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Fitch. February 25, 2004. Update on NU Earnings. EPS. 2003. 2002. 2002. 2003. EPS Excluding Significant Items. Reported EPS. What Were the Significant Items?. 2002 $0.19/share gains related to Seabrook $ 0.09/share of investment write-offs 2003
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Fitch February 25, 2004
Update on NU Earnings EPS 2003 2002 2002 2003 EPS Excluding Significant Items Reported EPS
What Were the Significant Items? • 2002 • $0.19/share gains related to Seabrook • $0.09/share of investment write-offs • 2003 • $0.28/share reserve on wholesale power dispute • $0.04/share negative accounting change
2004 Earnings Guidance Earnings Per Share Regulated Businesses $1.08 - $1.20 Competitive Businesses $0.22 - $0.30 Parent Expense ($0.10) Consolidated NU $1.20 - $1.40
2003 Improvements Were Driven by Competitive Business Results Earnings in Millions Yankee Gas NUEI Services PSNH/ NAEC WMECO NUEI Merchant Energy** CL&P* * Excluding LMP reserve ** Excluding LMP reserve, NUEI parent expense
What Has Created 2003 Success? NU Enterprises’ 2003 success has been driven in large part by changes in the way in which we do business • Improved portfolio management • Resized retail organization • Improved realized retail margins • Refocused trading as a wholesale support function significantly reducing risk Other factors include: • Improved rainfall levels impacting hydroelectric output • Improved results from generation assets
2004 NUEI Net Income Preview Total Projected 2004 Net Income $28-$38 Million $4 - $7 million $24 - $31 million Merchant Energy Energy/Generation Services
(In Millions) 9/30/03 ------------------------------------ ------------------------------------- Common Preferred Debt RRBs NU Consolidated* $2,265 45.0% $116 2.3% $2,651 52.7% $1,730 CL&P $724 43.4% $116 6.9% $830 49.7% $1,154 PSNH $345 42.8% $0 0% $461 57.2% $484 WMECO $154 44.9% $0 0% $189 55.1% $135 Yankee Gas $217 ** 47.5% $0 0% $240 52.5% $0 NGC $445 52.5% $0 0% $403 47.5% $0 Strong Current Capitalization Ratios Provide Solid Foundation for Growth * NU only updated through 12/31/03 **Excludes equity associated with goodwill.
Cash Flows Have Supported Common Dividend Increases Dividends/Share
Overall Strategy - How the Puzzle Fits Together Regulated Businesses Competitive Businesses • Continue to implement best practices among four regulated operating companies • Build needed transmission facilities to remedy critical SW Connecticut supply situation • Expand CT natural gas infrastructure • Timely recovery of purchased energy costs • Maintain strong balance sheet • Achieve targeted returns on investments by maintaining gross margins • Manage risk effectively • Build services businesses
NU Forecasting Significant Regulated Capital Investment Program $ Millions - Excluding AFUDC
Distribution Systems Require Increased Investment $ Millions Distribution Rate Base (Electric and Gas)
2007 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 Bethel to Norwalk • 7/03: Siting Council decision • 12/03: Norwalk Substation expansion began • 6/04: 115kV & 345kV underground construction begins • 8/04: Gas-Insulated Substation starts • 12/04: Overhead line orders under contract $200 M Middletown to Norwalk $496 M * • 5/03: Municipal consultation • 10/03: Siting Council application filed • 12/03 – 2/04: Public hearings process • 3/04 – 4/04: Adjudicative hearings (estimated) • 6/04: DEP filing (estimated) • 10/04: Siting Council decision Siting Process Construction Transmission Business: Major Capital Projects Capital Program $26 M $55 M $99 M $270 M $240 M $200 M $200 M $200 M * NU’s 80% share
CL&P Regulatory Update • Average TSO rate of 10.76 cents/kwh within legislative cap • Generation rate rose to 5.744 cents/kwh • Distribution rate set at 2.49 cents/kwh in 2004 • Result of 12/17/03 rate case decision net of $30 million /year refund of 0.5-mill procurement fee • Annual increases after refunds of $25 million in 2005; $12 million in 2006; $7 million in 2007 • $5 million after-tax write-off in 4Q03; reconsideration granted • Transmission rate set at 0.467 cents/kwh • $28.4 million annual increase • Federally mandated congestion costs of 0.62 cents/kwh • CTA and SBC charges total 0.948 cents/kwh • Mostly covers rate reduction bond interest and principal • Reflects $35 million a year in refunds • CL&P also will benefit from 0.5-mill procurement fee
PSNH Update – Current Items • 5/30/03: PSNH bought out 14 small QF hydro rate orders for $20 million; net savings of $5 million • 8/28/03: PSNH proposed $70 million conversion of Schiller unit to burn wood chips • NHPUC decision disappointing; CT, MA certified as renewable • 9/12/03: PSNH applied to NHPUC to raise its transition service energy rate • Year End: PSNH closed on CVEC acquisition • $9 million for assets; $21 million to buy down power contract • Year End: PSNH filed rate case requesting 2.6% ($21 million) increase • Hearings in early August • Decision will be retroactive to 2/1/04 • 2/1/04: Energy supply rate rose to 5.36 cents/kwh from 4.6–4.67 cents
Yankee Gas Financial Update: Disappointing 2003 • $3.9 milion in 4Q03 vs. $11.4 million in 4Q02 • Lower sales $(2.3) million • Higher O&M $(2.4) million • 2002 tax benefit $(1.2) million • Higher depreciation $(0.2) million • $7.3 million in 2003 vs. $17.6 million in 2002 • Adjustment to unbilled revenues $(6.2) million • Higher pension costs $(1.8) million • Higher non pension O&M $(5.3) million • Offset by higher sales $3.8 million
Summary • 2004 earnings range consistent within street consensus • Plans for transmission build-out progressing • New Connecticut legislation signed and regulatory implementation under way • Recovery of competitive businesses on track • Financial profile remains strong