500 likes | 617 Views
NORONHA ADVOGADOS GLOBAL LAWYERS. São Paulo | Rio de Janeiro | Brasília | Curitiba | Porto Alegre | Recife. London | Lisbon | Shanghai | Miami | Buenos Aires. Brazilian Foreign Trade and Investment Flow. Canning House. Durval de Noronha Goyos Jr. Senior Partner - Noronha Advogados
E N D
NORONHA ADVOGADOS GLOBAL LAWYERS São Paulo | Rio de Janeiro | Brasília | Curitiba | Porto Alegre | Recife London | Lisbon | Shanghai | Miami | Buenos Aires Brazilian Foreign Trade and Investment Flow Canning House Durval de Noronha Goyos Jr. Senior Partner - Noronha Advogados London, 21 April 2008.
POINTS OF PRESENTATION • Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy • Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners 3. General Aspects of Brazil's Foreign Policy
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Economic Growth % Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE * Central Bank estimate
Total GDP US$ 1.929 trillion. GDP per capita US$ 9.700 (2007) GDP per capita US$ 9.108 (2006) Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Brazil's GDP (incorporating purchase power parity rating) Source: CIA World Book
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Brazil’s GDP in US$ Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE In yellow – IBGE’s new methodology .
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Development of External Debt Source: Central Bank * MAR/2008
Fundamentals of Brazil's EconomyBrazilian International Reserves Source: Central Bank *MAR/2008
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Brazilian International Reserves US$ Billion Source: Central Bank *MAR/2008
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Foreign Direct Investment in Brazil US$ Billion Source: Central Bank. * Estimate
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Foreign Direct Investment in Brazil US$ Billion Source: Central Bank. * Estimate
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Brazil: Inflation rate % Source: Central Bank * Estimate
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Brazilian Direct Investment Abroad US$ Billion Source: Central Bank *Estimate
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Brazilian Direct Investment Abroad US$ Billion Source: Central Bank *Estimate
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Brazilian Direct Investment Abroad: Main Countries in 2007 20% 15% 29% 3% 10% 4% 10% 9% Source: Central Bank
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Brazilian Direct Investment Abroad By Sector in 2007 4% 2% 94% Source: Central Bank
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Some Brazilian Acquisitions Abroad • 2008 – Mirab (Argentina) by Marfrig (US$ 36 million) 1 • 2007 – Swift Foods by Friboi (US$ 1.5 billion) 2 • 2007 – Chaparral Steel by Gerdau (US$ 4.2 billion)3 • 2007 - Acerías Paz (Colombia) by the Votorantim Group (US$ 491 million)4 • 2006 – INCO (Canada) by Vale do Rio Doce (US$ 13.4 billion)5 • 2005 – Loma Negra (Argentina) by Camargo Correa (US$ 1.025 billion) 6 Sources: 1Estado de São Paulo, 3 January 2008 2 www.jbs.com.br 3 www.gerdau.com.br 4 Valor Econômico, 27 December 2007 5 www.vale.com.br 6 www.camargocorrea.com.br
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Foreign Direct Investments: Outflows by Country US$ Billion Brazil Source: Unctad, World Investment Report 2007
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Foreign Direct Investments: Inflows by Country US$ Billion Brazil Source: Unctad, World Investment Report 2007
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Development R$ x US$ 1,74 Source: Central Bank
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Development R$ x € 2,55 Source: Central Bank
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Development R$ x RMB Source: Central Bank
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Main problems yet to be solved • taxes are not competitive; • interest rates are very high; • Brazilian currency overvalued.
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Brazilian Agribusiness Source: International Relations and Trade Institute - Icone Brasil
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Automotive Production Source: National Automotive Industry Association - ANFAVEA * estimate
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Oil Production • 2005 – 1.85 million barrels a day • 2006 – Brazil achieves self sufficiency in oil • 2007 – Discovery of Tupi oilfield with estimated 10 billion of barrels of oil.The discovery doubles Brazilian reserves. • 2008 – Discovery of Carioca oilfield with estimated 33 billion barrels of oil. Discovery more than doubles oil reserves again. • 2010 – 3.4 million barrels a day* Source: Petrobrás * Petrobrás estimate
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Ethanol Production • 500 million litres/year • Increase in cultivated area by 67,000 hectares • Creation of 20,000 direct jobs and 60,000 indirect jobs • Investments in production chain estimated at around USD 150 million/year • CO2 emission reduction by 3.5 million tons/year Source: Sugar Cane Industry Union - UNICA
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Aeroplane Trade (US$ Million FOB) Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Ship Industry • The ship industry in Brazil is rebuilding itself after years of depression. By 2012, 26 new ships will be delivered to Transpetro (Petrobras Transports) with the contracts in that respect worth US$ 2,5 billion. • In 2007 direct jobs in the Brazilian ship industry increased by 40,000. • By October 2007, the total of the loans from BNDES* was in the amount of R$ 3,6 billion in relation to the ship industry. • The estimated income of the ship industry is R$ 4,5 billion, from building ships to building oil platforms. *BNDES - Brazilian Development Bank Source: Construction Industry National Syndicate
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Base Industries Steel : • In 2007, Brazilian production reached record levels, closing at 40 million tons, up from 30,9 million of 2006. • The estimate for 2008 is an increase of 10,8% Cement : • In 2007, Brazil produced 45.878 millions tons of cement, an increase of 9,4% from 2006. Source: Brazilian Cement Association and Brazilian Iron Institute
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Brazil's Social Development: Division by Classes in 2007 15% 39% 28 million people 86,2 million people 72,9 million people 46% Source: Ipsos Public Affairs and the financial institution Cetelem.
Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy Brazil's Social Development: Growth of Class C % of Population 48% 36% 34% Source: Ipsos Public Affairs and the financial institution Cetelem.
Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners Brazilian Trade US$ Billion Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC * Central Bank estimate
Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners Brazilian Trade US$ Billion Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC * Central Bank estimate
Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners Brazilian Trade with European Union US$ Billion Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC * JAN/FEV 2008
Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners Brazilian Trade with European Union US$ Billion Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC * JAN/FEV 2008
Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners Brazilian Trade with China US$ Billion Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC * JAN/FEV 2008
Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners US$ Billion Brazilian Trade with China Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC * JAN/FEV 2008
Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners Brazilian Flow of Trade Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC FEB/2008
Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners Sources of Brazil’s Imports Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC JAN/2008
Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners Flow of trade between Brazil and selected economic blocs 24% 35% 19% 10% 5% 7% Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC FEB/2008
Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners Brazil's Agribusiness Trade US$ Billion Source: Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock - CNA *Estimate
Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners Main Destinations for Brazil's Agribusiness Exportation Source: Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock - CNA *Estimate
Brazil's External Trade and Trade with Selected Partners Main Destinations for Brazil's Agribusiness Exportation Source: Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock - CNA *Estimate
Potential Areas for Agricultural Expansion ( Million Hectares) 394 400 350 Area available 269 300 for expansion 220 250 81 328 176 169 200 138 Area already 88 utilized 150 60 42 76 71 188 100 169 132 116 31 96 44 50 66 45 27 0 Brazil USA Russia E.U. India China Canada Argentina Federation Source: Guia Exame 2005 Agronegócio apud FAO/IBGE.
General Aspects of Brazil's Foreign Policy Brazil’s prevailing foreign policy doctrine recognizes the vulnerability of the country in a number of areas: • Economic; • Technological; • Political; • Commercial; and • Military. Source: Ministry of External Relations of Brazil
General Aspects of Brazil's Foreign Policy Brazil’s present foreign policy doctrine recommends alliances with other major developing countries such as: • China; • India; • Russia; and • South Africa In order to minimize such vulnerabilities. Source: Ministry of External Relations of Brazil
NORONHA ADVOGADOS IN LONDON Noronha Advogados have had a presence in London since 1988. Today, the firm assists clients of various nationalities wishing to do business in the United Kingdom, as well as the European Union. It also assists clients interested in business opportunities in Brazil. The office has a wide range of international professionals, capable of practising law in different European jurisdictions, as well as in Brazil. 4th floor, 193/195 Brompton RoadSW3 1NE London England Phones: Tel: (20) 7581-5040 Fax:(20) 7581-8002Email: noadlon@noronhaadvogados.com.br Contact: Vera Helena de Moraes Dantas vmd@noronhaadvogados.com.br
Durval de Noronha Goyos Jr. dng@noronhaadvogados.com.br www.noronhaadvogados.com.br