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Alternative Modeling Considerations to Land Use Change

Alternative Modeling Considerations to Land Use Change. Presented by: Steffen Mueller Ken Copenhaver University of Illinois at Chicago Energy Resources Center Presented to: LCFS Expert Working Group Sacramento, CA July, 2010. Presented by: Steffen Mueller, PhD

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Alternative Modeling Considerations to Land Use Change

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  1. Alternative Modeling Considerations to Land Use Change Presented by:Steffen Mueller Ken Copenhaver University of Illinois at ChicagoEnergy Resources Center Presented to: LCFS Expert Working Group Sacramento, CA July, 2010 Presented by:Steffen Mueller, PhD University of Illinois at ChicagoEnergy Resources Center Presented to: Emerging Issues Forum Omaha, Nebraska April 8, 2010

  2. Determine Corn Supply Areas • Illinois River Energy Center (IRE): • 115 mgpy, located in Rochelle • Startup: 11/2008 • Corn Supply Area: Determined based on analysis of grower’s database supplying to plant • 43 mile radius around the plant would include in excess of 90% of the growers • Patriot Renewable Fuels (PRF): • 100 mgpy, located in Annawan • Startup: 9/2008 • Corn Supply Area: Determined based on interview with plant personnel. • 23 mile radius around the plant would include in excess of 90% of the growers

  3. Corn Acre Assessment Methodology • With the Draw Area established we combined USDA Cropland Data Layer with the circle file • Classification of all land other than crop was performed using the national land cover dataset • Acres in Corn were calculated using spatial data from the satellite classification • Additional Vetting was Performed: • ¾ acre buffer along roadways was subtracted and classified separately • Implausible conversions of ag to non-ag to ag use were classified separately

  4. Vetting Routine Test Samples:Narrow Tree Stands This seven acre area was classified as woodlands but appears to have been in agricultural production both years. Trees surrounding the field may lead to the mis-classification

  5. Roadways This 11 acre area of roadway between two agricultural fields was identified as agriculture one year and urban in another year. Areas like this are often mis-classified when assessing land use change and were therefore removed from the project analysis.

  6. What were 2008 Corn Acres in 2007 • The start up of PRF and IRE (expansion) did not prompt a conversion of non-agricultural to agricultural land (less than 1,000 acres were converted in the vicinity of either plant) • supporting the notion that corn ethanol plants have a weak influence on non-agricultural land conversions

  7. IRE&PRF Corn Acre History • Corn Acre History • Despite the start-up of both PRF and IRE (expansion) in the fall of 2008 acres in corn in 2008 went down • providing further evidence that the ethanol plants have a weak influence on corn rotations

  8. IRE&PRF Pasture/Grass/Hay Acres • Pasture/Grass/Hay Acre History • Additional grass/pasture/hay land would have been available for conversion to corn acres in the vicinity of either plant • supporting the notion that the studied corn ethanol plants have a weak influence on agricultural land use in general

  9. IRE&PRF Yield History Source: USDA NASS County Crop Yield Report. www.nass.usda.gov High prevailing corn yields in the area/low soybean prices may drive planting decision

  10. Illinois corn supply and use data shows that corn productionincreases on relatively constant corn acres were sufficient to • support both increasing exports • as well as corn for ethanol use.

  11. Absolute Energy LLC, St. Ansgar, IA • Start-up: February of 2008. • From 11/2008 to 8/2009 plant produced 96 mg of ethanol using 35 million bushels of corn

  12. Findings • Absolute Energy LLC did not, in all likelihood, contribute to the conversion of non agricultural land to agricultural land in the vicinity of the plant: • Small forest and grass/pasture/hay conversions occurred before and after the plant start-up. • Also, forest conversions are so small that they fall within the classification error of the data set.

  13. St. Ansgar Land Demand • Land Requirements with DDGS co-product credit total just 95,878 acres or 4% of total ag acres in area

  14. Corn Prices In the Supply Area

  15. Corn Prices in the Supply Area • 10 cents to deliver to River Terminal from Rochelle, 3 cents to deliver to IRE • IRE bids 2 cents less than the River • IRE assures that grower gets 5 cents more to deliver to IRE • On average IRE grower revenues increase by 5 cents • In order to assure constant supply and consistent (no heat damage, no off colored corn) quality of 120 trucks per day

  16. Summary Findings • The start up of PRF, IRE, and Absolute Energy did not prompt a conversion of non-agricultural to agricultural land • Despite slightly higher corn revenues for growers ethanol plants have a weak influence on corn rotations and agricultural land use in general • Land Requirements with DDGS co-product credit are small compared to corn supply areas surrounding the plants • In IL corn production increases on relatively constant corn acres were sufficient to support both increasing exports as well as corn for ethanol use.

  17. Questions • Steffen MuellerUniversity of Illinois at Chicago312-355-3982

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