一、从海关提供出口数据看棉纺织业当前的状况 What the Customs figures tell us about the spinning sector is:

善于在处“危”中抓“机” ，才能平稳过“冬”Seizing opportunities in crisis will steadily tide over the difficulty

一、从海关提供出口数据看棉纺织业当前的状况 What the Customs figures tell us about the spinning sector is: • 出口成本大幅上升，sharply higher export cost • 出口价格优势不再，end of price advantage • 出口需求疲软，weak export demand • 企业面临严峻考验 very tough challenges

1、2008年7月棉制品出口402.25亿美元，同比增长-0.03%。是近8年首次出现出口负增长。July export of cotton products declined 0.03% from a year ago to 40.225 bil USD, the first negative growth in eight years.

2005-2008年7月美元、折人民币出口增幅比较Export growth in terms of USD v.s RMB during 2005-2008

2005年7月-2008年7月棉制品净出口用纱量、用棉量与出口金额增幅同比Yarn/cotton use and export value in export of cotton products for July (05-08) Yarn use Cotton use Export value

2、原材料、能源价格不断上涨，劳动力价格等生产成本的持续上升、人民币升值步伐加快，加之节能减排等政策压力，企业出口成本上升了20%-30%.再加上因石油涨价，海运费上涨，使我们的成本优势不断下降。Rising cost of raw material, energy and labor, along with accelerating RMB appreciation and energy saving policy, result in a 20-30% increase in export cost. Surge in shipping rate further cuts competitiveness in cost.

（1） 从出口单价看企业承受的出口成本压力（2008年7月主要出口产品单价）The pressure of export cost in terms of unit price(July 2008)

2008年7月美元与折人民币出口单价同比增幅比较RMB equivalent unit price in July 2008

2004-2008年7月棉制服装出口数量同比增幅Export growth for cotton apparel in July (2004-2008,knitting/tatting) Knit apparel Tatting apparel

2008年1-7月棉制服装出口数量每月同比增幅比较Export growth for cotton apparels (Jan-Jul, 2008) Knit apparel Tatting apparel

2008年7月棉梭织服装同比减少出口2.2亿件，其中男、女长裤佔95%Woven apparel export dropped 220 mil pieces in July 2008, with man/woman trousers accounting for 95%. Year-on-year quantity changes Year-on-year price changes Knit apparel Woman trousers Man trousers

（2） 随着人民币升值歩伐加快，换汇成本不断提高。7月份同比上升了9.7%Accelerating RMB appreciation increases the exchange cost (2005-2008). It is up 9.7% in July 2008. Monthly exchange rate Cost in USD Change year-on-year

（3）2007-2008年7月纱、棉价差同比Price gap between yarn and cotton in July (2007/2008)

2008年1-7月棉纺织制品净出口用棉量同比增长约6.6%左右，增幅同比下降62%。净增用棉量同比下降55%左右。Cotton use of exported cotton products during the first seven months in 2008 increased 6.6%, but the growth rate fell 62%.Net cotton use declined 55%.

3、相当部分的企业限、停产，企业利润大幅下降，整个产业链处于资金紧缺中，企业面临严峻考验 。A big proportion of producers idle capacity or cease operation with much lower profit. Textile mills face severe challenge.

二、企业遭遇内外交困，其困难程度远远大于九十年代的处境。The current situation is worsen from that of in 90s • 金融震荡，石油、粮食危机，可能使国外市场的需求进一歩减弱； Financial volatility, oil and food crisis may further cut export demand • 人民币升值、资金短缺、工资、能源成本不断上涨等，将使企业经营环境越来越困难； RMB appreciation, credit restraint, rising labor and energy cost make the business even more difficult. • 企业现有的生产模式难于应对生产成本的不断提高； The current business mode can hardly cope with rising production cost. • 产业升级不是一朝一夕，而是漫长又痛苦的过程。 The upgrade of industry will experience a painful and long period.

三、善于在处“危”中抓“机” ，才能平稳过“冬”Seizing opportunities in crisis will steadily tide over the difficulty • 相信国家宏观调控会越来越务实； More practical macro control is expected to appear • 巨大的国内市场需求是支撑棉纺织健康、稳定发展的主动力； Huge domestic demand is the cornerstone of a healthy development of textile industry. • 企业的战略眼光、经营能力、组织效率要有创新思维，以适应新的市场环境变化。 Creativity in strategy, operation and efficiency is required to deal with challenges in new market environment. • 相信经历这次危机磨炼的棉纺织行业和企业将会更强大。 The industry will become stronger after this baptism.

一、从海关提供出口数据看棉纺织业当前的状况 What the Customs figures tell us about the spinning sector is: