronomical benefits • Environment friendly-Ethical-Green

  14. United Colours of Pulses Pulses & Legumes - Food Shortage & Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar

  15. What kind of pulses are grown in the world ?

  16. Major Producers Pulses & Legumes - Food Shortage & Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar

  17. Major Importers Pulses & Legumes - Food Shortage & Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar

  18. Overall a diversified supply , demand and production base

  19. ..and where we live Pulses & Legumes - Food Shortage & Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar

  20. How to feed the next generations • Improve Yields by using High Yield Seeds • Manage Resources carefully • Save crops from Pests & Diseases • Make Agri-technology available to • the small and marginal farmers in • the third world • Increase Public & Private investment in Agriculture and R&D

  21. The good news is that Yes there are enough resources , awareness , resolve , extra land & water and seed technology to grow enough food

  22. But the bad news is that The this food will not be Cheap or affordable

  23. more bad news is that although there will be enough food but not enough money with poor people to buy .. so we have figure out smart solutions

  24. Smart solutions • Life style adjustments –for rich & poor • Eat /Promote smart Protein = Pulses & Legumes • Consume less (Food-Water-Energy) • Less wastage of resources • Raise awareness & Educate others • Push the policymakers to do the right thing

  25. A target of just 10% replacement of animal protein (Meat & Dairy) with vegetable protein (Pulses) will free up about 500 million MTs of food crop in the market ensuring adequate ECONOMICAL food supply to the world Pulses & Legumes - Food Shortage & Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar

  26. PULSES

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