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**** Constructing Influence Diagram for EPA Decision on Potentially Carcinogenic Chemical Permit **

** Explore decision options - Permit, Restrict, Ban - based on hazards and imperfect information. Evaluate consequences, economic value, cancer risk, and uncertain events to make an informed choice. **

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**** Constructing Influence Diagram for EPA Decision on Potentially Carcinogenic Chemical Permit **

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  1. Constructing influence diagrams • Decision-maker: EPA • Decision: Permit use of potentially carcinogenic chemical? Alternative courses of action • Permit • Restrict • Ban • Uncertainty: hazards • Imperfect information: test and survey

  2. Consequences Value Decision Usage decision Economic value Net value Cancer cost

  3. Value Uncertain events Decision Consequences Usage decision Economic value Exposure rate Net value Cancer cost Cancer risk Carcinogenic potential

  4. Imperfect information Uncertain events Consequences Decision Value Test Usage decision Survey Economic value Exposure rate Net value Cancer cost Cancer risk Carcinogenic potential

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