Outline of the Talk

1. Applications-Focused Research on the African Weather & Climate SystemsUCAR Africa Initiative Meeting, BoulderDecember 19th 2006Fredrick Semazzi[http://climlab4.meas.ncsu.edu]North Carolina State University

2. Outline of the Talk (i) Multi-scale Modeling and Analysis of the Variability of the African Climate – Nile Basin (ii) ISET Atlantic Hurricanes Research (West Africa) (iii) Related activities and potential partners

3. OVERALL ANALYSIS AND MODELLING STRATEGY OF THE PROPOSED PROJECT

4. Nile Basin Climate Variability Problem River Nile Lake Victoria

5. … regional significance… • The Nile Basin water supports about 300 million people from 10 African countries • Los Alamos (US)-March 19, 2006 (NV): Former ambassador David Shin …on the Nile basin … the "water war" that can clearly be seen approaching like a tidal wave… • ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia (The Associated Press) - African countries could face water wars if the power of their mighty rivers isn't properly harnessed and shared • KAMPALA, May 4, 2006 (New Vision) : Uganda, 27 million … crippling power shortages have caused daily black-outs … its hydropower capacity of 380 Mega Watts (MW) on the River Nile has fallen to 135 MW because of the extended regional drought. • AP Special Correspondent, Sat Dec 9: Vast African lake levels dropping fast… at 27,000 square miles, the size of Ireland, Victoria is the greatest of Africa's Great Lakes — the biggest freshwater body after Lake Superior. And it has dropped fast, at least six feet in the past three years, and by as much as a half-inch a day this year…the report, by U.S.-based Water Resources and Energy Management International… a further dramatic drop in Victoria's water levels might even turn off this spigot for the Nile, a lifeline for more than 100 million Egyptians, Sudanese and others • CLIMATE RESEARCH can contribute to a comprehensive resolution of the threat of an international-scale water crisis among the Nile Basin region countries by clarifying the contribution of climate variability to the regional water problem

6. Aerial view of Nalubaale-Kiira Dam Complex: Uganda THE AGREED CURVE

7. Dramatic Drop in Lake Victoria Level ENSO-IOZM climate variability or excessive release? excessive release? “no trend” pre-1961 lake levels Drought?

8. Drought …YES!

9. Excessive Release-YES! Figure A–1: Actual and Agreed Curve–prescribed total releases at Nalubaale and Kiira Dams for September 2004 to early March 2006. It can be seen that the actual releases were far greater than those prescribed by the Agreed Curve.  Indeed, during the period September 2004 to March 2006, the actual releases were 194% of those prescribed by the agreed curve: almost double (Daniel Kull)

10. A Miltiscale Problem ...

11. Lake Victoria Lake Level Predictions Qin=Inflow P=Precipitation over lake E=Evaporation over lake A=Area of the lake (based on modified Tate et al (2004) method

12. Preliminary Plan for Ship Transects(>2 weeks) Radar Drifters for surface currents (@ 2k) + boats for relocation & synoptic measurements Radar ADCP: Acoustic Doppler Current Profiles (3 @ $30K) CTD: Conductivity, Temperature and Depth (3 @ 10K) Ship transects Radar Radar Land-based temporary meteorological stations

13. Summary of Nile Basin Study • Lake circulation is characterized by two counter-rotating gyres (in both ideal and real geometry simulations) • Coupling of the lake is important for required details of the subcatchment temperature/rainfall required in the calculations for the lake levels & other applications • A multiscale approach is required • Framework can play a major role in defining required model accuracy

14. Sunphotometer NOAA-ISET Interdisciplinary Scientific Environmental Technology Cooperative Science Center RESEARCH THRUST AREAS Partner Institutions MISSION Train and educate students in NOAA scientific areas and develop technology and analysis techniques of global data sets for improved understanding of climate change. Thrust area II Global Observing systems: numerical and physical research Development of new sensors and lidars systems for more accurate climate analysis. Development of algorithms for retrieving data from a wide range of sensor networks. Thrust area I Sensor science and technology: Basic research, Sensor technology development Development of web based data exploratory algorithms for determining the suitability of global data sets . Development of in-depth signal detection techniques, which exploit recent research developments in multivariate stream data mining. Thrust area III Data mining & Fusion and geospatial data models • Use high resolution imager data and historical correlations University Partners: University of Alaska Southeast (UAS) California State University-Fresno (CSU-Fresno) City University of New York (CUNY) Fisk University (FU) University of North Carolina at Pembroke (UNCP) North Carolina State University (NCSU) University of Minnesota (UM) Improve functionality of integrated optical sensor packages. Provide algorithms for atmospheric monitoring of traces gases. Mine multiple data sets from multiple sensor platforms. Develop methods, which combine the benefits of physical models and statistical analysis for sensor data fusion. Understanding Climate Change Industrial Partners Simpson Weather Associates Arete Associates SAS Institute Inc. Vexcel Corporation: Remote Sensing Government Partners USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service East National Technology Support Center Brookhaven National Laboratory NC Department of Environment and Natural Resources Center for Geographic Information and Analysis SURA: Southeastern Universities Research Association GOALS (1) Conduct research to develop new sensors for profiling atmospheric trace constituents and meteorological variables, water quality sensors and integrated sensor packages designed for deployment in the economically important coastal regions. Conduct research using both numerical and empirical methods on the analysis of observing systems and use remote sensing to characterize and specify significant factors affecting tropical storms to provide better-forecast models and predictions. Develop data-fusion techniques, develop sensor networks and multiagent and grid computing to support implementation of the analytic techniques. (4) Develop capacity in research in NOAA scientific areas within the lead and partner institutions, to be able to train and educate students in NOAA scientific areas. (5) Establish NOAA-ISET graduate and undergraduate scholarships at all partner universities during the first year of the ISET Center. (6) Develop a concentration in atmospheric sciences and climate modeling within the Ph.D. program in Energy and Environmental Sciences during the first year of the ISET Center. (7) Establish an undergraduate degree program in Earth System Science at NCA&T and some partner universities during the first year of the ISET Center.

15. Background Phases of Hurricane Development Ocean Phase Americas Phase African Phase Inland Flooding Phase Hurricane Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Easterly Wave Disturbance Orographic Cyclongenesis

16. Background Understanding Transition Phases of Hurricane Development African Waves Landfall Unique contribution ? ? TC ? Hurricane ? Depression Storm

17. Summary of Research Tasks • Analysis of multi-dimensional global observing systems to identify linkages among hurricane developmental phases and response to climate change–Diagnostic Methods • Study of 2005 extreme hurricane season & 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006 - to investigate role of the African Easterly wave activity - RegCM3. • WRF individual Hurricane simulation experiments to study the relative roles of various climatic forcing mechanisms over the exit and bifurcation regions – WRF/HYCOM for background climatology & WRF (version with moving-nest, vortex-tracking algorithm). • ALL-domain seasonal simulations to investigate the relative roles of climatic forcing mechanisms over the exit and bifurcation regions (if additional support can be identified)-WRF( version with moving-nest, vortex-tracking algorithm). • Simulations to support design of future observations sensor networks; 4DVAR with different combinations of observational data. WRF + 4DVAR • Investigate the role of ocean color on hurricane development (If funds are identified) • Dependency of inland flooding on different landfall regimes & pre-existing climatic conditions. Extend the HTDF to include (intensity, direction, speed information)- HAM3d Watershed coupled model– single CPU

18. Africa-Atlantic Exit Region Teleconnections H H L L African Easterly Wave Track Axis

19. Africa-Atlantic Exit Region Teleconnections H H L L African Easterly Wave Track Axis

20. Africa-Atlantic Exit Region QuikSCAT is a polar orbiting; 1800 km wide measurement swath; Generally results in twice per day coverage over a given geographic region. Current date and time: 05:32 GMT, Nov 4 2006

21. Africa-Atlantic Exit Region SEAWiFS Ocean Color: Chlorophyll Current date and time: 05:32 GMT, Nov 4 2006

22. Bifurcation Region … difficult to interpret …

23. Our new method is based on the identification of “hurricane track patterns” using “Hurricane Track Density Function” Bifurcation Region where when ,otherwise.

24. Bifurcation Region EOF1 EOF2 HTDF EOFs: (a) HTDF space field associated with EOF 1 (30.47%), (b) HTDF space field associated with EOF2 (12.89%) and (c) HTDF space field associated with EOF3 (9.72%) EOF3

25. Related Activities/Programs/Opportunities • Regions economic unions • ACMAD (Western Africa) - ECOWAS • ICPAC (Eastern Africa) – IGAD • DMCH (Southern Africa) – SADC • Universities • University of Ghana, Nairobi, Capetown, Cairo • International • WCRP/VACS – “Clearing House” • WMO/RA I • WMO/CLIPS • British Africa Initiative • Canadian Africa Initiative • Scandanavian Africa Initiative • Other • AMMA, IRI, World Bank, SSA-NSF

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