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Diagnostics, Special Projects and Phenomena of Interest

Diagnostics, Special Projects and Phenomena of Interest. Review of 2 nd C20C Workshop for 3 rd C20C Workshop ICTP, Trieste, Italy, 21 April 2004. Forcing Fields. HadISST1.1 sea surface temperature and sea ice analysis 1870-present (natural + anthropogenic)

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Diagnostics, Special Projects and Phenomena of Interest

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  1. Diagnostics, Special Projects and Phenomena of Interest Review of 2nd C20C Workshop for 3rd C20C Workshop ICTP, Trieste, Italy, 21 April 2004

  2. Forcing Fields • HadISST1.1 sea surface temperature and sea ice analysis 1870-present (natural + anthropogenic) • Taylor procedure for true representation of monthly mean SST in daily interpolated values (optional) • Stratospheric volcanic aerosols in broad latitude bands after Sato et al. 1993 (natural) • CO2 specified as linear interpolation in time from a table of ~decadal values from Johns et al. 2001 (primarily anthropogenic) • Stratospheric O3 depletion per the SPARC time series and methodology (Randel and Wu 1999) (primarily anthropogenic) • ---- Jeff Knight presented a more comprehensive set

  3. Diagnostics Monthly means for each ensemble member (continuous or from 6-h data) • Zonal-mean U,V,T,q cross sections for all levels • 500 hPa and 200 hPa height • MSLP • Precipitation and evaporation • Temp. at 2m and 850 hPa • U,V at 850 and 200hPa • Total heat flux (net solar + net longwave + sensible + latent) • Zonal and meridional wind stress • Soil moisture index • THESE DATA ARE TO BE SHARED BY ALL PARTICIPATING MODELING GROUPS VIA DODS SERVERS

  4. Basic Statistics • Seasonal means and standard deviations (all prognostic variables) • Estimates of forced variability (using ANOVA after Rowell et el 1995, Q.J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.) for Z200, U850, MSLP, Precip., T2m • Linear trend 1950-1999 (or 1952-2001) for • Z500 DJF, T2m over land, precip. (global) • Regression map with NINO3.4 index(C) for ensemble means of Z500 and precip. for all seasons, using lag 0

  5. Key Time Series • SOI • NAO • PNA (MSLP proxy) • Global mean land surface (T2m) • Northern European Temperature Index • Rainfall (NE Brazil, All-India, Sahel ,North American Great Plains,SW Australia, Queensland, Caribbean, East Asian monsoon,Winter monsoon, …)

  6. Phenomena • Sahel rainfall trend • Decadal variations in European summer rainfall and anticylonicity • North American Great Plains drought (1930s-40s) • Interdecadal variability of Asian monsoon • Arctic warming (1910-1940) • 1976 tropical transition • Semi-arid regions, e.g. multi-year Afghan drought • Variations in lake levels (Caspian, Chad, Great Lakes, Great Salt Lake, …) • Response to warming of Indian Ocean • Extreme winters: • Europe 1939-41, 1962-63, … • N. America 1962-63, 1976-77 • Extreme wet periods • N. W. Europe autumn 2000 floods

  7. Special Projects • Trends in extremes • Interannual variability • Potentially predictable patterns • Origin of US Great Plains rainfall and drought • Leading NH EOFs and PDFs of PCs 1-2 • NAO and European-Atlantic blocking (particularly the PDF) • PNA/ENSO responses and Pacific blocking (particularly the PDF) • East-Asian monsoon • Predictability of rainfall anomalies • Trends in time series over the full 20th century in key quantities including global and regional T2m • MJO variations and trends • Origin of Indian and Sahel rainfall variability • Decadal changes in ENSO response • Extreme seasonal events • Runoff

  8. Proposed Procedure • Step 0 - Data sharing procedures • Step 1 - Consolidate/prioritize sub-projects • Step 2 - Solicit volunteers to coordinate sub-projects • Step 3 - Set tasks and deadlines

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