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The 2nd Younger Members Convention

abcd. The 2nd Younger Members Convention. 1-2 December 2003 The Glasgow Moat House. abcd. The 2nd Younger Members Convention. Exchanging affluence for influence An actuary goes into politics Stephen Yeo FIA. Why do it? What matters to politicians …. …. and what doesn’t?

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The 2nd Younger Members Convention

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  1. abcd The 2nd Younger Members Convention 1-2 December 2003 The Glasgow Moat House

  2. abcd The 2nd Younger Members Convention Exchanging affluence for influence An actuary goes into politics Stephen Yeo FIA

  3. Why do it? What matters to politicians …. …. and what doesn’t? What do politicians think of actuaries Garbage in:garbage out – a tale of National Statistics 95% is c**p Recent developments An actuary goes into politics

  4. My actuarial career 18 months with a life office, straight from school 19 years with Clay & Partners (now part of Aon) 10 years to qualify Examiner! “Not a complete disaster” Clays sold to Alexanders 1993: worked until 1995 An actuary goes into politics

  5. Exchanging affluence for influence

  6. Why do it? What next after a break? “Putting something back” ….or just having fun? Exchanging affluence for influence

  7. Volunteer initially Now permanent role at Central Office Working for Pensions and Treasury teams No affluence Amazing influence An actuary goes into politics

  8. Press stories: initiation or reaction Parliamentary activity Speeches Industry and decisionmaker contact Policy development What do I do?

  9. Headlines (at the front of the paper)

  10. Debates / Statements Oral Questions Written Questions Select Committees Standing Committees Parliamentary Activity

  11. Short deadlines (esp press and parliament) Variety Accuracy unimportant in the short-term but... …credibility would suffer from errors Close to the heart of the action What are the characteristics of the work?

  12. A timesheet Accept liability Travel Speak to voters Allow my name to appear What don’t I do?

  13. Winning the next election Appearing on TV Getting their name in the papers …especially near the front Getting the party’s name in the papers Government v Opposition What matters to politicians?

  14. “What actuaries failed to tell us in the 1990s”(letter to the FT 25 April 2003) …signed Howard Flight MP, Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Letters FIA - a benign influence? What do politicians think of actuaries?

  15. MQ5: Insurance Companies’, Pension Funds and Trusts Investment In paper form had a circulation of just 23 In 2002 the end 1999 assets figure cut by £104 bn Press released a week later on the morning of a pensions debate “Largest mistake in world statistical history” Figures corrected after three months Garbage in–garbage out:A tale of National Statistics

  16. Patience Wheatcroft in The Times (5 February 2002): “David Willetts, the two-brained Conservative pensions spokesman was doing some research …” “Thanks to the zeal of Mr Willetts, and perhaps to the poverty of Conservative Central Office, a glaring discrepancy has been uncovered” Garbage in – garbage out

  17. Contribution figure did not agree with the value of tax relief This time we tried to make it easier for them Sunday Telegraph article 10 March 2002: “Government hides pension black hole” Written question answered 16 May 2002 “These figures emphasise that the basic structure of pensions in this country is right” More garbage from National Statistics

  18. Another newspaper article 10 June 2002 (in David Willetts name) Three weeks elapse Called to Andrew Smith’s office on 1 July Front page of three broadsheets plus inside four more papers Contributions estimate reduced from £86 billion to £43 billion after three months More garbage from National Statistics (continued)

  19. Pension statistics withdrawn twice in 2002 Minister apologises to the House 12 person working party sat for 3 months … … produced 94 page report with 30 recommendations, and … The figures are still WRONG! Pension Statistics – Overall Score

  20. Title of a book by Terry Arthur FIA General rant at all political parties in the 1970s Statistical C**p section Fiddling the calculation of RPI Plus ça change 95% is C**p

  21. Conservative Party pledge to restore the earnings link to State Pensions Earnings link broken under Margaret Thatcher in 1981 Consistently opposed by Labour 1981 – 1997 but not reinstated by them Earnings link called for by Unions and Pensioners groups for over 20 years My policy! Recent Developments

  22. “In contrast to Mr Duncan Smith, his [Michael Howard’s] private office has been a model of efficiency. Mr Howard's people are adept at digging out material that embarrasses the government.”The Economist 30 October 2003 Leadership election

  23. A huge contrast with conventional actuarial work Amazing influence Minimal reward Little public recognition Conclusion

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