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Interim Warning Procedures and the

Interim Warning Procedures and the Communication Plan for the Interim Tsunami Advisory Information Service Dr. Charles McCreery, Director NOAA Richard H. Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning Center Ewa Beach, Hawaii USA T. Hachimine, Director Japan Tsunami Warning Center Tokyo, Japan.

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Interim Warning Procedures and the

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  1. Interim Warning Procedures and the Communication Plan for the Interim Tsunami Advisory Information Service Dr. Charles McCreery, Director NOAA Richard H. Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning Center Ewa Beach, Hawaii USA T. Hachimine, Director Japan Tsunami Warning Center Tokyo, Japan

  2. PTWC KEY OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES • FOR PACIFIC EVENTS • SEISMIC DATA COLLECTION & ANALYSES • SEA LEVEL MEASUREMENTS • DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES • MESSAGE CREATION & DISSEMINATION

  3. PTWC KEY OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES • FOR INDIAN OCEAN REGION EVENTS • SEISMIC DATA COLLECTION & ANALYSES • SEA LEVEL MEASUREMENTS • DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES • MESSAGE CREATION & DISSEMINATION

  4. Frequency of Each Type of Bulletin (based on last 100 years of events)

  5. Seismic criteria for PTWC IO Advisories

  6. PTWC Global Seismic Network

  7. P-WAVE TRAVEL TIMES FOR 12/26/04 EARTHQUAKE

  8. INTERACTIVE TOOL TO DETERMINE Mwp MOMENT MAGNITUDE

  9. PERFORMANCE OF PTWC Mwp Mwp (PTWC) Mw (Harvard)

  10. ISSUE TIME OF PTWC INITIAL BULLETINS FOR PACIFIC TELESEISMIC EARTHQUAKES

  11. Sea Level Stations currently contributing data to PTWC

  12. Sample Tsunami Information Bulletin TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001 PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS ISSUED AT 0117Z 11 APR 2005 THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN. ... TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN ... THIS MESSAGE IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS ORIGIN TIME - 0100Z 11 APR 2005 COORDINATES - 1.3 NORTH 97.5 EAST LOCATION - NORTHERN SUMATERA INDONESIA MAGNITUDE - 6.7

  13. EVALUATION A DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT DOES NOT EXIST BASED ON HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA. HOWEVER - THERE IS A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL TSUNAMI THAT COULD AFFECT COASTS LOCATED USUALLY NO MORE THAN A HUNDRED KILOMETERS FROM THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES IN THE REGION NEAR THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE MADE AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FOR THIS EVENT. Sample Tsunami Information Bulletin (cont’d)

  14. Sample Local Tsunami Watch Supplement TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 002 PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS ISSUED AT 0354Z 11 APR 2005 THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN. ... A LOCAL TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ... A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INDONESIA FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION, THIS MESSAGE IS AN ADVISORY ONLY. AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS ORIGIN TIME - 0100Z 11 APR 2005 COORDINATES - 1.3 NORTH 97.5 EAST LOCATION - NORTHERN SUMATERA INDONESIA MAGNITUDE - 7.2

  15. MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER ------------------- ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- MALE 4.2N 73.5E 0448Z 0.19M 14MIN COLOMBO 6.9N 79.8E 0345Z 0.15M 22MIN TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT AMPL - AMPLITUDE IN METERS FROM MIDDLE TO CREST OR MIDDLE TO TROUGH OR HALF OF THE CREST TO TROUGH PER - PERIOD OF TIME FROM ONE WAVE CREST TO THE NEXT EVALUATION SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. FOR THOSE AREAS - WHEN DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES. NO TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS FOR OTHER COASTAL AREAS IN THE INDIAN OCEAN ALTHOUGH SOME OTHER AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SMALL SEA LEVEL CHANGES. DUE TO ONLY LIMITED SEA LEVEL DATA FROM THE REGION IT IS NOT POSSIBLE FOR THIS CENTER TO RAPIDLY NOR ACCURATELY EVALUATE THE THE STRENGTH OF A TSUNAMI IF ONE HAS BEEN GENERATED. Sample Local Tsunami Watch Supplement (con’d)

  16. Sample Local Tsunami Watch Supplement (cont’d) ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES. ACTUAL ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST. THE TIME BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE TSUNAMI WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR. LOCATION COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME -------------------------------- ------------ ------------ INDONESIA SIMEULUE 2.5N 96.0E 0134Z 11 APR SIBERUT 1.5S 98.7E 0144Z 11 APR PADANG 0.9S 100.1E 0214Z 11 APR BANDA ACEH 5.5N 95.1E 0223Z 11 APR BENGKULU 3.9S 102.0E 0238Z 11 APR BANDAR LAMPUNG 6.0S 105.5E 0338Z 11 APR CILACAP 7.8S 108.9E 0351Z 11 APR BALI 9.0S 115.5E 0433Z 11 APR BELAWAN 3.8N 98.8E 0544Z 11 APR KUPANG 10.0S 123.4E 0549Z 11 APR THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FOR THIS EVENT.

  17. PTWC Preliminary Forecast Points

  18. FORECAST POINTS • USED TO DETERMINE IF AN AREA IS IN A WATCH • TSUNAMI ETA’S FOR FORECAST POINTS GIVEN IN BULLETINS IF AREA IS IN A WATCH • PRELIMINARY ONES TAKEN FROM ATLAS – NEEDS REVIEW BY MEMBER STATES • SHOULD BE RECOGNIZABLE PLACES • NEED ADEQUATE COVERAGE OF COASTS - ONE EVERY FEW HUNDRED KILOMETERS • NOT TOO MANY OR BULLETINS TOO LONG

  19. WMO (GTS) PRODUCT IDENTIFIERS FOR PTWC PRODUCTS IN THE INDIAN OCEAN

  20. COMMUNICATIONS PLAN for the INTERIM • TSUNAMI ADVISORY INFORMATION SERVICE • GENERAL REFERENCE MANUAL FOR THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY INFORMATION SERVICE • DESCRIPTION OF WARNING CENTERS’ PROCEDURES FOR ISSUING BULLETINS • DESCRIPTION OF BULLETINS AND THEIR MEANING • DESCRIPTION OF COMMUNICATION METHODS FOR MESSAGE DISSEMINATION • REFERENCE FOR DESIGNATED CONTACT POINTS OF EACH COUNTRY

  21. COMMUNICATIONS METHODS FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN • KEEP IT SIMPLER THAN IN THE PACIFIC • GTS AS THE BACKBONE SYSTEM • TELEFAX AND EMAIL AS ALTERNATE METHODS • CONFIRMATION OF RECEIPT? • PERSON-TO-PERSON TELEPHONE CONTACT SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED, BUT MAY BE USED

  22. MEDIA NOTIFICATION • MEDIA CAN AND WILL SUBSCRIBE TO PRODUCTS AND REPORT ON THEM • MEDIA CAN BE PARTNER TO QUICKLY ALERT PUBLIC • ACTIVATE PUBLIC / MEDIA PRODUCTS? • CONTROL OF PUBLIC / MEDIA MESSAGE • WHAT WOULD BE THE MESSAGE?

  23. MONTHLY COMMUNICATION TESTS • IDENTIFY THE MOST EFFECTIVE COMMUNICATION METHODS • VERIFY MESSAGE CIRCUITS WORKING (PRIMARY AND SECONDARY) • EXERCISE THE SYSTEM • MAINTAIN AWARENESS OF THE HAZARD

  24. Sample Communication Test TEST...TSUNAMI DUMMY – COMMUNICATIONS TEST...TEST PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS ISSUED AT 0315Z 11 APR 2005 FROM: PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER IN EWA BEACH HAWAII TO: TSUNAMI CONTACT POINTS FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTRIES IN THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION AUSTRALIA – NAME OF DESIGNATED CONTACT POINT BANGLADESH – NAME OF DESIGNATED CONTACT POINT FRANCE – NAME OF DESIGNATED CONTACT POINT INDIA – NAME OF DESIGNATED CONTACT POINT INDONESIA – NAME OF DESIGNATED CONTACT POINT IRAN – NAME OF DESIGNATED CONTACT POINT KENYA – NAME OF DESIGNATED CONTACT POINT MADAGASCAR – NAME OF DESIGNATED CONTACT POINT MALAYSIA – NAME OF DESIGNATED CONTACT POINT MALDIVES – NAME OF DESIGNATED CONTACT POINT MAURITIUS – NAME OF DESIGNATED CONTACT POINT . . --- ALL OTHERS PLEASE DISREGARD ---

  25. Sample Communication Test (cont’d) SUBJECT: TSUNAMI DUMMY (COMMUNICATION TEST). THIS IS A TEST TO VERIFY COMMUNICATION LINKS AND DETERMINE TRANSMISSION TIMES INVOLVED IN DISSEMINATION OF TSUNAMI ADVISORY INFORMATION TO THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION. RECIPIENTS ARE REQUESTED TO PLEASE RESPOND BACK TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER. THE RESPONSE SHOULD INCLUDE 1 - NAME OF OFFICE THAT RECEIVED THIS TEST 2 - METHOD OR METHODS BY WHICH OFFICE RECEIVED THIS TEST 3 - INCLUDE EMAIL ADDRESS OR FAX NUMBER OF EACH METHOD 3 - TIME OF RECEIPT OF THIS TEST BY EACH METHOD PLEASE RESPOND VIA ONE OF THE FOLLOWING EMAIL - PTWC@PTWC.NOAA.GOV TELEFAX - 808-689-4543 THANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION IN THIS COMMUNICATION TEST.

  26. 7. Tsunami Watch Information on M8.5 Sumatra Earthquake on 28 Mar. TSUNAMI WATCH INFOMATION NUMBER 001 ISSUED BY SEISMOLOGICAL AND VOLCANOLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (JMA) ISSUED AT 1723 28 MAR 2005 (UTC) 1. EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION ORIGIN TIME : 1610 28 MAR 2005 (UTC) COORDINATES : 2.3 NORTH 97.1 EAST LOCATION : NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA MAGNITUDE : 8.5 2. POSSIBILITY TSUNAMI GENERATION THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AN OCEAN-WIDE DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI IN THE INDIAN OCEAN Earthquake Information Possibility of Tsunami Generation * Tsunami Watch Information is considered subordinate to the Tsunami Warning in terms of both accuracy and timeliness 7 Japan Meteorological Agency 14 April 2005

  27. 9. Tsunami Watch Information on M8.5 Sumatra Earthquake on 28 Mar(continuation) 3. ESTIMATED TSUNAMI TRAVEL TIME ONE HOUR OR LESS INDIA: ALL COASTS OF ANDAMAN AND NICOBAR ISLANDS INDONESIA: INDIAN OCEAN COAST OF SUMATRA ONE HOUR TO THREE HOURS INDIA: BENGAL BAY COAST SRI LANKA: ALL COASTS THAILAND: MALACCA COAST AUSTRALIA: COCOS ISLANDS --- *snip* --- *TSUNAMI TRAVEL TIME IS ESTIMATED ONLY FROM EARTHQUAKE DATA AND INDICATES THE TIME LAPSE BETWEEN ORIGIN TIME AND TSUNAMI ARRIVAL TIME *THIS WILL BE THE FINAL INFORMATION UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES ABOUT THE POTENTIAL OF TSUNAMI GENERATION AND ESTIMATED TSUNAMI TRAVEL TIME BY RE-EVALUATION OF THE EARTHQUAKE OR THERE ARE REPORTS ON TSUNAMI OBSERVATIONS. Estimated Tsunami Travel Time 9

  28. 11. Reception of the Tsunami Watch Information • RegistrationDesignated governmental organization(s) /department(s) /officer(s) • - Available means of communication • 1. Internet mail • 2. Global Telecommunication System • (GTS) of the World Meteorological • Organization (WMO) • 3. Facsimile transmission • - Test Message 11 Japan Meteorological Agency 14 April 2005

  29. 12. Tsunami Watch Information for the M 6.8 Sumatra Earthquake on 10th APR 2005 TSUNAMI WATCH INFOMATION NUMBER 001 ISSUED BY SEISMOLOGICAL AND VOLCANOLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (JMA) ISSUED AT 1056 10 APR 2005 (UTC) 1.EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION ORIGIN TIME : 1029 10 APR 2005 (UTC) COORDINATES : 1.1 SOUTH 99.4 EAST LOCATION : SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA MAGNITUDE : 6.8 2.EVALUATION THERE IS A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A DESTRUCTIVE LOCAL TSUNAMI IN THE INDIAN OCEAN. *THIS WILL BE THE FINAL INFORMATION UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES ABOUT THE POTENTIAL OF TSUNAMI GENERATION AND ESTIMATED TSUNAMI TRAVEL TIME BY RE-EVALUATION OF THE EARTHQUAKE OR THERE ARE REPORTS ON TSUNAMI OBSERVATIONS. ***************************************************************** RECIPIENTS ARE INVITED TO CHECK THE MARCH 2005 ISSUE OF THE WORLD WEATHER WATCH OPERATIONAL NEWSLETTER FOR THE OBJECTIVES OF TWI. ***************************************************************** 12 Japan Meteorological Agency 14 April 2005

  30. Timing of issuance ofTsunami Watch Information The Tsunami Watch Information is expected to be issued with a target of less than 20 to 30 minutes after the occurrence of the earthquake, depending on the traffic condition of communication and the availability of seismic data. Subsequent Issues will be made as amendments and/or updates in consideration of newly available seismic data and reports on actual sea-level observations 13 Japan Meteorological Agency 14 April 2005

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