Effect of development on land management

1. Effect of development on land management A literature comparison Margaret Hamilton Econ 539 March 11, 2009

2. population density and timber management Wear, Liu, Foreman, and Sheffield Examine how expanding populations in western Virginia may influence the management of forests in 1999. Munn, Barlow, Evans, and Cleaves Examine how the frequency of timber harvesting is influenced by urbanization in Mississippi and Alabama in 2002. Kline, Azuma & Alig Examine how population growth in western and eastern Oregon affects land management activities in 2004 and 2007.

3. similar logit models different variables Wear et al. used: POP + SITE-INDEX + SLOPE +ACCESS-EASY + ACCESS-HARD To describe the comparative advantage for commercial forestry.

4. similar logit models different variables. Munn et al. used: HARVEST-HISTORY, SLOPE, TYPE(PINE, HDWD, MIXED, OPEN), SITE-INDEX, INVENTORY, SIZEFOREST, ROAD, DISTANCE-URBAN, DIST2, POPDEN, INCOME, OWNERSHIP (NF, PUB, NIPF). Adding socioeconomic factors to describe evidence of harvesting.

5. similar logit models different variables. Kline et al. used: BASAL AREAt, BASAL AREAt-1, SITE INDEX, SLOPE, ROAD DISTANCE, HARDWOOD, NIPF, BUILDING DENSITYt , BUILDING DENSITYt-1. To test evidence of stocking, harvest, precommercial thinning and post-harvest planting.

6. Relationships: Wear et al. looked for relationship between: population density and commercial forestry Using Census and expert opinion Found statistical significance Population reduces timberland area and growing stock volumes by roughly 40% from their measured values.

7. Munn et al. looked for relationships between: population density and: • Proximity to cities • Contiguous forest area • Harvesting Using Census and Forest Service data They found all were statistically significant and concluded that changes at the urban-rural interface may have important influence on the future timber supply.

8. Kline et al. looked for relationships between building density and: • Stocking • Harvesting • Pre-commercial thinning • Post-harvest planting using Forest Service data • Found statistical significance in: stocking, thinning and planting in western Oregon. But concluded: magnitude of significance may not warrant strong conclusions. • Kline et al. say the results may be statistically significant, but the magnitude is small.

9. Reasons for different findings: • Studies conducted in different regions: • Virginia • Alabama/Mississippi • Western and eastern Oregon. • Population was represented with diffnt data: • Census data was used by Wear et al. and Munn et al. • Building density data was used by Kline et al. • Dependent variables differed among studies: • Each study was looking for different evidence of forest management.

10. conclusions • Wear et al. concluded that concurrent impacts on both timber demand and supply could result in increasing market scarcity and continued upward pressure on timber prices. • Munn et al. concluded that changes at the urban-rural interface may have important influence on the future timber supply. • Kline et al. agreed there is potential for less forestry investment on private forestlands due to: economies of scale in timber production, and change in forest owner characteristics and objectives. Policy implications: as the U.S. Forest Service attempts to provide continuous supply of timber and other land uses, it will need to consider potential decreases in timber supply from development and new management activities of new owners.

11. References • Kline, J. D.; Azuma, D. L. 2007. Evaluating forest land development effects on private forestry in eastern Oregon. Res. Pap. PNW-RP-572. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 18 p. • Kline, J. D.; Azuma, D. L.; Alig, R. J. 2004. Population growth, urban expansion, and private forestry in western Oregon. Forest Science 50(1) p. 33-43. • Munn, I. A.; Barlow, S. A.; Evans, D. L.; and Cleaves, D. 2002. Urbanization's impact on timber harvesting in the south central United States. Journal of Environmental Management 64, 65-76. • Wear, D. N.; Liu, R.; Foreman, J. M.; Sheffield, R. M. 1999. The effects of population growth on timber management and inventories in Virginia. Forest Ecology and Management 118: 107-115.