Risk Management

1. Risk Management

2. RISK • RISK = the probabilityand severity of loss linked to hazards. • The probability of an undesirable outcome.

3. Hazard vs. Risk

4. HAZARD HAZARD = a condition that exists with the potential to cause injury, illness, or death of personnel; damage to or loss of equipment or property; or mission degradation.

6. RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ASSESSMENT = the identification and assessment of hazards.

7. RISK MANAGEMENT • RISK MANAGEMENT = A decision making process that uses risk analysis tools to make risk informed decisions for the complex choices we face. It’s making decisions that balance riskexposure with missionbenefits.

8. RISK vs GAIN or BENEFIT The amount of risk of an action weighed against the potential benefit.

9. Risk Decision The decision to accept, reject, or transferthe risk(s) associated with an action.

10. Three Levels of Risk Management • Strategic • 2. Deliberate • 3. Time Critical

11. Strategic • Done at 30,000 foot level • Identifies values at risk • Identifies Course of Action alternatives • Evaluates exposure, cost, and other factors among different alternatives • Course of Action chosen by agency administrator

12. SRA Template • Risk Assessment • Values at Risk • Probability of value being harmed • Consequences of harm • Potential benefits • 2. Risk Analysis • Comparison of Alternatives – exposure, cost • 3. Risk Communication • Who are the stakeholders? • Who needs to know? • 4. Risk Sharing • Engage internally and externally as appropriate • Share vertically and horizontally throughout the organization • Obtain understanding, acceptance, and support for the range of alternatives and likely decision

13. 5. Risk Decision • Document risk decision • Explain rationale • 6. Risk Monitoring • Revise as necessary due to changing conditions

16. Deliberate • A multi-step, analytical, sequential process • Linkage with strategic level - analysis of missions that come from the strategic risk assessment’s incident objectives • Generally will be performed at the IMT level as part of the planning process

17. THE SEVEN STEP PROCESS

18. Risk Management Process Feedback and record the hazard identification and assessment and risk mitigation An action is being considered Identify hazards/consequences and assess risks Define the level of probability Define the level of severity Define the level of risk Is the risk level acceptable? Take action and continue the operation YES NO Take action and continue the operation Can the risk be eliminated? YES NO Can the risk be mitigated? YES Take action and continue the operation Cancel the operation YES Can the residual risk be accepted? (if any) NO ICAO Safety Management Systems (SMS) Course

20. THE SEVEN STEP PROCESS

21. Risk Management 215A

22. ASSESS RISKS SEVERITY - What are the effects? PROBABILITY - Can this happen to us? EXPOSURE - What is the event frequency or degree of involvement?

23. Severity Severity Likelihood/Probability

24. Defining Probability and Severity Levels

25. Residual Risk The level of risk remaining after controls have been identified and selected.

26. Time Critical • Risk assessments done “on the fly” by firefighters at the ground level. • Deference to expertise. • Make risk decisions at the appropriate level. • Doctrinal approach.

29. Strategic Deliberate Time Critical Decision Space Data Time

30. STOP!

31. The risk is unacceptable under most conditions Intolerable region The risk is acceptable based on mitigation Tolerable region Acceptable region The risk is acceptable as it currently stands

32. Risk management is more than just an analytical process, it is a different way of communicating.

33. Risk Management Framework Risk Assessment Risk Analysis Risk Communication Risk Sharing Risk Decision Risk Monitoring

35. Questions?