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Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather Climatological Aspects

5 March 2003. National Weather Service State College PA. Introduction. Creating a Severe Weather DatabaseClimatic IssuesLocation, type, and Time if severe weather eventsLocal Pennsylvania problems/considerationsImproving the forecasting of severe weather eventsAn example. 5 March 2003. Nat

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Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather Climatological Aspects

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    1. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather Climatological Aspects by Kevin S. Lipton Richard H. Grumm and John LaCorte

    2. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA Introduction Creating a Severe Weather Database Climatic Issues Location, type, and Time if severe weather events Local Pennsylvania problems/considerations Improving the forecasting of severe weather events An example

    3. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA Methods and Data NCDC Storm Data Has some use issues Tornado gets counted by every county it impacts Inflates some numbers SPC Severe Plot Data Lowers tornado probabilities A cleaner data set Loaded into mySQL and MS-Access NCEP-NCDC Reanalysis Data Plot anomalies and show how case looked Apply to model forecasts for forecasting (GrADS)

    4. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA Creating a Severe Weather Database Prototype with Storm data to get top 20 events in eastern US Case examples to follow Severe Plot used for a parallel study Timing of events Location of events Seasonality of events The Severe Plot data was found to be more reliable

    5. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA Climatic Issues Pennsylvania problems/considerations Terrain may enhance bow echo climatology Focus on Pennsylvania Severe Weather Location, type (Severe and tornadic) Seasonality Diurnal trends

    6. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA Enhanced Bow echoes terrain influence

    7. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA 13 August 1999 Tuscarora valley SLBE SRM saw this bow before REF

    8. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA Seasonality

    9. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA Monthly Occurrences

    10. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA Diurnal Trend in Pennsylvania

    11. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA

    12. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA

    13. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA

    14. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA Climatic Examples Test Climatic Anomalies Top severe events Compare to severe weather occurrences Wind Anomalies Appear to have some forecast potential Relate to helicity Precipitable water Shear climatology This was only recently developed (Sep 2002) Has many potential forecast Applications Relates to helicity

    15. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA Events with most reports Eastern US 1/21/1999-1/22/1999: 129 Tornadoes, 14 other severe; MS, LA, AR 11/21/1992-11/23/1992: 84 Tornadoes, unknown severe; GA, AL, MS, LA 11/23/2001-11/24/2001: 76 Tornadoes, 31 Severe; AL, MS, LA, AR 5/31/1985: 60 Tornadoes, 30 Severe; OH, NY, PA 4/16/1998: 48 Tornadoes, 72 Severe; TN, KY, AR, AL 5/30/1998-5/31/1998: 43 Tornadoes, 300 Severe; NH, MA, NJ, NY, PA, VT, MI, MN 11/15/1989-11/16/1989: 32 Tornadoes, 3 Severe; NY, NJ, PA, GA, AL 7/12/1992: 30 Tornadoes, Unknown Severe; OH 4/14/1999 - 4/15/1999: 25 Tornadoes, 30 Severe; NC, SC, GA, AL, MS 5/18/2002: 22 Tornadoes, 80 Severe; IL 5/15/1998: 21 Tornadoes, 184 Severe; IA, MN 7/19/1996: 20 Tornadoes, Unknown Severe; MD, PA 4/28/2002: 22 Tornadoes, 137 Severe; KY, TN, MD 5/16/1999: 14 Tornadoes, 104 Severe; IA 5/10/2001: 13 Tornadoes, 104 Severe; IA 4/20/2000: 13 Tornadoes, 101 Severe; IL, KY, TN

    16. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA

    17. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA

    18. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA Integrating Data sets GrADS-reanalysis-Severe plot (SPC)

    19. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA Shear Examples Eastern US tornado Outbreak May 1985

    20. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA Shear Examples PA-NY tornado Outbreak May 1998

    21. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA Forecast Applications Use of ensembles Climatic anomalies Shear climatology verse model forecasts To anticipate a potentially large severe weather outbreak Example: 10-11 November 2002 Large shear anomalies High CAPE for November Largest severe weather outbreak of 2002

    22. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA The two big events of 2002 28 April Eastern US Severe outbreak LaPlata Tornado 10-11 November 2002 Severe outbreak F2 in Pennsylvania…rare in November

    23. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA 28 April 2002 severe reports

    24. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA Strong Shear Case LaPlata Tornado 28 April 2002

    25. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA 28 April 2002 anomalous low and southwest winds

    26. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA 28 April 2002 SREF CAPE Probabilities and spaghetti

    27. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA 28 April 2002 SREF CAPE Probabilities and spaghetti

    28. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA LaPlata Supercell complete with hook and TV

    29. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA Columbia County Tornado c Split in line depicts the F1 tornado location

    30. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA Lebanon County Tornado c Oh no..its a tornado near RT-22 in Ono!

    31. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA 10-11 November 2002 Severe outbreak Big in Mississippi Valley and east Strong southerly low-level flow High CAPE for November Not uncommon as some big November events like 4 November 1950 Strong shear Rare strong tornado in western Pennsylvania in November

    32. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA

    33. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA Shear Forecasts with Anomalies Eta Model

    34. 5 March 2003 National Weather Service State College PA Conclusions Built a regional Severe Weather Database Addressed many Climatic Issues Location, type, and Time if severe weather events Local Pennsylvania problems/considerations Climatic Anomalies show great forecast potential when applied to model and ensemble forecasts New tools to integrate Data sets

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