Carbon

1. Budget08 Released on 17 November 2009 ppt version 11 May 2010 Carbon Budget 2008 GCP-Global Carbon Budget Consortium

2. Artist Impression of the Human Perturbation of the Carbon Cycle

3. GCP-Carbon Budget2008 Consortium Corinne Le QuéréSchool of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK Michael R. RaupachGlobal Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia Josep G. CanadellGlobal Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia Gregg MarlandCarbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA Laurent BoppLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 1572 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France Philippe CiaisLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 1572 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France Thomas J. ConwayNOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA Scott C. DoneyWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA Richard A. FeelyPacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, USA Pru FosterQUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK Pierre Friedlingstein Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, FranceQUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UKKevin GurneyDepartment of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences and Department of Agronomy, Purdue University, Indiana, USA Richard A. Houghton Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA Joanna I. HouseQUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK Chris HuntingfordCentre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, UK Peter E. Levy Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, UK Mark R. Lomas  Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, U Joseph MajkutAOS Program, Princeton University, PO Box CN710, Princeton, New Jersey, USA Nicolas Metzl   LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France Jean P. OmettoInstituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São José dos Campos-SP, Brazil Glen P. PetersCenter for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, NorwayColin Prentice QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK James T. RandersonDepartment of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, USA Steven W. RunningSchool of Forestry/Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, University of Montana, Missoula, USA Jorge L. SarmientoAtmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, USA Ute SchusterSchool of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UKStephen SitchSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK Taro TakahashiLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, New York, USA Nicolas ViovyLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, FranceGuido R. van der WerfFaculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University, Amsterdam 1081 HV, Netherlands F. Ian WoodwardDepartment of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK

4. Growth rate: 3.4% per year 9 8 CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) 2008: Emissions: 8.7 PgC Growth rate: 2.0% 1990 levels: +41% 2000-2008 Growth rate: 3.4% Growth rate: 1.0% per year 7 6 2000 2010 1990 Fossil Fuel Emissions and Cement Production [1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1 Billion metric tonnes = 1 Gigatonne = 1x1015g] Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 2009

5. 5 55% Annex B (Kyoto Protocol) Developed Nation 4 CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) 3 45% Developing Nations Non-Annex B 2 2000 2010 1990 CO2 Fossil Fuel Emissions Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 2009

6. Fossil Fuel Emissions: Top Emitters (>4% of Total) 2000 China 1600 USA 1200 Carbon Emissions per year (tons x 1,000,000) 800 India Russian Fed. 400 Japan 0 03 07 99 03 05 1990 05 01 2008 Time Global Carbon Project 2009; Data: Gregg Marland, CDIAC 2009

7. Fossil Fuel Emissions: Profile Examples (1-4% of Total) UK 160 Canada South Africa 120 Carbon Emissions per year (tons x 1,000,000) Brazil 80 Australia Spain 40 Denmark 0 03 07 99 03 05 1990 05 01 2008 Time Global Carbon Project 2009; Data: Gregg Marland, CDIAC 2009

8. MtC Warm colors Net exporters of embodied carbon Cold colors  Net importers of embodied carbon BEET Balance of Emissions Embodied in Trade (BEET) Year 2004 Peters and Hertwich 2008, Environ, Sci & Tech., updated

9. 5 5 55% Annex B Developed Nations Annex B Developed Nations 4 4 45% 3 3 25% of growth Developing Nations Non-Annex B 2 2 Developing Nations Non-Annex B 2000 2010 2000 2010 1990 1990 Transport of Embodied Emissions CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Peters & Hetwich 2009; Peters et al. 2008; Weber et al 2008; Guan et al. 2008; CDIAC 2009

10. 3 countries 50% Global Emissions 10 countries 2/3 Global Emissions Top 5 + EU 80% Global Emissions Cumulative Fraction of Total FF Emissions 2008 Number of Countries Cumulative Fraction Country 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 20 50 (2005) 100 (2005) 210 China .232 USA .419 India .477 Russia .530 Japan .573 Germany .599 Canada .617 UK .633 South Korea .652 Iran .668 Poland .800 Belarus .941 Moldova .992 1.00 Gregg Marland, CDIAC 2009

11. 4 40% Oil 3 36% Coal CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) 2 Gas 1 Cement 0 2000 2010 1990 Components of FF Emissions Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

12. 2006-2008 300 250 90% of growth 200 CO2 emissions (TgC y-1) 150 100 50 0 India US World China -50 Change in CO2 Emissions from Coal Emissions CDIAC 2009; Global Carbon Project 2009

13. 1.3 1.2 1.1 Per Capita Emissions (tC person-1 y-1) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Per Capita CO2 Emissions Developed countries continue to lead with the highest emission per capita Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 2009

14. Averages Full range of IPCC individual scenarios Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, updated; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; International Monetary Fund 2009

15. Economic Crisis Impact on World GDP Growth -1.1% International Monetary Fund, October 2009

16. Averages Projection 2009 Emissions: -2.8% GDP: -1.1% C intensity: -1.7% Full range of IPCC individual scenarios Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, updated; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; International Monetary Fund 2009

17. Modified from Le Quéré et al. 2009

18. 10 8 Fossil fuel 6 CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) 4 Land use change 2 1970 1980 2010 2000 1960 1990 CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: CDIAC, FAO, Woods Hole Research Center 2009

19. Colombia Cameroon Venezuela Nicaragua Peru Rep.Dem.Congo India Nigeria Philippines Nepal 4-2% <1% 2-1% Net CO2 Emissions from LUC in Tropical Countries 2000-2005 600 60% 500 Brazil 400 Indonesia CO2 emissions (TgC y-1) 300 200 100 0 RA Houghton 2009, unpublished; Based on FAO Global Forest Resource Assessment

20. (Area) Emissions from Land Use Change (2000-2005) Canadell et al. 2009, Biogeosciences

21. Fire Emissions from deforestation zones (TgC y-1) Fire Emissions from Deforestation Zones Global Fire Emissions Dataset (vs2) van der Werf et al. 2006, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, updated

22. 10 8.7 8 Fossil fuel 6 CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) 4 Land use change 1.2 2 1970 1980 2010 2000 1960 1990 Total Anthropogenic Emissions 2008 9.9 PgC 12% of total anthropogenic emissions Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: CDIAC, FAO, Woods Hole Research Center 2009

23. 1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1 1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1 • 1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1 2000 - 2008: 1.9 ppm y-1 Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Year 2008 385 ppm 38% above pre-industrial Annual Mean Growth Rate 2008 1.79 2007 2.12 2006 1.77 2005 2.41 2004 1.62 2003 2.22 2002 2.40 2001 1.85 2000 1.24 Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, NOAA/ESRL

24. Key Diagnostic of the Carbon Cycle Evolution of the fraction of total emissions that remain in the atmosphere 10 Total CO2 emissions 8 CO2 Partitioning (PgC y-1) 6 Atmosphere 4 2 1970 1980 2010 2000 1960 1990 Data: NOAA, CDIAC; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

25. Trend: 0.27±0.2 % y-1 (p=0.9) 45% 40% Airborne Fraction Fraction of total CO2 emissions that remains in the atmosphere 1.0 0.8 0.6 Airborne Fraction 0.4 0.2 1970 1980 2010 2000 1960 1990 Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS; Raupach et al. 2008, Biogeosciences

26. Modelled Natural CO2 Sinks Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

27. Estimated Trends in Sea-Air pCO2 1981-2007 μatm y-1 outgas uptake Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

28. Emissions are rising faster than the time scales regulating the rate of uptake by sinks. Sinks are becoming less efficient at high CO2 Land: saturation of the CO2 fertilization effect Ocean: decrease in [carbonate] which buffers CO2 Land and/or ocean sinks are responding to climate change and variability. We are missing sink processes in models that are contributing to the observed changes. Possible Reasons for a Positive Trend in Airborne Fraction

29. Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget 2000-2008 PgC deforestation Source tropics extra-tropics 1.4 CO2 flux (Pg C y-1) Sink Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

30. Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget 2000-2008 PgC fossil fuel emissions 7.7 Source deforestation 1.4 CO2 flux (Pg C y-1) Sink Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

31. Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget 2000-2008 PgC fossil fuel emissions 7.7 Source deforestation 1.4 CO2 flux (Pg C y-1) atmospheric CO2 4.1 Sink Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

32. Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget 2000-2008 PgC fossil fuel emissions 7.7 Source deforestation 1.4 CO2 flux (Pg C y-1) atmospheric CO2 4.1 Sink ocean 2.3 (4 models) Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

33. Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget 2000-2008 PgC fossil fuel emissions 7.7 Source deforestation 1.4 CO2 flux (PgC y-1) atmospheric CO2 4.1 Sink land 3.0 (5 models) ocean 2.3 (4 models) Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

34. Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget 2000-2008 PgC fossil fuel emissions 7.7 Source deforestation 1.4 CO2 flux (PgC y-1) atmospheric CO2 4.1 Sink land 3.0 (5 models) ocean 2.3 (4 models) 0.3 Residual Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

35. 1.4 PgC y-1 4.1 PgC y-1 45% 3.0 PgC y-1 29% + 7.7 PgC y-1 26% 2.3 PgC y-1 Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2008) Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS, updated

36. Global Carbon Project 2009

37. The efficiency of the natural sinks has being declining over the last 60 years, a trend not fully captured by climate models. The human perturbation of the carbon cycle continues to grow strongly and track the most carbon intensive scenarios of the IPCC. The economic crisis will likely have a transitional impact on the growth of CO2 emissions and a undetectable effect on the growth of atmospheric CO2 (because the much larger inter-annual variability of the natural sinks). Conclusions

38. Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Houghton RA (2009) Anthropogenic CO2 emissions in Africa. Biogeosciences 6: 463-468. International Monetary Fund (2009) World economic outlook. October 2009. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/02/index.htm Le Quéré C, Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Marland G et al. (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature geosciences, doi: 10.1038/ngeo689. Marland G, Hamal K, Jonas M (2009) How uncertain are estimates of CO2 emissions. Journal of Industrial Ecology 13: 4-7. Peters GP, Hertwich E G (2008) CO2 embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy. Environmental Science and Technology 42, 1401-1407. Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Le Quéré C (2008) Drivers of interannual to interdecadal variability in atmospheric in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and airborne fraction. Biogeosciences 5: 1601–1613. Sitch S, Huntigford C, Gedney N et al. (2008) Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Global Change Biology 14: 1–25, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01626.x. van der Werf GR, Randerson JT, Giglio L, Collatz GL, Kasibhatla PS, Arellano AF, Jr (2006) Interannual variability in global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 6: 3423–3441. References cited in this ppt

39. www.globalcarbonproject.org