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Dagstuhl Workshop on Fresh Approaches for Business Process Modeling How “Cognitive Computing” can transform BP’s (and how we model them) Rick Hull IBM Research 9 May 2016. Fundamental characteristics and “centricities”. Centricity. Characteristics. Workforce Pyramid.
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Dagstuhl Workshop on Fresh Approaches for Business Process ModelingHow “Cognitive Computing” can transform BP’s(and how we model them)Rick HullIBM Research9 May 2016
Fundamental characteristics and “centricities” Centricity Characteristics Workforce Pyramid • Coordination/Collaboration • Decisions on Knowledge • Very ad hoc, intuitive Knowledge-centric Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes • Long-running • Many kinds of activities • Best practices hidden • Spreadsheets Goals-centric Transaction- Intensive Processes • Care & feeding of ERP • Variation, Evolution • Spreadsheets • Text-based process descriptions Data-centric However, all three aspects are relevant to all three levels
What is building on/coming after Data Science? “Cognitive Computing” – combining Big Data Analytics with Text/Image Processing, Learning, … Tata Consultancy “The world’s first neural automation system for the enterprise” • A cognitive system has the following capabilities • Monitor/Alert: Discovers patterns in data even if they are weak signals (“whispers”) • Analyze: Assesses relative value of alternative paths, using statistical evaluations • Decide/act: Advises on the optimal action to take • Adapts and learns from training and experiences • Important Cognitive System attributes • Ability to incorporate relevant contextual information, including new data • Deep natural language analysis, for info ingestion and human interaction • Learning in real time as data arrives • Can identify similar/related past experiences and learn from them • Explain/justify recommendations to humans IPSoft’s Amelia
Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Workforce Pyramid • Rapid exploration/ingestion of broad corpora of relevant (unstructured) information • Decision-making based on learned knowledge • Goals-based dynamic planning • (Enable guided collaboration of numerous autonomous agents) Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes Transaction- Intensive Processes • “Read” regulations and policies … … and map into processes Govt Reg’sCorp. Policies Define Processes • Capture “Digital Exhaust” … … and learn processes Care & Feeding of ERP System • Move from Spreadsheets to Case Mgmt and Business Rules … … so that humans can examine and tune auto-learned process • ERP System
Three (approximate) Levels of Business Operations & Processes Workforce Pyramid Examples • Build vs. Buy decisions • Merger & Acquisition decisions • Launch of a new kind of product • Large IBM deals that transform a company Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes • Fraud investigations in a Bank • Execution of Data Center Outsourcing deals Transaction- Intensive Processes • Back-office processing (e.g., payroll, F&A, …) • Supply Chain Management • Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), e.g., IBM GPS
Characteristics of the different levels Workforce Pyramid Characteristics Characteristics • Coordination/Collaboration • Decisions on Knowledge • Very ad hoc, intuitive Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes • Long-running • Many kinds of activities • Best practices hidden • Spreadsheets Transaction- Intensive Processes • Care & feeding of ERP • Variation, Evolution • Spreadsheets • Text-based process descriptions
Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Workforce Pyramid • Rapid exploration/ingestion of broad corpora of relevant (unstructured) information • Decision-making based on learned knowledge • Goals-based dynamic planning • (Enable guided collaboration of numerous autonomous agents) Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes Transaction- Intensive Processes • “Read” regulations and policies … … and map into processes Govt Reg’sCorp. Policies Define Processes • Capture “Digital Exhaust” … … and learn processes Care & Feeding of ERP System • Move from Spreadsheets to Case Mgmt and Business Rules … … so that humans can examine and tune auto-learned process • ERP System
Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Cognitive Computing is …. Workforce Pyramid Centricity Characteristics Design & Strategy Support • Coordination/Collaboration • Decisions on Knowledge • Very ad hoc, intuitive Knowledge-centric Judgement- Intensive Processes • Long-running • Many kinds of activities • Best practices hidden • Spreadsheets Transaction- Intensive Processes Goals-centric • Care & feeding of ERP • Variation, Evolution • Spreadsheets • Text-based process descriptions Data-centric
Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Cognitive Computing is …. Workforce Pyramid Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes Transaction- Intensive Processes
Challenges of the different levels Workforce Pyramid Characteristics • Coordinating open-ended, highly collaborative processes • Both humans and “cognitive agents” • Decisions made over time, based on extensive acquisition of knowledge • Some best practices but lots of intuition guiding activity Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes • Long-running activity (weeks to months to years) • Many kinds of activity that MAY be relevant • Best practices & patterns available, but buried Transaction- Intensive Processes • Mainly based on ERP systems, but … … many manual processes surrounding them • Lots of variation, evolution over time • In many companies – ad hoc, spreadsheet based
Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Workforce Pyramid Challenge Problems Characteristics • Coordination/Collaboration • Decisions on Knowledge • Very ad hoc, intuitive Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes • Long-running • Many kinds of activities • Best practices hidden • Spreadsheets Transaction- Intensive Processes • Care & feeding of ERP • Variation, Evolution • Spreadsheets • Text-based process descriptions
Automating the Pipeline from Knowledge Harvesting to Executable Logic in an Agile, Incremental Fashion Near-term focus of “Ops Accelerator” Long-term focus of “Ops Accelerator” Current Mode of Operation Client policies, Govt. regulations Client policies, Govt. regulations Client policies, Govt. regulations + Automatic Knowledge Harvesting Coarse-grained English process descriptions Coarse-grained English process descriptions Coarse-grained English process descriptions “Crowd Sourcing” + DesktopProcedures ExecutableLogic ExecutableLogic SAP code SAP code SAP code • Coordination by machine: • Monthly runs • Ancillary processes (new hire, …) • Coordination by machine: • Monthly runs • Ancillary processes (new hire, …) • Coordination by hand: • Monthly runs • Ancillary processes (new hire, …)
First model – A is and B is Power of a Good Model << animated slide >> Good models go beyond description – they support action • Selecting the right model for the job matters Example: “Game of 15” Winner: First one to reach exactly 15 with any 3 chips 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 – what is B’s move? Second model – – B’s move is 6!