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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 1 October 2012. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons. Outline. Highlights

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 1 October 2012 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over most regions north of the Equator, and over southern Brazil, Uruguay and northeastern Argentina. Above-average rainfall was found over northern Peru and northern Bolivia. • During 1-7 Oct 2012, above-average precipitation is predicted for Bolivia, Paraguay, extreme southern Brazil, Uruguay and northeastern Argentina. Below-average precipitation is predicted for central and southeastern Brazil and most of northern South America. • During 8-14 Oct 2012, above-average precipitation is predicted for northwest South America, Bolivia, Paraguay, and southern Brazil. Below-average precipitation is predicted for central Brazil and Uruguay.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over most regions north of the Equator, and over southern Brazil, Uruguay and northeastern Argentina. Above-average rainfall was found over northern Peru and northern Bolivia.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over most regions north of 28S. Above-average precipitation was found over portions of eastern Argentina and extreme southern Brazil.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall totals are clearly below average over the southern Amazon basin, Brazilian Plateau, and southern Brazil.

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies Above-average SSTs are observed in much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. (For more details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the period of 22-28 September 2012, anomalous upper-tropospheric cyclonic circulation (center indicated by red C) was observed over southern Brazil and northeastern Argentina. • Lower panels: Anomalous sinking motion (positive omega) was observed over southern Brazil, Uruguay and northeastern Argentina to the south of the cyclonic circulation center, consistent with the drier-than-average conditions over this region (see slide 4). A C Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days • During the 7-day period of 22-28 September 2012, temperatures were below average over western and southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and eastern Argentina. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 1 Oct. 2012 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 1 Oct. 2012 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (1-7 Oct 2012), above-average precipitation is predicted for Bolivia, Paraguay, extreme southern Brazil, Uruguay and northeastern Argentina. Below-average precipitation is predicted for central and southeastern Brazil and most of northern South America. • For Days 8-14 (8-14 Oct 2012), above-average precipitation is predicted for northwest South America, Bolivia, Paraguay, and southern Brazil. Below-average precipitation is predicted for central Brazil and Uruguay.

  13. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  14. Precipitation Climatology

  15. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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