Navigating the Badlands: Thriving in Turbulent Times

1. Navigating the Badlands: Thriving in Turbulent Times Eight Global Trends Shaping Your FutureHuman Resources Planning SocietyFebruary 06, 2007New Jersey Mary O’Hara-Devereaux, Ph.D

2. The future is already here, it is just not evenly distributed.

3. New Identity The Badlands: Transition Zone Between Eras Historical cycle of disruptive innovation – 75 years long Social Innovations Economic Shifts New Technologies You Are Here Great Industrial Plains BADLANDS 2025 Foothills of the Future 1950 2000

6. Beware of conventional wisdom for it is nearly always wrong

7. Conventional Wisdom • Confucian cultures can’t innovate only imitate • Jobs always come back after a recession • Women are not genetically as good at science and technology • Higher education guarantees a good job • United States is a safe haven for other countries money for the foreseeable future.

9. Eight Trends Shaping the Future

10. #1-Trend Rapidly increasing numbers of healthy older people

12. World Population Aged 60 and Over1950–2050 Source: United Nations Population Division, The Sex and Age Distribution of the World Populations (the 1994 revision).

13. 50-59 years 60-74 years 75 years and over Staying Healthy Longer Activity Limited by Long-Standing Illness By Age, Sex and Occupational Class, % Men Professional and managerial Intermediate Routine and manual Women Professional and managerial Intermediate Routine and manual

14. The Second Middle Age: Global Boomers Lead the Journey of Their Lifetime

15. Cycling • Renewal • Chapters • Transitions • Learning • Vital aging • Inside-out Key words: Transition Generation 2005 Adulthood Early Adulthood Childhood 1st Middle Age 2nd Middle Age Elderhood 100 90 80 70 Begin again – mentors/full life 60 Create a legacy 50 Begin again – new identity, new careers 40 Interdependent * 30 Individuation 20 Making it 10 Mid-lifecrisis Staking out adult world

16. Self-managing continuous • Change • Intimacy • Balance • Creativity • Resilience Key words: Future View 2025 First Half Second Half Childhood Adulthood Middle Age Early Adulthood Elderhood Centenarians * 100 90 Mid-lifecrisis 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

17. #1 Strategic Imperative Think and Act Differently About So-Called Older Workers

18. Implications for Human Resource Leaders • Lots of ‘so-called’ older workers- • Boomers set new hybrid retirement patterns • Big drivers of new work arrangements between workers and employers impacting all generations • ‘Second Middle Age’ women will pursue new careers and experiment with new roles • Older women workers will become preferred workers in the long term future

19. #2 Trend Re-invention of womanhood.

20. Women Break Free And Cut a New Path #2

22. First Women Went to Work…. Trends in U.S.Women’s Labor Force Participation, Ages 25-59, 1969-2003 Source: Public Policy Institute of California, Just the Facts – Economic Status of Women in California, 2004

23. Women Men …Then they went to school. Today, More Women Graduate from College than Men Tertiary Graduation Rates, 2005 Australia Czech Republic Finland France Germany Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Republic of Korea Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Poland Spain Sweden Turkey United Kingdom United States

24. A Big U.S Trend Unfolding Since 1970… • 56% of college students are women • 50% of Latinos and African American College students are women • About 80% of valedictorians are females • Women poised to outperform men in graduate education • What’s up with men?

25. The Education Gap Between Women and Men Continues to Grow 1990-91 through 2015-16- Bachelor’s Degrees, by Sex of Recipient Source: www.nces.ed.gov

26. Gap Grows at Master’s Level 1990-91 through2015-16-Master’s Degrees, by Sex of Recipient Source: www.nces.ed.gov

27. Women Lead Innovations in Top 10 U.S Companies Amy Radin Chief Innovation Officer Citibank Claudia Kotchka VP, Design Innovation & Strategy Procter & Gamble Ivy Ross EVP Product Design & Development Old Navy Marissa Mayer VP, Search Products & User Experience Google

28. Today 50% of Women Over 50 years of age in California are single.

29. 198020002010 ..This drove a decrease in traditional households Percentage of Total Households That Include a Married Couple With Children Source: Global Foresight statistical abstracts of France, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

30. Women’s New Choices areTransforming Everyone’s Life • A global trend & social revolution • Women are choosing new lifestyles all along the lifecycle • Marriage is being challenged • Alternative households increasing in share • One-person households rising • Broader acceptance of varying lifestyles • Household boundaries are extended through technology and become communication zones and refueling stations Source: Institute for the Future

31. The Science is in….Biological Differences Between Men and Women’s Brains • What stimulates them and what gives them pleasure are polar opposites • Women use 20,000 words a day Men 7,000 • Women have an 8 lane freeway for processing emotion, men a country road • Men like to conquer and control things—and destroy them if they can’t…, • Women try to make things work with what they have

32. One biological difference persists-Women continue to outlive men Centenarians in the United States-1995-2010, Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. Population Projections of the United States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995–2050. Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1130. Washington, DC.

33. Forecast:The Future Is Female • Women will continue to live longer and healthier • Create a stunning ‘Second Middle Age’ • Rapid growth of experienced, educated women-historic numbers-a global phenomena • The majority of educated women will choose new lifestyles; their choices re-define marriage, households and work • Women will make more purchasing decisions • Most U.S. women over 50 will be single by 2030

34. The Future is Female-cont. • Women and men will have an increasing education gap at the higher ed. Level • Most new entrants to workforce will be women and people of color in the U.S. • Many more traditional male careers will be dominated by women • Second Middle Age women will become preferred workers in the near future • Growth of Women Owned Businesses will rise dramatically

35. Strategic Imperative #2 Learn About the New Identity of Women and its Impacts

36. Implications for Human Resources Leaders • Design women friendly workplaces and organizations at all levels through to the boardroom or watch them leave in droves • Enlightened companies will have a strong women oriented succession plans • Create evidenced based strategies to attract young women as employees and workers • Learn about women owned businesses and their cultures-many of your suppliers and customers will be women owned companies

37. #3 Trend Rise of Toxic Leaders

39. Today’s Landscape of Fearful People and Leaders • Badland’s uncertainty and challenges are deeply unsettling to people • Revert to primary identities • Religion • Family • Culture

40. Toxic Leaders Rise to Power • Increase in the Badlands • Lead by illusion not vision • The Allure-promise of safety- “stick with me”—I will take care of you • Leave us worse off than before • Mismatched to the issues and needs • Fearful people collude with toxic leaders to keep them in place

41. Forecast # 3-More Toxic Leaders • We’re not done yet… • Uncertain when the new leaders will emerge and prevail WHO WILL THEY BE? • Likely sources are women and Gen Y • It has to be a hero’s journey

42. #3-Strategic Imperative Invest in Finding and Growing the New Leaders

43. Implications Human Resource Leaders • Use the turbulence as a crucible for honing the leadership edge • Innovate in leadership programs-create new leadership readiness for different people • Focus on women, young people and people of color that unleashes their courage and talent to rise to highest leadership positions • New leaders must be revolutionaries to overcome the power of ‘Toxic Leaders’

44. #4 Trend Rapid global growth of the ‘networked economy’

46. Productivity Creates Wealth Not Jobs Job Gains 51 Months After Recession Starts 0.6% Source: CCSE – California County Projections 2005

47. A Level Playing Field Drives Growth of SME’s

48. Forecast # 3-Insatiable Innovation Imperative • Creative destruction means continuous innovation • An increase in job burn and job churn • More ‘temporariness’ of organizations and jobs-’velcro’ relationships • Getting the right people over and over and over again • New forms of knowledge worker organizing arises

49. #4- Strategic Imperative Design climates and contexts that support serial innovation

50. Barriers to Innovation Remain High (Percent Saying “Yes”) Difficult to Get Resources Failure Not Well Accepted Time for Informal Conversations Too Busy With Routine Work Access to Information Source: Global Foresight, Innovation Study, 2005.