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Market Trends, Prices and Break-evens for 2011

Market Trends, Prices and Break-evens for 2011. Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock. Outline. Current Situation Projections for 2011-2012 Things to watch Market Alternatives. Where are we and how did we get here?. Current Situation. Livestock Marketing Information Center

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Market Trends, Prices and Break-evens for 2011

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  1. Market Trends, Prices and Break-evens for 2011 Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock

  2. Outline • Current Situation • Projections for 2011-2012 • Things to watch • Market Alternatives

  3. Where are we and how did we get here? Current Situation

  4. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  5. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  6. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

  7. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

  8. What can we expect this year and next? Outlook for 2011

  9. BEEF COWS THAT HAVE CALVEDJANUARY 1, 2011(1000 Head) Alaska Hawaii US Total Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

  10. CHANGE IN BEEF COW NUMBERSJANUARY 1, 2010 TO JANUARY 1, 2011(1000 Head) Alaska Hawaii US Total Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

  11. Meat supplies will be down slightly in 2011 Source: USDA-WASDE, April 2011 Report

  12. Declining cow numbers reflect lack of profitability in the sector

  13. Projected Prices 2011 and Beyond Source: USDA, LMIC and UGA

  14. Projected Profits for 2011 • Not very pretty • Fertilizer and feed costs will be the differences in profits (or lack of). • Longer-term producers are going to have look at increasing forage/less feeding.

  15. Since you don’t have enough to worry about Other items to watch

  16. The corn market continues to go crazy

  17. Tight Stocks Since ’07 in Feed Crops Despite Large Crops US Corn Supply and Demand

  18. More Corn Used for Ethanol as Energy Act Mandates Million bushels Source: USDA, 04/08/2011

  19. What about the future? • Information • Coordination • Location

  20. summary • Tight supplies and increasing demand will be supportive of prices. • Creeping inflation (fuel and food) implications for demand. • Next several years should be relatively good for cattlemen-if they can stay ahead of input prices. • Several other issues such as traceability, antibiotic use and humane treatments of animals will become more important but probably not more so than the demand for meat.

  21. www.secattleadvisor.com Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-livestock University of Georgia-tifton clacy@uga.edu

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