Energy Efficiency Lessons and Plans from California Delhi & Mumbai, March 2009

1. Energy Efficiency Lessons and Plans from California Delhi & Mumbai, March 2009 & APP, Berkeley CA, April 30, 2009 Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner California Energy Commission (916) 654-4930 ARosenfe@Energy.State.CA.US http://www.energy.ca.gov/commissioners/rosenfeld.html or just Google “Art Rosenfeld”

2. Does Anyone See A Problem With This Picture?

3. Two Energy Agencies in California The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) was formed in 1890 to regulate natural monopolies, like railroads, and later electric and gas utilities. The California Energy Commission (CEC) was formed in 1974 to regulate the environmental side of energy production and use. Now the two agencies work very closely, particularly to delay climate change. The Investor-Owned Utilities, under the guidance of the CPUC, spend “Public Goods Charge” money (rate-payer money) to do everything they can that is cost effective to beat existing standards. The Publicly-Owned utilities (20% of the power), under loose supervision by the CEC, do the same.

4. California Energy Commission Responsibilities Both Regulation and R&D • California Building and Appliance Standards • Started 1977 • Updated every few years • Siting Thermal Power Plants Larger than 50 MW • Forecasting Supply and Demand (electricity and fuels) • Research and Development • ~ $80 million per year • CPUC & CEC are collaborating to introduce communicating electric meters and thermostats that are programmable to respond to time-dependent electric tariffs.

5. California’s Energy Action Plan • California’s Energy Agencies first adopted an Energy Action Plan in 2003. Central to this is the State’s preferred “Loading Order” for resource expansion. • 1. Energy efficiency and Demand Response • 2. Renewable Generation, • 3. Increased development of affordable & reliable conventional generation • 4. Transmission expansion to support all of California’s energy goals. • The Energy Action Plan has been updated since 2003 and provides overall policy direction to the various state agencies involved with the energy sectors

9. Impact of Standards on Efficiency of 3 Appliances 110 = Effective Dates of 100 National Standards Effective Dates of = State Standards 90 Gas Furnaces 80 75% 70 60% Index (1972 = 100) 60 Central A/C 50 SEER = 13 40 Refrigerators 30 25% 20 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Year Source: S. Nadel, ACEEE, in ECEEE 2003 Summer Study, www.eceee.org

10. New United States Refrigerator Use v. Time and Retail Prices 2,000 25 1,800 1,600 20 1,400 $ 1,270 Refrigerator 1,200 15 Size (cubic ft) Refrigerator volume (cubic feet) Average Annual Energy Use(kwh) or Price($) 1,000 800 10 600 Energy Use per Refrigerator (kWh/Year) 400 5 Refrigerator Price $ 462 in 1983 $ 200 0 0 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 ~ 100 gallons Gasoline/year ~ 1 Ton CO2/year Source: David Goldstein

11. In the United States = 80 power plants of 500 MW each

12. In the United States

14. Comparison of 3 Gorges to Refrigerator and AC Efficiency Improvements TWh Wholesale (3 Gorges) at 3.6 c/kWh Retail (AC + Ref) at 7.2 c/kWh Value of TWh 三峡电量与电冰箱、空调能效对比 120 7.5 100 If Energy Star Air Conditioners 空调 80 6.0 2005 Stds Air Conditioners 空调 TWH/Year Value (billion $/year) 2000 Stds 60 4.5 If Energy Star 3.0 40 Savings calculated 10 years after standard takes effect. Calculations provided by David Fridley, LBNL 2005 Stds Refrigerators 冰箱 20 1.5 2000 Stds 0 3 Gorges 三峡 Refrigerators 冰箱 3 Gorges 三峡 标准生效后，10年节约电量

16. California IOU’s Investment in Energy Efficiency Forecast Crisis Performance Incentives Profits decoupled from sales IRP Market Restructuring 2% of 2004 IOU Electric Revenues Public Goods Charges

17. Demand Response In 3 cool seasons CA peak is 40 GW, but a/c adds 20 GW in summer So we want demand response to price. So all customers will receive Communicating interval meters, 10 million of them Dynamic pricing: TOU summer afternoon + “critical peak” 10 days/yr Programmable communicating thermostats and controls. Cost premiums are small: $20-30 for meters, $20-30 for thermostats TOU and dynamic pricing will change the design of buildings – promote thermal storage and the use of thermal mass, white roofs, etc. If you announce dynamic prices today, architects will design better buildings tomorrow.

18. California is VERY MUCH a Summer Peaking Area

19. Critical Peak Pricing (CPP)with additional curtailment option Potential Annual Customer Savings: 10 afternoons x 4 hours x 1kw = 40 kWh at 70 cents/kWh = ~$30/year ? 80 Standard TOU 70 Critical Peak Price CPP Price Signal 10x per year Standard Rate 60 Extraordinary Curtailment Signal, < once per year 50 Price (cents/kWh) 40 30 20 10 0 Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

20. Just some of the proposed systems for PCTs and demand response in the residential and small commercial/industrial sectors.

21. White Roofs

22. Temperature Rise of Various Materials in Sunlight 50 40 30 20 10 0 Galvanized Steel Black Paint IR-Refl. Black White Cement Coat. Temperature Rise (°C) Al Roof Coat. Green Asphalt Shingle Red Clay Tile White Asphalt Shingle White Paint Lt. Green Paint Optical White Lt. Red Pain 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Solar Absorbance

23. White is ‘cool’ in Bermuda

24. and in Santorini, Greece

25. and in Hyderabad, India

26. Cool Roof Technologies New Old flat, white pitched, cool & colored pitched, white

27. Cool Colors Reflect Invisible Near-Infrared Sunlight

28. White Roofs • In California and a growing number of US states, white roofs are required for new buildings, and re-roofing to reduce air conditioning load and “smog”(O3). • But a new concept is that white roofs also cool the world directly.

29. Effect of Solar Reflective Roofs and Pavements in Cooling the Globe (Source: Akbari, Menon, Rosenfeld. Climatic Change, 2008) ** * *** * White Roof will be “diluted” by cool colored roofs of lower reflectivity, and roofs that can not be changed, because they are long-lived tile, or perhaps they are already white. Compare 10 tons with a family car, which emits ~4 tons/year. ** *** 24 Gt CO2 Offsets Global CO2 emissions in 2009

30. CO2 Equivalency of Cool RoofsWorld-wide (Tropics+Temperate) • Cool Roofs alone offset 24 Gt CO2 • Worth > €600 Billion • To Convert 24 Gt CO2 one time into a rate • Assume 20 Year Program, thus 1.2 Gt CO2/year • Average World Car Emits 4 tCO2/year, equivalent to 300 Million Cars off the Road for 20 years.

31. Akbari et al. Main Finding 100 m2 of a white roof, replacing a dark roof, offset the emission of 10 tons of CO2

32. To be published in Climatic Change 2008. • Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2 July 28, 2008 Hashem Akbari and Surabi Menon Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA H_Akbari@lbl.gov Tel: 510-486-4287 Arthur Rosenfeld California Energy Commission, USA Arosenfe@energy.state.ca.us Tel: 916-654 4930 • A First Step In Geo-Engineering Which Saves Money and Has Known Positive Environmental Impacts

33. Conservation Supply Curves and Carbon Abatement Curves

35. PG&E Electric Supply CurveSummary of Previous Slide • 200 Projects costing at or below 12 cents /kWh average retail price • Total Potential Savings of 18,000 GWh for these projects • This represents about 20% of total electric sales for PG&E in 2008

39. Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How Much at What Cost? US Greenhouse Gas Abatement Mapping Initiative December 12, 2007

40. U.S. mid-range abatement curve – 2030 Abatement cost <$50/ton Residential buildings – HVAC equipment efficiency Commercial buildings – HVAC equipment efficiency Cost Real 2005 dollars per ton CO2e Afforestation of cropland Coal power plants– CCS rebuilds with EOR 90 Industrial process improve-ments Residential buildings – Shell retrofits Coal mining – Methane mgmt Solar CSP Fuel economy packages – Light trucks Active forest management Distributed solar PV 60 Residential electronics Commercial buildings – Combined heat and power Commercial buildings – Control systems Nuclear new-build Residential water heaters 30 Residential buildings – Lighting 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 Potential Gigatons/year Onshore wind – Low penetration Industry – CCS new builds on carbon-intensive processes -30 Onshore wind – High penetration Industry – Combined heat and power Biomass power – Cofiring -60 Cellulosic biofuels Manufacturing – HFCs mgmt Car hybridi-zation Existing power plant conversion efficiency improvements Coal power plants – CCS new builds with EOR -90 Residential buildings – New shell improvements Onshore wind – Medium penetration Coal-to-gas shift – dispatch of existing plants Commercial electronics Conservation tillage Winter cover crops -120 Commercial buildings – CFL lighting Coal power plants – CCS rebuilds Reforestation -230 -220 Commercial buildings – LED lighting Commercial buildings – New shell improvements Afforestation of pastureland Coal power plants – CCS new builds Natural gas and petroleum systems management Fuel economy packages – Cars Source: McKinsey analysis

41. 8% 17% 25% 33% 42% 50% 58%

42. Source: Pat McAuliffe, pmcaulif@energy.state.ca.us

43. Source: Pat McAuliffe, pmcaulif@energy.state.ca.us