Core Inflation: Measures and Their Choice

1. Core Inflation: Measures and Their Choice Mick Silver IMF Statistics Department Joint UNECE/ILO Meeting on Consumer Price Indices (Geneva, 10-12 May 2006)

2. Introduction • Countries that adopt inflation targeting require a credible, timelymeasure of inflation to target: usually CPI. • Some components of the CPI, including food and energy, are particularly volatile and usually excluded. So too may be indirect taxes and interest (mortgage) payments. • The resulting “core inflation” measure is used for inflation targeting, though it is not always clear which components should be excluded.

3. Credibility: target and operational methods • Many possible methods and different measures serve different purposes: • Target measure: timely and credible, may be CPI. • Operational measures: best smooth best predict • Several core inflation measures may be used by the monetary authorities as operational guides for analytical and forecasting purposes with respect to achieving the target.

4. Responsibility: central bank vs. statistical authority • Depends on country circumstances • Credibility: responsibility should ideally lie with an autonomous statistical authority. • Integration into inflation targeting regime: a central bank must have a major role to play in the development of these measures. • Central bank may be responsible for measure based on use of statistical authority's CPI data. • In some countries central bank is responsible for CPI.

5. A derived statistic: error and bias • Product substitution • Outlet substitution • Index formula bias • Out-of-date weights: Young and Lowe • Quality change • New goods • Inappropriate coverage • Unrepresentative sampling • Bias/errors in data on prices/weights

6. The paper • first, to outline the range of methods available and advocate the use of more than one measure. • second, need to choose between the alternative methods and to promote a data-driven approach.

7. No single best method • There are many approaches, ways of implementing them, and methods for judging which is best. • Empirical research shows that different measures of core inflation yield different results, that is, that choice of measure matters. • Further, that different approaches to the choice as to which is best yield different results • Even for the same approach to choice, the preferred measure may differ across countries, and even within a county for different time periods.

8. The methods: • Exclusion-based methods • Product groups • Indirect taxes • One-off shocks • Domestically generated inflation • Imputation methods • Trend estimates • Limited influence estimators • Median • Trimmed means—symmetric and asymmetric • Reweighting the CPI • Persistence weights • Volatility weights • First principal component • Economic models

9. Exclusion-based methods: volatile prices • Exclusion-based methods exclude component price indices of a CPI that are considered to be particularly volatile. • Easy to understand, timely, and transparent, in that the user can replicate the measure. • Exclusion-based methods are often used by countries when they first instigate inflation targets. • A common approach is simply to exclude certain product groups. Usual exclusions are food and energy (F&E) argued on the basis of their undue volatility • Standard exclusions used by a number of countries: has the advantage that the authorities are less likely to be perceived to be manipulating the targeting.

10. Exclusion-based methods: but.... • What is volatile in one country is not in another. • The level of disaggregation matters – some seasonal foods only. • Data-driven – which products are volatile and the longevity of the volatility. • Objective method of determining which to products to exclude: • z x SD; trimmed mean; • but exclusions should not damage credibility.

11. Exclusion-based methods: other exclusions • Indirect taxes • Interest rates • Other major one-off or erratic shocks • Domestically generated inflation

12. Exclusion-based methods: imputations • Weights of excluded items might be better apportioned to product groups likely to experience similar “uncontaminated” price changes

13. How to choose between measures: general considerations • timely; • credible (verifiable); • easily understood by the public; • and not significantly biased (robust) with respect to the targeted measure; • have a track record of some sort; • have some theoretical basis; • not be subject to revisions.

14. Judging which method to use • Justifying the Exclusion of Product Groups on the Basis of their Volatility • Justifying the Exclusion of Product Groups on the Basis of their Volatility • Judging on the Basis of Deviations from a Reference Series • Judging on the Basis of Predictive Ability • Judging on the Basis of Predictive Ability • Judging on the Basis of Correlation with Money Supply

15. Concluding remarks • The empirical research shows that different measures yield different results, that is, that choice of measure matters. • Further, that different approaches to the choice of measure yield different results • and, even for the same approach to choice, the preferred measure may differ across countries, and even within a county for different time periods. • Choice of measure should thus, in principle, be data-driven for each country based on appropriate criteria

16. Concluding remarks • However, a consensus has emerged and, for reasons of maintaining credibility, this is for many countries a natural starting point. • First, is the use of the CPI as the basis for the core inflation measure, as the most visible and credible measure to anchor inflation expectations. • Second, is the widespread adoption of exclusion-based CPIs. There is some commonality in the products groups excluded and such exclusions can thus be justified as not manipulating the figures.

17. But...... • The decision as to what to exclude should be country-specific. • Where the CPI or an exclusion-based CPI is adopted it may be necessary for the central bank to have further measures to operationalize the targeting framework. • Exclusion-based methods may be found to not be best.

18. Data- and research-driven • All of this should be data driven, so that the methods adopted are tailored to the evolution of that country’s inflation and so that the choice of measure(s) can be justified on objective, transparent criteria. • Research is required to establish and develop an appropriate target measure, and operationalizing measures, to meet the needs of the targeting framework based on sound statistical criteria.