MANHAZ

1. MANHAZ -       Situation in Poland after accession to European Union A. Strupczewski Institute of Atomic Energy A.Strupczewski@cyf.gov.pl

2. Plan of the lecture • Polish power industry – structure, and energy intensity • Health data for Poland • Pollution of air in Poland – improvements over the years • Forest damages in Poland • Life increase possible with cleaner air • External costs for Poland • Effects of accession to EU • Management of electricity consumption • But more electricity needed – what should be the source? • Resistance to new technologies in the past • Opponents to nuclear power – honest and …dishonest • What will be the future?

3. Polish power industry Power installed in Poland in 2002: 35 GWe, The peak demand is up to ca. 24 GW. Nevertheless the rotating reserve is not too big, because about 9 GW are the units explored over 30 years, to be retired. Since October 15th 1995, after long time tests, the Polish system has been separated from the Russian one, and connected to the West European one (at that time UNIPEDE). It confirmed, that the Polish system reached the medium EU level. Currently the Polish system • supplies ca. 15 million consumers • fully covers the demand of the country, • exports about 4 TWh to the neighbour countries (Czech Republic, Germany, Sweden).

4. Polish power industry structure Commercial thermal power plants 30.1 Gwe, • hard coal 20.5 GWe, • lignite 9.25 GWe, • hydro 2.2 Gwe Energy consumption factor was decreased in the period 1990-1997 from 2 to 1.2 toe, but it is still twice higher than in other OECD countries. The targets for the Polish economy require to reduce this indicator further, so as to decrease it in comparison to 2000 by 25% in 2010 and by 50% in 2020 [Sadowski 01].

5. Energy intensity in Poland, 1960-2000 GDP is expressed either according to the exchange rate of the local currency (GDPexch) or using the puchasing power parity “ppp” (GDPppp) [Jaczewski 03]

6. Decrease of electricity intensity in Poland, 1992-2001 Figure 1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP - fixed price), electricity consumption (Ec) and electricity intensity (Ei) 1990 - 2001 in Poland (1990 = 100%) [ Pasierb 03]

7. Electricity per capita consumption in selected European countries

8. Environmental protection In Poland for over 10 years an intensive proecological policy is realised. From 1990 to 1998 the consumption of water by the industry was reduced by over 20%, and the amount of polluted water by 68%. • For several years the emission of air pollution is consequently reduced. The emission of SO2 was reduced by 46%, and NOx by27%. Poland fullfils the obligation for the year 2000. The important limitation for the power generation for a system generating about 90% of electricity in coal fired plants are the limits for GHG (Green House Gases) – namely CO2, CH4 and NOx.

9. Substance Exposure time Poland1 EU2) WHO3) NO2 1 h 1 year 200 40 200 40 200 40 SO2 1 h 24 day 1 year 350 125 - 350 125 20 500 125 50 PM10 1 day 1 year (after 2005) 1 year (after 2010) 50 40 20 50 40 20 - 4) - - Limit values of air pollution averaged over exposure period (g/m3) 1)1) Proposal of the Minister of Environment of Poland, 23 .04.2001. 2) Council Directive 1999/30/EC of 22.04.1999. Both for 1) and 2) Limit vales for SO2will be in force since 2005, for NO2since 2010, and for PM gradually since 2005 and 2010 . 3) WHO recommendations, not legally obligatory

10. Year 1995 2000 2001 2002 Generation*, 103 GWh, 126.8 133.8 133.6 132.3 Consumption, total, 103 GWh 143 148 150 148.6 SO2103 tons 1223 805 769 NOx103 tons 377 237 242 Particulates 103tons 193 64 58 CO2, mln tons, all sources 317 Methane, CO2 equiv. mln t 1.8 Emissions and electricity generation in Poland *in thermal power plants Electricity consumption per capita : average for the world 2514 kWh/year, average for Poland 3768 kWh/year.

11. The achievements of Polish power industry in reduction of air pollutant emissions are visible

12. Emission factors, Polish power plants [Pinko 01] *Total emissions- for the whole fuel cycle, not only for power plants

13. Health data for Poland • The characteristic feature of air pollution in Poland is burning of large quantities of coal in domestic stoves for heating and cooling purposes. About 1/3 of all living houses in villages and small towns is heated by individual stoves burning wood or coal without any installations to clean flue gases or filters to catch emitted particles. • Every year more than 12 million tonnes of coal are burned this way, without any filters and equipment for air pollution reduction. [Hlawiczka 1994]. • That is a value exceeding significantly the indicators of coal burning for domestic purposes in developed countries. • The emissions involved are much more dangerous to human health than the emissions from power plants.

14. Health data for Poland The average concentrations of fine particulates due to coal burning in houses in developed countries are from 1.5 to 2 times higher than the concentrations outside the house and reach from 80 to 100 g/m3, and in developing countries they are from 250 to 400 g/m3 [Smith 96]. The indicator of hazards due to breathing the particulates, SO2 and NOx produced by coal burning in house stoves with smoke removal through the chimney is 1000 times higher than the indicator of health damage in the case of a power plant. [Smith 93]. The indicators of heavy metal emissions are from 10 to 15 times higher than in the case of power plants [Hlawiczka 94]. To improve the health status in Poland the combustion of coal in domestic stoves should be reduced and replaced by development of combined heating generating plants.

15. Pollution of air in Poland • In Poland the effects of air pollution were especially visible in Silesia. E.g. in the end of 70-ies in Walbrzych the amount of solar light reaching the ground surface was 40% lower than in other regions of Poland and the average life expectancy there was shorter by 6 years than the average for the country, although otherwise the material situation of Walbrzych inhabitants was much better than the average in Poland [PAN 78]. • Activities undertaken by power industry to reduce emissions have resulted in significant improvement of the situation. Today catastrophic air pollution episodes do not occur, and modern flue gas cleaning techniques reduce emissions during normal power plant operation. • However, even after a significant reduction of emissions and installation of high stacks ensuring better dissemination of pollutants the amounts of SO2, NOx and dust emitted from power plants are still considerable.

16. Particulate concentration in Katowice voivodship in years 1980-1999 [Radomski 01]. Over the last 20 years the average value of concentration of particulates in the air was decreased from 265 to about 75 μg/m3.

17. Maximum and minimum particulate pollution values of concentration in atmosphere in Katowice voivodship in the period 1980-1999 [Radomski 01].

18. Damage degree Total slight moderate severe % 60.8 50.8 9.7 0.3 Share of areas damaged by industrial emissions in total forest area in Poland, 2003 Threshold of conifer tree damages – 30 μg of SO2 /m3 Average concentrations higher, Limit value according to: WHO recommendations 50 μg of SO2 /m3 Proposed EU standard 20 μg of SO2 /m3

19. Life shortening vs pollution Considering historical changes of emission of pollutants to the atmosphere in the US a modified weighted value mortality coefficient for atmosphere pollution was proposed (corresponding to multiplication of mortality coefficients by 0.85 [Leksell, Rabl, 2000]. Results: at exposure of 1000 people over 1 year to additional pollution of PM10 equal to 1 g/m3the summary life shortening of the group of these people will be 0,592 YOLL. This is the value nearly the same as was used in ExternE 98. If the EU countries could reduce the average air pollution in PM 2,5 by 10 g/m3 for a lifetime of 75years, then the average expected lifetime for an inhabitant of Europe would be increased by 0,592 x 10x 75 = 0,44 YOLL,that is by half a year. [Leksell, Rabl, 2000]

20. And what are the hazards connected with electricity generation in Poland? Katowice: the exposure to SO2 and PM10 results in increased mortality due to cardiovascular illnesses by 10% andi 4% [Zejda, 1998]. Katowice: high frequency of COPD in children, about 50% higher than in children living in the same town but outside the studied area [Zejda, 1996]. High level of air pollution in highly industrialized region of Silesia is connected with an increase risk of cancer incidence. Among the most cancerogenic and mutagenic substances are polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), produced mostly in the process of coal combustion. The exposure to polluted air is connected with significant increases of carcinogenic addicts DNA [Perera et al, 1992]. Retrospective clinic-control study of lung cancer mortality among masculine population of Cracow showed a relationship between an increased indicator of relative cancer risk (1.4, confidence range 95% 1.08 – 2.01) with air pollution, independently from smoking and occupational hazards [Jędrychowski et al. 1990].

21. Reductions of pollutant emissions According to the protocol of Goeteborg 1999, Poland should reduce its total emissions in 2010 to (value of 1990 emission in mln t/year shown in brackets) • SO2 1397 (3 210) • NO2 879 (1280) • NH4 468 (508) • Volatile Organic Compounds 800 (831) [Jaworski 01] • The fraction of ecosystems with critical loads exceeded due to acidification should be reduced from 72.9% in 1990 to 4.5 % in 2010, and due to eutrophication from 97.3 % in 1990 to 88.5% in 2010. [Cofala 01].

22. Costs of CO2 emission reductions EU has taken obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 8% in the period of 2008-2012. The limits of emissions for various economy branches have been proposed assuming most effective emission control, namely the cost of CO2 reduction equal to 20 EUR/t. According to this most cost effective scenario the power industry should reduce its emissions by 13%, instead of 6% which would follow from an equal division of reductions. This cost effective division makes it possible to reduce the overall cost of CO2 emission reduction to 3.7 bln EURO, while at equal reduction they would be 20.5 bln EURO.

23. External costs for Poland • In the previous estimates developed in 2001 the cost of human life for Poland was calculated considering the difference in Gross National Product (GNP) between EU and Poland. This resulted in the VSL reduction factor for Poland equal to 0.72. Since then, Poland has become a EU country, so it should now apply EU values of VSL and YOLL. Recently EU decreased these values compared to the estimates of 1998 previously used. Now they are approximately • VSL = 1 million EURO • 1 YOLL at acute exposure = 75,000 EURO • 1 YOLL at chronic exposure = 50,000 EURO

24. External costs for Poland If the dose-effect functions remained the same as in 1998, the reduced values of VSL would yield the cost of emission of air pollutants in Polish conditions corrected in comparison with the values obtained in [Strupczewski 01] as shown in the table below

25. Effects of accession to the European Union It is expected, that the accession to EU will result increase of energy demand and electricity in particular at least to 2020. The electricity per capita consumption will probably reach some 6 MWh/c, what needs increased generation up to some 240 TWh/a. It is estimated, that some 14 GW new capacity will be needed, taking into account, that some 5 GW from existing obsolete capacity must be replaced by new units. Similar experience can be seen in countries which accessed to EU some years ago (e.g. Spain).

26. Polish power industry development till 2020 Two variants were considered: low and high energy needs. It was assumed that the electricity consumption per inhabitant should increase, since currently it is twice lower than in Western Europe countries and even lover than in Czech Republic or Hungary. As the number of Poles in 2020 was forecast to be 40 mln, the unit netto consumption per capita was obtained equal to 4100 kWh/year in the variant „LOW“ and 4775 kWh/year in the variant „HIGH“ [Marecki 01]. This corresponds to the electricity needs in 2020 equal to LOW : 227 TWh/year, 50 % increase relative to current situation HIGH: 264 TWh/year, 86´5% increase.

27. Kyoto obligations Polish power industry should reduce CO2 emissions from 160 mln tons of CO2 in 1988 to 150 mln tonnes in 2012. This requirement can be satisfied in case of electricity consumption needs called „HIGH“ by Transition from coal to natural gas and building NPPs in the period from 2012 till 2020 In he case of „LOW“ it is more difficult. Slower development of gas power plants and delay of nuclear power development beyond 2020 would satisfy Kyoto requirements only until 2010. After that the return to coal would be needed and the emissions would grow above the limits [Marecki 001.

28. Influence of EU directives for Poland The power generating industry is emitting about 55% of SO2 and is regarded as one of the most important pollutant. The EU Directive no 2001/81/UE (of 23.10.2001) is requiring to limit the SO2 emission below 400 mg/m3 in flue gases. This requirement is at present fulfilled only in 25% of Polish power plants. The needed desulphurisation installations for power stations of 20 000 MW installed capacity would cost probably about $ 8 billion. Therefore the the reduction of polluting emissions is at present one of the most important points of the already undertaken modernisation programmes.

29. Management of electricity consumption Figure 2 Sold production, electricity consumption and electricity intensity by manufacturing in 1994 - 2001 in Poland [Pasierb 03]

30. The Polish Energy Efficient Motors Programme (PEMP) Electric motor systems (which include motors, drives, pumps, fans, and control equipment) use 40 to 50% of all electricity consumed in Poland. The most significant application for electric motor systems (60% of electric energy consumption) is for raising pressure and pumping liquids and gases through pumps, fans, compressors, etc. in three industrial sectors: the manufacturing sector; the energy sector (gas, heat, and water supply); and the mining industry. The technical potential* for electricity savings of electric motor systems in these applications in these sectors is 3.9 TWh/year. The remaining 40% of electricity consumption by electric motor systems is used by freight and passenger transport and for materials processing. Total technical potential for savings is estimated at 6.3 TWh/year (5.1% of overall electric energy consumption of 122.8 TWh in Poland)[Pasierb]. *The potential available when applying the BAT available on the world market

31. Figure 5 Potential of electricity saving in industrial drives (1999) [Pasierb 03]

32. But even with energy savings, we shall need more electricity – shall we use nuclear too? Nuclear power has been shown to be competitive – Finland has proved it recently and is building an new NPP. Nuclear power provides the lowest external costs Nuclear power assures energy stability and independance The missing link is the public acceptance…but is it missing? Public acceptance is judged by the negative attitude of mass media, looking for sensation according to the principle „good news is no news“… But the public poll results show a different picture To forecast the future let us look at some historical examples of human resistance to new technologies and their results.

33. Resistance to new technologies in the past

34. Resistance to new technologies in the past

35. Protests have always been raised against new technologies – even against canalization – see a Polish book of 1900… Cytaty „System kanalizacyjny potępili jednozgodnie najwięksi myśliciele, mężowie stanu, ekonomiści i badacze natury zalecając miastom wywózkę nieczystości kloacznych wyłącznie na pola wiejskie, jako jedyną rękojmię trwałego dobrobytu ludzkości ( str 20) „Dowodzić szkodliwości nawozów organicznych dla zdrowia ludzkiego lub nieekonomiczności dla kraju strzech słomianych, prowokować zniszczenie odpadków miejskich za pomocą kanalizacyi, znaczyłoby sprzeciwiać się odwiecznym prawom natury i zdobyczom nauki, pokuszać się na obalenie kultury rolniczej i postępu ludzkości.” „...zmieniłoby to ostatecznie pola orne w chude pastwiska, a nawet w piaski lotne i zgotowało rolnikom nędzę, a ostatecznie głód, choroby i przyspieszyłoby emigrację ludności wiejskiej z siedzib ojczystych...(str 12) Kanały warszawskie ... zubożyły ludność wiejską i miejską, napełniły krzywdą społeczeństwa kieszenie kulturnika ... Lindleja i jego szajki... dzisiaj z powodzeniem operujących po miastach sarmackich pod firmą dobrze opłacanych inżynierów kanalizacyjno-wodociągowych ... (str 17) KANALIZACYA MIASTA WARSZAWY JAKO NARZędzie Judaizmu i szarlataneryi W celu Zniszczenia rolnictwa polskiego Oraz Wytępienia ludności słowiańskiej nad wisłą Napisał f.r. rolnik nadwiślański Kraków Skład w księgarni G. Gebethnera i spółki 1900

36. The resistance to new technologies did have reasons For example, the protests against canalisation of big cities were partly justified – the releases of liquid waste to the rivers did pollute the river waters. However, canalisation was necessary, and the progress of waste cleaning stations over the XX century resulted in removing the pollution involved. Today we cannot imagine our life in any big city without canalisation – although we can understand the initial protests. So any honest opponent is welcome - and treated with full respect. However, some opponents are not honest at all…

37. Opponents to nuclear power The opponents to nuclear power voiced justified concerns – and contributed to the awareness of the necessity of nuclear safety progress in the nuclear community Their concerns are appreciated and nclear community has made many successful efforts to increase its safety and reduce radiation hazards. But some opponents used half truths – like dr Sternglass…see the next slide Or simply lied, multipying the chosen numbers by thousands and millions, like Mr. Jaskowski … see the following slide And the protests or clarifications of most competent halth authorities could not undo the damage done by those lies.

38. Disputes about nuclear power - does infant mortality rise near NPPs? Infant mortality near Indian Point NPP. Sternglass data and full data. a) Points shown in the original Sternglass statement, b) Statistical errors added, c) Other years added, d) Actual gas releases from Indian Point NPP

39. Do NPPs emit in normal operation the radioactivity similar as 100 atomic bombs …? Polskie Towarzystwo fizyki medycznej Zarząd Główny - Executive Board Warszawa, 24.04.1990 Oświadczenie Zarządu Głównego PTFM ...Rozpowszechnianie fałszywych i tendencyjnych informacji ...stwarza warunki dla szerzenia nieuzasadnionej psychozy strachu, irracjonalnych i szkodliwych zachowań jednostkowych... Załącznik...zawiera 10 najbardziej charakterystycznych poglądów dr Jaśkowskiego ..stanowią one dowód braku kompetencji i rzetelności naukowej ich autora. Zarząd Główny PTFM oświadcza, że całkowicie dystansuje się od poglądów głoszonych przez dr . J. Jaśkowskiego 1 "Ilość radionuklidów, uwalnianych podczas bezawaryjnej pracy elektrowni jądrowej w ciągu jednego roku stanowi wartość porównywalną z 100 bombami, zrzuconymi na Hiroszimę (J. Jaśkowski, "Orientacje" 1988, s 85) Są to wartości zafałszowane in plus ok. 100-1000 milionów razy

40. Does nuclear power double the frequency of cancer death ? 2. Liczba dodatkowych zgonów w Hiroszimie i Nagasaki w wyniku uszkodzeń popromiennych wyniosła 150 000 "(J.Jaśkowski, "Polityka" nr. 11/89, "Przegląd Techniczny" nr. 39/40 i inne) Wartość ta jest zafałszowana in plus ok. 1000 razy. 3. Po uruchomieniu EJ Żarnowiec dojdzie w Gdańsku do wzrostu umieralności na nowotwory o 200% (J.Jaśkowski, "Morze" nr. 2/89) Jest to wartość zafałszowana in plus ok. 100 000 razy. ... 5. "W 1987 roku nastąpił w całym kraju wzrost liczby martwych urodzeń o około 30 000 (Polityka" nr. 11/89, wartości te podawał również dr Jaśkowski za pośrednictwem TV) W roku 1986 liczba martwych urodzeń wyniosła 3703 a w roku 1987 -3475. Nastąpił zatem spadek o 228 a całkowite liczby martwych urodzeń były w obu latach o rząd niższe niż rzekomy, podany przez dr Jaśkowskiego wzrost. Itd. -itd...

41. Reactions of health, moral and science authorities In the US all past and actual presidents of the Health Physics Society, and in Poland the highest Board of Health Physics Society protested publicly and in press against enormous lies spread by the opponents. The Pope himself spoke in favour of nuclear power. United Nations Scientific Committee on Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) publishes every 4 years big reports for the UN providing the most recent scientific knowledge… but the effects are coming only slowly.

42. So, what about the future of nuclear power in Poland as a member of EU? • Nuclear power provides 35% of electricity in the EU – zero in Poland. • Coal provides 98% of electricity in Poland – this an exception in the world scale, only China comes close to that… • So the future structure of electricity generation in Poland must change. • Public opinion in the US, in Germany, Sweden, France – is for nuclear power. • Poland has recently introduced development of NPPs into long-term plans of electrical power generation. • Thus the nuclear option in Poland is open.