Ruben G. Echeverría , Director General 6 December 2012 World Bank, Washington, D.C.

1. Better Foresighted than Myopic Opportunities for Agricultural Research in LAC Ruben G. Echeverría, Director General 6 December 2012 World Bank, Washington, D.C. www.ciat.cgiar.org Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor

2. Long-term World Population – 10,000 BC to 2150 2150 9.75 billion 2050 8.9 billion 2010 6.8 billion 1960 3.02 billion Eve of Green Revolution Billions 1930 2.07 billion Hybrid corn 1880 1.5 billion cf China, 1.3b in July 2010 10,000 BC 1-10 million Invention of agriculture Source: Pardey (2011) and United Nations (n.d. and 2004)

3. Growth Rates of Global Population, Agricultural Land Area, and Value of Agricultural Production, 1908–2008 1.68% 1.21% 0.88% 0.87% 0.82% 0.20% Source: Pardey (2011)

4. Global Public Agricultural R&D Pie, 1960 and 2009 1960 2009 5.5 billion (2005 PPP$) 58% 20% 48% 33.5 billion (2005 PPP$) 31%

5. Latin America: Food and Environmental Public Goods for the World? • Vast, underutilized areas suitable for agriculture • Abundant supplies of water and other natural resources • Highly diverse agro-ecologies and climates

6. Remarkable changes in recent decades in LAC • A global food basket: During the 2000s, LAC became the world’s main net food exporting region, reflecting the trade surpluses generated by Brazil and Argentina • Agricultural expansion: The region has contributed a third of the global increase in agricultural land (crops and pastures) since the 1960s • Consequences of land use change: LAC also accounted for two-thirds of global deforestation from 1990 to 2010

7. So, the scenario for agR&D in LAC is highly complex, going beyond small-scale production of staple crops • Agriculture’s shifting terrain: Changes in LAC’s agriculture have taken place against a background of large inequalities in land tenure • Urbanization of poverty: Concentrated in urban centers, as rural populations and agricultural employment have fallen significantly • Changes in NARIS and huge heterogeneity on R&D investments

8. Significant increases in global food demand will keep prices high; LAC to remain a net exporter. But, large margin of uncertainty… • Global integration and governance: Key questions concern the economy, financial vulnerability, and climate change negotiations • Growth trends: Many current projections suggest that GDP per capita will grow at rates exceeding the averages for the last 30 or 50 years • Population trends and consumption patterns: Continued urbanization is rapidly shifting concerns about poverty and food security to the cities

9. Complex Issues Entering the Agenda • Climate change: Extreme weather already presents a serious problem, which requires different adaptation and risk mitigation measures, including better water management • Energy: The prices of oil and agricultural commodities have shown a close correlation since at least the 1970s. The future of energy prices is highly uncertain • Technological developments: NARIs need to strengthen (a lot) to better positioning themselves within the broader science, technology, and innovation challenges

10. Six Scenarios for the Future of the Agriculture R&D

11. CIAT: A Partner in Global Research for a Food Secure Future • Our mission is to reduce hunger and poverty, and improve human health in the tropics through research aimed at increasing the eco-efficiency of agriculture • 400 professional staff, 200scientists working across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Over 140 hold a PhD /or Master’s degree. Of those 50 are young PhD / or Master’s students • One of the 4 Centers that started the CGIAR, CIAT was founded in 1967, and currently operates from Kenya, Vietnam and Colombia (HQ) Celebrating our 45th anniversary in 2012!

12. Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor Across the Tropics Cali, Since the 1960s, with a current focus on Central America, Colombia, and the Amazon Since the 1980s, with activities now in 29 African countries Since the 1990s, with activities now in China, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Thailand

13. Impact of CIAT’s Collaborative Research

14. Solutions through Research for Development

15. CGIAR Consortium

16. CGIAR Research Portfolio CIAT is active in 11 CGIAR Research Programs – including leadership of the Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS)

17. Three great opportunities for research • Strengthen national climate change adaptation and mitigation plans through research and technical support • Restoredegradedsoils and agroecosystemstoenhancetheproductivity, profitability and resilience of agriculturallandscapes • Leveragenew frontierresearchthrougha regional bioscienceplatformthatintegratesgeneticcollections, gene discovery, bioinformatics, and biosafetywithfutureplantbreedingtosupportnationalprograms and regional researchnetworks

18. Restoring Degraded Landscapes Source: Erb et al. (2007) • Pasture lands: • 30-45% of earth’s terrestrial surface (80% of all agricultural land) • 1/3 of arable land used for feed crop production • 70% of previously forested land in the Amazon

19. LivestockPlus as a Strategy Meat, milk & more! Potential to mitigate climate change and other co-benefits of forage-based systems

20. Sharing Rice Success in Tropical America • The Latin American Fund for Irrigated Rice (FLAR), formed in 1995, is an association of more than 30 public and private sector organizations representing 17 countries • FLAR researchers have demonstrated the potential for an agronomic revolution, in which farmers can raise average rice yields by as much as 2 tons through more precise crop management

21. Expanding CIAT’s Role in Incubating Agricultural Technology Biopacific Park • To promote projects that will generate added value and open new marketing opportunities • A total of 79 potential research lines connected to agribusiness • Around 1,400 professionals (400 PhD)

23. CIAT: ScienceforImpact Follow us: Website: www.ciat.cgiar.org Blog: www.ciatnews.cgiar.org/en/ http://twitter.com/ciat_ http://www.facebook.com/ciat.ecoefficient