Fundamental characteristics and “centricities”

1. Dagstuhl Workshop on Fresh Approaches for Business Process ModelingHow “Cognitive Computing” can transform BP’s(and how we model them)Rick HullIBM Research9 May 2016

2. Fundamental characteristics and “centricities” Centricity Characteristics Workforce Pyramid • Coordination/Collaboration • Decisions on Knowledge • Very ad hoc, intuitive Knowledge-centric Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes • Long-running • Many kinds of activities • Best practices hidden • Spreadsheets Goals-centric Transaction- Intensive Processes • Care & feeding of ERP • Variation, Evolution • Spreadsheets • Text-based process descriptions Data-centric However, all three aspects are relevant to all three levels

3. What is building on/coming after Data Science? “Cognitive Computing” – combining Big Data Analytics with Text/Image Processing, Learning, … Tata Consultancy “The world’s first neural automation system for the enterprise” • A cognitive system has the following capabilities • Monitor/Alert: Discovers patterns in data even if they are weak signals (“whispers”) • Analyze: Assesses relative value of alternative paths, using statistical evaluations • Decide/act: Advises on the optimal action to take • Adapts and learns from training and experiences • Important Cognitive System attributes • Ability to incorporate relevant contextual information, including new data • Deep natural language analysis, for info ingestion and human interaction • Learning in real time as data arrives • Can identify similar/related past experiences and learn from them • Explain/justify recommendations to humans IPSoft’s Amelia

4. Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Workforce Pyramid • Rapid exploration/ingestion of broad corpora of relevant (unstructured) information • Decision-making based on learned knowledge • Goals-based dynamic planning • (Enable guided collaboration of numerous autonomous agents) Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes Transaction- Intensive Processes • “Read” regulations and policies … … and map into processes Govt Reg’sCorp. Policies Define Processes • Capture “Digital Exhaust” … … and learn processes Care & Feeding of ERP System • Move from Spreadsheets to Case Mgmt and Business Rules … … so that humans can examine and tune auto-learned process • ERP System

6. Three (approximate) Levels of Business Operations & Processes Workforce Pyramid Examples • Build vs. Buy decisions • Merger & Acquisition decisions • Launch of a new kind of product • Large IBM deals that transform a company Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes • Fraud investigations in a Bank • Execution of Data Center Outsourcing deals Transaction- Intensive Processes • Back-office processing (e.g., payroll, F&A, …) • Supply Chain Management • Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), e.g., IBM GPS

7. Characteristics of the different levels Workforce Pyramid Characteristics Characteristics • Coordination/Collaboration • Decisions on Knowledge • Very ad hoc, intuitive Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes • Long-running • Many kinds of activities • Best practices hidden • Spreadsheets Transaction- Intensive Processes • Care & feeding of ERP • Variation, Evolution • Spreadsheets • Text-based process descriptions

8. Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Workforce Pyramid • Rapid exploration/ingestion of broad corpora of relevant (unstructured) information • Decision-making based on learned knowledge • Goals-based dynamic planning • (Enable guided collaboration of numerous autonomous agents) Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes Transaction- Intensive Processes • “Read” regulations and policies … … and map into processes Govt Reg’sCorp. Policies Define Processes • Capture “Digital Exhaust” … … and learn processes Care & Feeding of ERP System • Move from Spreadsheets to Case Mgmt and Business Rules … … so that humans can examine and tune auto-learned process • ERP System

9. Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Cognitive Computing is …. Workforce Pyramid Centricity Characteristics Design & Strategy Support • Coordination/Collaboration • Decisions on Knowledge • Very ad hoc, intuitive Knowledge-centric Judgement- Intensive Processes • Long-running • Many kinds of activities • Best practices hidden • Spreadsheets Transaction- Intensive Processes Goals-centric • Care & feeding of ERP • Variation, Evolution • Spreadsheets • Text-based process descriptions Data-centric

10. Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Cognitive Computing is …. Workforce Pyramid Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes Transaction- Intensive Processes

11. Challenges of the different levels Workforce Pyramid Characteristics • Coordinating open-ended, highly collaborative processes • Both humans and “cognitive agents” • Decisions made over time, based on extensive acquisition of knowledge • Some best practices but lots of intuition guiding activity Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes • Long-running activity (weeks to months to years) • Many kinds of activity that MAY be relevant • Best practices & patterns available, but buried Transaction- Intensive Processes • Mainly based on ERP systems, but … … many manual processes surrounding them • Lots of variation, evolution over time • In many companies – ad hoc, spreadsheet based

12. Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Workforce Pyramid Challenge Problems Characteristics • Coordination/Collaboration • Decisions on Knowledge • Very ad hoc, intuitive Design & Strategy Support Judgement- Intensive Processes • Long-running • Many kinds of activities • Best practices hidden • Spreadsheets Transaction- Intensive Processes • Care & feeding of ERP • Variation, Evolution • Spreadsheets • Text-based process descriptions

13. Automating the Pipeline from Knowledge Harvesting to Executable Logic in an Agile, Incremental Fashion Near-term focus of “Ops Accelerator” Long-term focus of “Ops Accelerator” Current Mode of Operation Client policies, Govt. regulations Client policies, Govt. regulations Client policies, Govt. regulations + Automatic Knowledge Harvesting Coarse-grained English process descriptions Coarse-grained English process descriptions Coarse-grained English process descriptions “Crowd Sourcing” + DesktopProcedures ExecutableLogic ExecutableLogic SAP code SAP code SAP code • Coordination by machine: • Monthly runs • Ancillary processes (new hire, …) • Coordination by machine: • Monthly runs • Ancillary processes (new hire, …) • Coordination by hand: • Monthly runs • Ancillary processes (new hire, …)

17. Backup

18. First model – A is and B is Power of a Good Model << animated slide >> Good models go beyond description – they support action • Selecting the right model for the job matters Example: “Game of 15” Winner: First one to reach exactly 15 with any 3 chips 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 – what is B’s move? Second model – – B’s move is 6!