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Overview of KMA s Operational LRF Services. 2011. 12. 02 Korea Meteorological Administration. Long-range Forecast at KMA. x. x. x. Forecast period. X Issue date. Forecast Period. 1-month forecast. 3-month forecast. Seasonal outlook.
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Overview of KMAs Operational LRF Services 2011. 12. 02 Korea Meteorological Administration
x x x Forecast period X Issue date Forecast Period 1-month forecast 3-month forecast Seasonal outlook F 10 20 M 10 20 A 10 20 M 10 20 J 10 20 J 10 20 A 10 20 S
ENSO Forecast Statistical method Statistical method KMA El-Nino Model Statistical method Ensemble Process Based on Cross-validation - Calculate Hindcast Skill of 4 models at each grid point - Exclude models which Hindcast Skill is below than certain threshold. - Simple Ensemble Mean for the qualified models - Superior to other Ensemble Technique (Multiple Regression, Best Model)
Future Plan Joint Seasonal Forecasting system by KMA and Met Office Based on GloSea5(N216L85+O1/4L75) or GloSea4(N96L85+O1L75) - Jan. ~ Jun. 2012: Set up GloSea5 at CRAY(KMA) - Jun. 2012: Semi-operational run. - Jun. 2013: Operation of the new system! Probabilistic forecasts for both sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts - Tsfc, Precip - considering Tmin and Tmax (extreme events ?)