470 likes | 687 Views
Housing Outlook For D.C. June 1, 2006. Michael Carliner. Real GDP Growth. Percent change (Q/Q). Employment Changes. (000s, Month-to-Month, thru April ‘05). Payroll Employment Growth. Percent change (Y/Y). Consumer Price Inflation. ( Y/Y % Change). CPI-All Items. Core PCE Index.
E N D
Housing Outlook For D.C. June 1, 2006 Michael Carliner
Real GDP Growth Percent change (Q/Q)
Employment Changes (000s, Month-to-Month, thru April ‘05)
Payroll Employment Growth Percent change (Y/Y)
Consumer Price Inflation (Y/Y % Change) CPI-All Items Core PCE Index
Fed Funds Rate Percent Nominal Avg Real Rate 1988-2005 Real Real rate = nominal minus Y/Y change in NIPA price index for PCE excl food and energy
Mortgage Interest Rates Percent Fixed-Rate Mortgages Adjustable-Rate Mortgages
Single-Family Housing Starts (Thousands of units, Seasonally Adjusted)
Multifamily Housing Starts (Thousands of units, Seasonally Adjusted)
Rental Vacancy Ratesby Units in Structure Percent 5 Or More Single-family Census Bureau Housing Vacancy Survey
Multifamily Completions Thousands Sources: Census Bureau, HUD LIHTC Database, NAHB estimates
DC Starts as Share of DC Metro Percent
Growth in Jobs Percent
Growth in Population Percent
PPI: New Residential Inputs Y/Y % Change SF MF
Framing Lumber Composite Prices ($ Price/MBF) Source: Random Lengths
Gypsum Products (Y/Y %) ( 1984 = 100)
Cement (Y/Y %) ( 1984 = 100)
Copper Components and Products 1/02 =100 Ore Scrap Mill shapes Wire/cable Bureau of Labor Statistics
Steel Products 1/02 =100 Scrap Semi-finished Hot-rolled Cold-rolled Nails Bureau of Labor Statistics
Builders Reporting Shortages : May 2006 Source: NAHB Builders Economic Council Survey
Composition of New Housing Construction Manufactured Homes Multifamily Single-family Source: Bureau of Census single-family housing starts, multifamily housing starts, and manufactured home shipments.
House Price Growth Vs. CPI Core Year-to-Year % Chg. House Prices CPI Core Sources: OFHEO (purchase only), BLS
Median New Home Price/Median Income Median New Home Sales Price: Census ; Median HH Income: CPS/Economy.com
Payment (PIT) / Median HH Income Home Price: Census Median New Home; 30yr Rate: Freddie Mac; Income: CPS/Economy.com
Expected User Cost/Median HH Income Expected appreciation = avg rate of increase for OFHEO House Price Index in preceding 3 years; Uses Med New Home Price, Freddie Mac Mortgage Rate, 28% Tax Bracket, 1% RE Tax, 1.25% Maint/Dep, 80% LTV, Alt Investment = 10yr Treasury Bond